Honestly, if you've lived in Houston for more than a week, you know the drill. You wake up and it’s basically autumn. By lunchtime, you're sweating through a t-shirt in 75-degree humidity. Then a "blue norther" screams through town and suddenly you’re digging for that one heavy coat you bought during the 2021 freeze.
Right now, looking at the houston 30 day weather outlook for late January into February 2026, things are getting weird. Usually, we expect a gray, soggy mess. But this year? The weak La Niña that's been hanging around like an uninvited house guest is finally packing its bags.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, there’s a 75% chance we're transitioning to "ENSO-neutral" territory between now and March. For us on the ground, that means the "warm and dry" winter we were promised is starting to show some real cracks. We just saw record-setting rain on January 8th and 9th, with some spots around the region picking up over 2 inches in a single day. That's not just a drizzle; that’s a "wipers on high" Houston special.
The Reality of Houston 30 Day Weather Right Now
So, what does the next month actually look like? If you're planning a wedding or just trying to wash your car, you need to look at the patterns, not just the daily icons on your phone.
Currently, we’re sitting in a bit of a chillier pocket. Today, Saturday, January 17th, it’s mostly cloudy with a high of about 56°F. It feels like real winter for once. The wind is coming out of the north at 8 mph, keeping that bite in the air.
But don't get used to it.
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The forecast for the next week is a classic Houston rollercoaster.
- Sunday (Jan 18): Sunny and crisp. High 57°F, low 38°F. Perfect patio weather if you have a heater.
- Monday (Jan 19): Warming up to 63°F. The sun stays out, but the wind starts shifting to the south.
- Wednesday (Jan 21): This is the day to watch. We’re looking at a 75% chance of rain with a high of 64°F and a low of 58°F. Humidity is going to spike to 87%. Basically, the air you can wear is coming back.
The rest of the month stays in this "mild but temperamental" zone. We aren't seeing any signs of a massive Arctic outbreak—the kind that breaks pipes—but Eric Berger over at Space City Weather has been tracking a potential light freeze for some outlying areas. It’s that "fool’s spring" vibe where you want to plant flowers, but the atmosphere says, "Hold my beer."
Why the Humidity is Acting So Weird
Usually, January is our driest month. Or close to it. But with the La Niña weakening, the jet stream is wobbling. This allows more moisture from the Gulf to creep back in earlier than usual.
If you look at the historical data from Bush Intercontinental (IAH), the average high for late January is 63.8°F. We’re actually trending slightly above that. Through the first half of January 2026, Houston averaged about 62.6°F, which is nearly 10 degrees above "normal." It feels more like mid-November.
What Most People Get Wrong About Houston Winters
People from up north laugh when we talk about "winter." They think if it isn't snowing, it isn't cold.
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They're wrong.
Houston cold is a damp, bone-chilling cold. When that 22% humidity we’re seeing today jumps back up to 80% next week, a 45-degree morning feels significantly worse than a 30-degree morning in Denver. It’s the moisture. It sticks to you.
Also, can we talk about the "30-day" myth? Most people check a 30-day forecast and take it as gospel. In Southeast Texas, a forecast beyond 7 days is basically a vibe check. The interaction between the Gulf of Mexico and the Great Plains is too chaotic. One shifted cold front and your "sunny Tuesday" becomes a "flash flood Tuesday."
Breaking Down the February Outlook
As we move into February, the Old Farmer’s Almanac and local meteorologists are pointing toward a "warmer than normal" trend.
Expect February to be about 3 degrees above average. That puts our typical highs in the upper 60s. Precipitation might actually drop off a bit in the second half of the month, which is great for the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo. Nobody likes a muddy carnival.
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But watch out for the first week of February. There's a signal for a "turning very cold" period around Feb 1-6. If we're going to get one last gasp of winter, that's the window.
How to Actually Prepare for the Next 30 Days
Since the houston 30 day weather is looking like a mix of "light jacket" and "umbrella required," you've gotta be tactical.
First, stop trusting the "sunny" icon three weeks out. It means nothing. Instead, watch the dew point. When you see the dew point climbing into the 60s in January, you know rain or fog is coming within 24 hours.
Second, check your tires. Houston roads are notoriously slick during the first rain after a dry spell because the oil and grime build up. With 75% rain chances on the horizon for Wednesday, it’s going to be a mess on I-45.
Finally, keep the frost cloth handy. Even if it stays in the 60s for ten days straight, a single night at 31°F can kill your hibiscus. The transition to ENSO-neutral makes these "surprise" freezes more likely because the weather patterns are less predictable than they are during a strong La Niña.
Actionable Insights for the Next Month:
- Plan outdoor events for Jan 18-19: These look like the most stable, clear days in the immediate forecast.
- Prepare for a "Washout Wednesday": The Jan 21st system looks beefy. Plan for extra commute time and keep the umbrella in the car.
- Watch the Feb 1-6 window: This is the most likely time for a significant temperature drop. If you have sensitive plants, have a plan ready.
- Don't pack away the summer gear: With highs hitting 70°F by Jan 24th, you'll still need those lighter layers.
The best way to handle Houston's weather is to treat it like a moody teenager. Don't make any long-term assumptions, keep your options open, and always have a backup plan for when it inevitably changes its mind.