Honestly, if you’ve lived in Houston for more than a week, you know the drill. You leave the house in a heavy parka and come home in a t-shirt, probably sweating.
The houston texas extended weather forecast for the back half of January 2026 is leaning hard into that classic local chaos. We aren't just looking at a few clouds. We are looking at a tug-of-war between Canadian air mass leftovers and a Gulf that’s running way warmer than it usually does this time of year.
The Immediate Outlook: Chilly Weekends and Sunny Breaks
Right now, we are feeling the bite of a northern wind. Today, January 17, the temperature is hovering at a crisp 49°F, though with that 9 mph wind from the north, it feels more like 45°F.
It's clear. It's dry. The humidity is sitting at a measly 31%, which is basically desert levels for us.
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If you’re heading out tonight, keep the heavy layers handy. We’re expecting a low of 34°F. That is dangerously close to a freeze, especially for the folks out in Conroe or the northern suburbs. Tomorrow, Sunday, looks like a carbon copy: sunny skies, a high of 55°F, and another cold night at 33°F.
The MLK Day Pivot
Monday is where things start to shift. While we’ll start cold, the sun is going to push us up to 64°F. It’s the perfect "fake spring" day before the humidity decides to invite itself back over.
By Tuesday, January 20, the clouds return. The wind flips to the east, and we’ll see a high of 58°F. It’s the calm before the wet stuff hits.
Rain and the Humidity Surge: Mid-Week Reality Check
Wednesday, January 21, is looking like the messy day of the week. We’ve got a 75% chance of rain during the day. This isn't just a drizzle; it’s a soaking.
The temperature actually climbs because of the moisture, hitting a high of 64°F. The low that night is a balmy 58°F—notice how that’s the same as Tuesday's high? That’s the Gulf of Mexico waking up and pumping warm, wet air into the city.
The rest of the week is a bit of a rollercoaster:
- Thursday (Jan 22): Mostly sunny, 66°F.
- Friday (Jan 23): Mostly cloudy, hitting 71°F.
- Saturday (Jan 24): Partly sunny and a very un-January 73°F.
Why the "Extended" Part is Hard to Pin Down
Looking further out into the houston texas extended weather forecast, things get a little fuzzy. While the official 10-day data shows us dipping back into the 50s by January 27, the long-term climate signals are doing something interesting.
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La Niña is currently in the driver's seat. Traditionally, that means Texas stays warmer and drier. But 2026 is proving that "average" doesn't exist anymore.
Chief Meteorologist Anthony Yanez recently pointed out that we’ve seen ten record highs since December. The Gulf of Mexico is currently at its warmest levels since 1982. When the water is that warm, any southern wind acts like a heater for the city. It also adds fuel to any storm systems that roll through, making our "mild" rain events a lot more intense.
February Sneak Peek
According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac and recent NWS trends, February might actually be the month that bites back. They are predicting a very cold start to February (Feb 1-6) with "showers turning very cold."
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If you’re planning any outdoor events for early February, keep a close eye on the models. We’ve seen these late-season "blue northers" catch people off guard before.
How to Handle the Houston Seesaw
Living through a houston texas extended weather forecast requires a specific kind of mental and physical preparation. You can't trust the morning sky.
- Check the dew point, not just the temp. If the dew point is climbing into the 60s in January, expect fog and a "heavy" feeling to the air, even if it's not raining yet.
- Protect the pipes (one last time). We have a few nights this weekend (Jan 17-18) where northern areas will hit 33°F or lower. If you’re in a drafty house or have exposed pipes, it’s worth the five minutes of prep.
- Hydrate your plants. Weirdly, these dry, windy cold fronts can dehydrate your garden faster than a summer afternoon. Give your outdoor plants a good soak before the freeze hits.
- Allergies are coming. With highs hitting 71°F and 73°F by next weekend, the trees are going to get confused and start dumping pollen. If you’re a cedar fever sufferer, get your meds ready now.
The reality is that January in Houston is no longer just "winter." It’s a transition season that happens four times a month. Stay layered, stay dry on Wednesday, and enjoy those 70-degree days while they last—because in this city, the next cold front is always just a few days away.