Honestly, if you’ve lived in Southeast Texas for more than five minutes, you know that looking at a Houston extended weather forecast is basically a local pastime. It’s a mix of hope, anxiety, and the inevitable realization that the atmosphere here has a mind of its own. Right now, as we sit in the middle of January 2026, the city is caught in that classic winter tug-of-war.
One day you’re looking for a light jacket, and the next, you’re wondering if the pipes are going to freeze. We aren't in a full-blown "Arctic Outbreak" like the 2021 nightmare, but the air is definitely crisp enough to notice.
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The Immediate Outlook: Chill is the New Norm
Today, Saturday, January 17, we are sitting at a high of 56°F. It’s sunny, which is great for the soul, but a 12 mph wind coming straight from the north is keeping things feeling a lot more like 52°F. If you’re heading out tonight, grab the heavy coat. We are looking at a low of 38°F.
The big talk around the water cooler—or the group chat—is the light freeze potential for Sunday morning. Local meteorologists like Anthony Yanez over at KPRC have been tracking a cold front fallout that’s bracing the city for a chilly weekend. Most of the city will stay just above freezing, but if you’re out in Katy or northwest toward Liberty, you might wake up to some frost on the windshield.
Tomorrow, Sunday, January 18, stays cool with a high of 57°F and a low of 37°F. It's perfect "stay inside and watch the playoffs" weather.
Houston Extended Weather Forecast: The Next 10 Days
Looking further out into the week, we see the typical Houston roller coaster. Monday, January 19, which is MLK Day, brings a nice little warm-up. We should hit 64°F with plenty of sunshine.
But don't get too comfortable in those short sleeves.
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By the middle of the week, the humidity starts creeping back up, and with it comes the rain. Wednesday, January 21, looks like the soggiest day on the horizon. We’re talking a 75% chance of rain with a high of 63°F. It’s that gray, misty Houston rain that makes the Loop a nightmare during rush hour.
Late Week Warming Trend
By Friday, January 23, the temperature jumps up to a balmy 72°F. It’s wild. We go from a near-freeze on Sunday to 70-degree weather by the following Friday. This is exactly why the Houston extended weather forecast is so hard to pin down. You’ve basically got to prepare for two different seasons in a single work week.
- Saturday (Jan 24): High of 72°F, but expect some light rain to hang around.
- Sunday (Jan 25): We start cooling down again. High of 67°F, but the overnight low drops back to 43°F.
- Monday (Jan 26): Back to the 50s. A high of 53°F and a breezy north wind.
The La Niña Factor and Long-Term Trends
Why is it so inconsistent? Well, NOAA and the National Weather Service have been pointing toward a weak La Niña this winter. Usually, for us, that means "warmer and drier than normal," but "normal" is a tricky word in meteorology.
As Matt Lanza from Space City Weather often points out, even a "warm" winter can have its share of sharp cold snaps. The current data suggests we’ll transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by the spring of 2026. Until then, we’re at the mercy of these Canadian cold fronts that occasionally dip far enough south to remind us that it is, in fact, January.
What You Actually Need to Do
Stop obsessing over the 14-day outlook. In Houston, anything past day seven is basically a coin toss. However, based on the current data for late January, here is the move:
Keep the frost blankets ready for your sensitive plants through Sunday night. After that, you can probably put them away for at least a week. If you have outdoor plans for next weekend, Saturday looks warmer but potentially wetter, so have a backup plan for the kids' birthday parties or those backyard BBQs.
Most importantly, keep an eye on the humidity levels mid-week. When it jumps from 29% on Sunday to 89% on Wednesday, your sinuses are going to feel it. It’s just the price we pay for living in the Bayou City.
Stay warm, keep the umbrella in the car, and maybe check the forecast one more time before you go to bed. You know, just in case.