The AFC South has a reputation. For years, people called it the "trash division," but if you've actually watched a Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars game lately, you know that narrative is dead. Dead and buried.
It’s personal now. Honestly, it hasn't been this spicy since the J.J. Watt era. We’re talking about a rivalry that features a 19-point blown lead, ejections for illegal hits, and two young quarterbacks who are basically the future of the conference.
People think they know this matchup. They look at the all-time record—which Houston leads 32–16—and assume the Texans just own the Jaguars. That’s a mistake. While the Texans dominated the 2010s, winning nine straight at one point, the last two seasons have been absolute chaos.
The Epic 2025 Meltdown at NRG Stadium
If you want to understand the current state of Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars, you have to look at November 9, 2025. This game was a fever dream.
Jacksonville was cruising. They had a 29–10 lead in the fourth quarter. Parker Washington was looking like an All-Pro with two touchdowns, and Trevor Lawrence was playing surgical football. Jaguars fans were already checking the standings.
Then, everything broke.
💡 You might also like: Por qué los partidos de Primera B de Chile son más entretenidos que la división de honor
Davis Mills—yes, Davis Mills, who was filling in for an injured C.J. Stroud (concussion)—decided to play the game of his life. The Texans' defense, which finished 2025 as one of the best in the league, turned into a brick wall. Jacksonville managed only 11 total yards in the entire fourth quarter.
The ending was pure insanity. Mills scrambled 14 yards for a touchdown with 31 seconds left to take a one-point lead. Then, as Lawrence tried to lead a desperate comeback, he was sacked, fumbled, and Sheldon Rankins returned it for a touchdown on the final play. Final score: 36–29. It was the largest blown lead in Jaguars history.
Why the Quarterback Duel is Legitimate
Forget the "game manager" labels. Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud are the real deal. In 2025, they both put up numbers that silenced the skeptics:
- Trevor Lawrence: 4,007 yards, 29 touchdowns, and a career-high 9 rushing scores.
- C.J. Stroud: 3,041 yards in 14 games, with a completion percentage (64.5%) that kept the Texans' offense efficient even when the deep ball wasn't there.
What’s interesting is how they play differently against each other. Stroud thrives on timing. He waits for Nico Collins—who has become a certified "Jags killer" with five straight 100-yard games against them—to find the soft spot in the zone. Lawrence, under new OC Liam Coen, has become more of a dual-threat, using his legs to punish the Texans' aggressive front four.
The "Bad Blood" Factor
This isn't a friendly rivalry. It’s physical. Gritty.
📖 Related: South Carolina women's basketball schedule: What Most People Get Wrong
Remember the Week 13 game in 2024? Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair delivered an illegal hit on a sliding Trevor Lawrence that sparked a full-blown sideline brawl. Al-Shaair got suspended for three games. That incident shifted the tone of Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars from "divisional game" to "grudge match."
When these teams meet in 2026, don't expect many handshakes. The Jaguars feel like they should have swept the series in 2025 (they won the first meeting 17–10 in September). Instead, they split it, and that loss in Houston played a huge role in the Texans finishing 12–5, just one game behind the Jaguars (13–4) for the division title.
Defensive Chess Matches
You can't talk about this matchup without mentioning the trenches. Will Anderson Jr. has become a nightmare for the Jaguars' offensive line. In their most recent meeting, his pressure late in the game was the catalyst for the Lawrence fumble.
On the flip side, Josh Hines-Allen has basically lived in the Texans' backfield. In the September 2025 matchup, he "completely wrecked" the Houston offense, leading to a three-interception day for the Texans' quarterbacks.
What Most People Get Wrong
The biggest misconception is that the Texans are "rebuilding" and the Jaguars are "arriving."
👉 See also: Scores of the NBA games tonight: Why the London Game changed everything
The truth? Both teams arrived at the same time. For the first time in their mutual history, both the Texans and Jaguars made the playoffs in the same season (2025). They aren't chasing the rest of the AFC anymore; they are the ones being chased.
Jacksonville has found a weapon in Brian Thomas Jr., while Houston’s Jayden Higgins has emerged as the perfect secondary option to Nico Collins. These teams are mirror images of each other—young, aggressive, and led by coaches who aren't afraid to gamble on fourth down.
Actionable Insights for 2026
If you’re betting on or watching the next Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars showdown, keep these specific factors in mind:
- Watch the Nico Collins Matchup: Until the Jaguars prove they can cover him, the Texans will feed him 10+ targets. Jarrian Jones and the Jags' secondary have struggled to contain his size in the red zone.
- Monitor the Injury Report: Both teams' 2025 seasons were heavily impacted by key absences (Stroud's concussion, Ezra Cleveland's knee). Depth is the deciding factor in late-season AFC South games.
- The Cam Little Edge: Jacksonville has a massive advantage in the kicking game. Cam Little has become one of the most reliable legs in the NFL, hitting 50+ yarders with ease. In a rivalry where the average margin of victory is narrowing, three points is everything.
- Fourth Quarter Yardage: Look at the "total yards" stat in the final 15 minutes. In their last three meetings, the team that outgained the other in the fourth quarter won the game. Simple, but overlooked.
The 2026 season is shaping up to be another battle for the AFC South crown. Whether it’s at EverBank Stadium or NRG, expect high stakes and probably a little bit of jawing at the 50-yard line.
Keep an eye on the official NFL schedule release in May to see when these two are slated to meet—divisional games in December usually carry the most weight for playoff seeding.