Golf in the spring just hits different. Maybe it’s the way the humidity starts to sit heavy over the Texas Bayou or how the greens at Memorial Park Golf Course begin to look like glass by Sunday afternoon. We are heading into the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, and if you've been following the PGA Tour this season, you know the vibe is shifting. The Masters is just a couple of weeks away. Players are either frantically trying to find their swing or they’re basically just trying to stay healthy before driving down Magnolia Lane.
Memorial Park is a beast. It’s a par 70 that stretches over 7,400 yards, which is honestly a lot of golf for a course with only three par 5s. Most muni courses aren't this mean. Tom Doak’s redesign turned this public track into a place where "saving par" is a lifestyle, not just a goal. If you are looking at Houston Open golf picks, you have to start with the guys who can handle long iron shots into firm, elevated greens.
The Heavy Hitters and the "Scottie Factor"
Look, we have to talk about Scottie Scheffler. It’s unavoidable. The guy has been a machine for three years now. Coming into 2026, he’s already chasing his 20th career win to secure lifetime membership on Tour. He nearly won here in 2024, finishing second by a single stroke after a wild Sunday.
But here is the thing: Scottie's price is always so short it’s almost not worth the squeeze in the betting market. At +300 or +400, you’re basically betting on a coin flip where the coin has a slight bias. He’s the best ball-striker in the world, ranking 1st in Strokes Gained: Approach, but even he can get "Houston-ed" by these undulating greens.
Rory McIlroy is the other big name lurking. He’s had a bit of a weird start to 2026, but his length is a massive advantage here. Memorial Park rewards guys who can carry the ball 310 yards over the corners of the doglegs. If the wind stays down, Rory can dismantle this place. If it blows? Well, that’s when things get spicy.
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Why Aaron Rai is the "Smart Money" Selection
If you want to sound like you actually know what you’re talking about at the 19th hole, mention Aaron Rai. Seriously. The guy lives for this specific type of grass.
Rai has finished in the top 10 in his last two trips to Houston. He’s currently leading the Tour in "Good Drive Percentage" at roughly 88%. On a course where the rough can be unpredictably thick and the run-offs are brutal, staying in the fairway is everything. He’s not the longest hitter, but he’s basically a surgeon with a 7-iron.
Last year, Min Woo Lee took this title with a blistering -20 under par, which was honestly a bit of an outlier compared to Tony Finau’s win at -16 or Jason Kokrak’s -10. The Tour setup for 2026 is rumored to be much firmer. They want to test the guys before the Masters. That plays right into the hands of a high-ball hitter like Rai or even someone like J.J. Spaun, who has been quietly putting up top-15 finishes all January and February.
Statistics That Actually Matter This Week
Most people just look at who won last week. That’s a mistake. Houston is about three specific things:
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- Proximity from 200+ Yards: You’re going to have a lot of long irons into par 4s. Guys like Kurt Kitayama and Mark Hubbard actually lead the field in this "boring" stat.
- Bogey Avoidance: You can’t win here if you’re making doubles. Michael Kim and Scottie Scheffler are the kings of the "boring par."
- Bermuda Putting: These greens are grainy. If you grew up playing on Poa annua in California, you might struggle to read the breaks at Memorial Park.
The Longshots Nobody is Talking About
Everyone loves a sleeper. Honestly, it’s the best part of making Houston Open golf picks.
Keep an eye on Thomas Detry. He’s one of those guys who seems to always be in the mix on Thursday and Friday before fading, but his metrics on Bermuda greens are elite. He’s currently 3rd in SG: Putting on this surface over his last 50 rounds. At +5000 or higher, he’s a fun "each-way" play.
Then there is the local hero angle. Sahith Theegala is always a threat in Texas. He’s got that "creative" game that works well when you miss a green and have to invent a shot from a tight lie. He’s the kind of player who can shoot a 63 or a 75, and honestly, that’s why we love him.
What Could Go Wrong?
The weather in Houston during late March is basically a coin toss. One minute it’s 80 degrees and sunny, the next you’re dealing with a "norther" that drops the temp by 20 degrees and brings 30 mph gusts. If you see the wind picking up in the forecast, throw out the guys who rely on high, towering shots. You’ll want the "grinders"—the guys like Shane Lowry or even a resurgent Jordan Spieth, who can flight the ball low and scramble like their life depends on it.
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Final Thoughts for Your Betting Card
Don't go overboard on the favorites. The Houston Open has a weird history of producing first-time winners or guys who were "due" for a comeback.
My Actionable Advice:
Focus your "Outright Winner" picks on players who rank in the top 20 for Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. You cannot play this course from the trees. If you’re playing Daily Fantasy (DFS), look for "value" guys like Doug Ghim or Alex Smalley. They both have incredible ball-striking numbers but often get overlooked because they don't have a big trophy on the mantel yet.
- Top Pick: Aaron Rai (Top 10 Finish).
- The "Heart" Pick: Scottie Scheffler (He's just too good to ignore, even if the odds are bad).
- The Dark Horse: Thomas Detry (Look for a Top 20 market here to play it safe).
Before the first tee time on Thursday morning, check the late "Withdrawals." This time of year, guys often pull out with "neck stiffness" (code for: I want to go practice at Augusta early). If the field thins out, the value on the mid-tier guys actually gets better.
Next Steps for Your Research:
Verify the final field list on Monday evening to ensure your picks are actually playing. Check the Wednesday afternoon weather report for any significant "wind gusts" that might favor the early or late tee-time waves.