You remember the 2018 Western Conference Finals, right? 27 missed threes in a row. It was a tragedy for Houston and a coronation for the Golden State dynasty. But if you think the Houston vs Golden State beef died when James Harden left Texas, you haven’t been watching the NBA lately.
It’s different now.
Gone are the days of iso-ball vs. the "Beautiful Game." In 2026, we’re looking at a fascinating clash of eras. You’ve got the Warriors trying to squeeze every last drop of greatness out of Stephen Curry while integrating a post-Klay Thompson identity involving Jimmy Butler. Then you have Houston, who basically spent three years in a dark room and emerged as this terrifying athletic monster.
The Recent Heat: Rockets 104, Warriors 100
Just look at their November 26, 2025, matchup. Houston walked into the Chase Center and snatched a win that felt like a statement. It wasn’t a blowout. It was a dogfight.
Reed Sheppard—yeah, the guy everyone thought was just a shooter—dropped a career-high 31 points. He looked like a young Steph against Steph. Honestly, watching him hit those clutch free throws with five seconds left to seal the 104-100 victory was a "passing of the torch" moment that nobody expected so soon.
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Golden State had a 14-point lead in the second half. They choked it away. Or maybe, more accurately, Houston just refused to go home.
Why the Styles Make This a Nightmare for the Dubs
The Warriors have always been about movement. Chaos. Gravity. But Houston is built to kill chaos.
- The Rebounding Gap: Houston is currently leading the league in offensive rebounds. Between Alperen Sengün and Steven Adams, they are basically bullying people. In their recent games, they’ve had an offensive rebounding rate in the 96th percentile. That’s absurd.
- The "Amen" Problem: Amen Thompson is a defensive nightmare. He’s 6'7" with the twitch of a point guard. When he’s on Steph, it’s not just a contest; it’s a 48-minute track meet.
- The KD Factor: We have to talk about Kevin Durant being in a Rockets jersey. It still feels weird, doesn't it? Seeing KD go up against Draymond Green isn't just a game—it's a psychological thriller. Durant is still putting up 28-30 points a night with ease, and Golden State's small-ball lineups struggle to find anyone who can actually bother his release point.
The Jimmy Butler Variable
Golden State isn't the same team that won in 2022. Adding Jimmy Butler changed their DNA. They’re grittier. They’re more comfortable in the mud. Butler provides that secondary rim pressure they lacked for years, which theoretically helps when teams over-index on Curry.
In the 2025 playoffs, these two teams met in the first round. It went seven games. SEVEN. Golden State eventually won 103-89 in Game 7, but Alperen Sengün looked like the best player on the floor for long stretches of that series, averaging double-doubles like they were going out of style.
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What the Standings Tell Us
Right now, as we head deeper into January 2026, both teams are fighting for oxygen in a stacked Western Conference.
- Houston Rockets: 23-14 (6th in the West)
- Golden State Warriors: 22-19 (8th in the West)
They’re separated by a hair. Every time they meet, it feels like a play-in preview. Houston has become a "home bully," losing only twice at the Toyota Center so far this season. If Golden State wants to move up the ladder, they have to figure out how to stop Sengün from acting like a 6'11" Nikola Jokic.
Strategic Nuance: What Most People Miss
People love to talk about the stars. Curry. Durant. Butler. But the Houston vs Golden State rivalry is actually decided by the "muck" players.
Dillon Brooks is still doing Dillon Brooks things. He’s the guy Warriors fans love to hate, and honestly, he thrives on it. His job is simple: make Steph’s life miserable. On the flip side, Brandin Podziemski has become the Warriors' Swiss Army knife. If Podziemski isn't hitting those "connector" threes or taking charges, the Warriors' offense often grinds to a halt.
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It’s also worth watching how Ime Udoka uses Jabari Smith Jr. He’s been a bit inconsistent—going 0-for-10 from three in a recent game against Portland—but his ability to switch onto perimeter players is the only reason Houston can stay in front of Golden State’s motion offense.
Key Matchup to Watch Next Time
When these two face off again on April 5, 2026, keep your eyes on the Sengün/Draymond matchup. Draymond is the defensive mastermind, but Sengün’s strength is now a legitimate problem for an aging Draymond. If Houston can keep the Warriors in the half-court and win the glass by a +10 margin, they win. Period.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors:
- Watch the Glass: If Houston records 15+ offensive rebounds, they almost always cover the spread. Golden State simply lacks the size to recover from second-chance points.
- The Reed Sheppard Effect: Keep an eye on his minutes. When he’s on the floor with Amen Thompson, Houston’s defensive rating sky-rockets, making the "Under" a very tempting play.
- Health Check: Check the status of Jimmy Butler’s knees and Steph’s ankles before tip-off. Golden State’s bench is thinner than in years past; they can’t survive a "load management" night against a team as young and fast as the Rockets.
- Home/Road Splits: Houston is a different animal at home. If the game is in Houston, lean toward the Rockets’ moneyline regardless of the Warriors' recent form.
The rivalry isn't just a relic of the past. It's the blueprint for the future of the West.