It used to be a joke. For years, if you were a Texans fan, looking at the schedule for Houston Texans vs Colts matches felt like a scheduled dental appointment—unpleasant and largely predictable. Between 2002 and 2010, the Colts won the first nine meetings. Peyton Manning treated Houston like a personal scrimmage. But things have shifted. Hard.
The dynamic in the AFC South isn't just different; it's unrecognizable from the days of Manning and Andrew Luck. As of January 2026, the Texans have officially flipped the script, riding a dominant five-game winning streak against Indianapolis.
The C.J. Stroud Era Changes Everything
Honestly, the rivalry didn't truly "arrive" until C.J. Stroud did. Before him, Houston was cycling through quarterbacks like a bad Tinder habit. Now? They have a guy who tied John Elway for the most wins by a top-two pick in his first three seasons.
The most recent clash on January 4, 2026, was a perfect example of why this matchup is now appointment television. The Texans took down the Colts 38-30 to finish the 2025 regular season with a 12-5 record. It wasn't just a win; it was a statement. Stroud accounted for two scores before the half, and Ka'imi Fairbairn—who basically doesn't miss these days—iced it with a late field goal.
But if you’re looking at why Indy keeps coming up short, you have to look at the revolving door behind center.
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Since 2015, the Colts have started 11 different quarterbacks against the Texans. Eleven. That is insane. In the most recent game, they were rolling with rookie Riley Leonard. He’s the 11th name on that list. Meanwhile, Houston has found its identity under DeMeco Ryans, who just set a franchise record for the most wins in a coach's first three years.
What Most People Get Wrong About the History
People look at the all-time series record—Colts lead 33–15–1—and think Indy still owns the division. They don’t. That record is heavily weighted by the 2000s when the Texans were an expansion mess.
If you look at the last three seasons, the Texans are the ones doing the "owning."
- September 2024: Texans won 29-27.
- October 2024: Texans won 23-20.
- November 2025: Texans won 20-16.
- January 2026: Texans won 38-30.
It’s a five-game streak that has completely silenced the "Little Brother" narrative in Houston.
The games are closer than the scores suggest, though. Take that November 2025 meeting. Daniel Jones (yes, he was in Indy by then) was actually keeping it competitive until a late pass interference call on Kenny Moore II basically handed Nico Collins a 7-yard touchdown. The margin for error in these divisional games is basically zero.
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The Defensive Shift
Most people talk about the QBs, but Houston’s defense is the real reason the Colts are struggling to keep up. In 2025, the Texans led the league in scoring defense, giving up just 16.6 points per game.
They’ve become a unit that thrives on "bend-don't-break" football. In the November '25 game, Jonathan Taylor—who is still a monster—rushed for 121 total yards, but he couldn't find the end zone. Houston’s linebackers, led by Azeez Al-Shaair, have figured out how to neutralize Indy’s ground game when it matters most.
And then there's the "Togei" moment. In the Week 18 finale of the 2025 season, the game ended on a bizarre defensive highlight where Togi (the humongous human, as announcers called him) snatched a lateral attempt during a desperate Colts final play to seal the 38-30 victory. It was a chaotic, beautiful mess that summed up how the rivalry looks right now: Houston finds a way; Indy finds a heartbreak.
Key Stats to Know for the Next Matchup
If you're betting or just arguing with friends at a bar, keep these numbers in your back pocket:
- The Home Field Myth: The Colts used to be invincible at Lucas Oil, but the Texans have won their last three trips to Indianapolis.
- Rushing After Contact: Texans RB Woody Marks posted 319 yards after first contact in 2025. He's a nightmare for an Indy defense that has struggled with tackling consistency.
- Third Down Discrepancy: In the 2025 series, Houston converted nearly 40% of their third downs, while Indy hovered around 30%. That’s where games are won.
Actionable Insights for Fans
Basically, if you’re following this rivalry in 2026, stop looking at the Peyton Manning years. They’re irrelevant.
- Watch the Injury Report for the O-Line: Houston went two full games without allowing a sack at the end of 2025. If that line stays healthy, Stroud is untouchable.
- Target the Props: Nico Collins and Tank Dell consistently feast on the Colts' secondary, which ranked 28th in pass defense last season.
- Don't Count Out the Rookies: With Indy's quarterback situation still in flux (Riley Leonard being the latest experiment), expect them to rely heavily on Jonathan Taylor. If Taylor gets under 20 carries, Houston wins. Every time.
The rivalry has finally balanced out. It’s no longer a blowout; it’s a grudge match. Whether it's at NRG or Lucas Oil, the days of the Colts walking all over the Texans are officially in the rearview mirror.