Waking up in Rockville often feels like a guessing game. You look out the window at 6:00 AM, see a gray sky, and assume you’re set for a drizzly commute down Rockville Pike. Fast forward three hours, and the sun is blinding you as you try to find your sunglasses in the glovebox. Honestly, the hourly weather Rockville MD provides is less of a steady timeline and more of a mood ring.
If you've lived here long enough, you know that being "weather-ready" doesn't mean carrying an umbrella; it means having a car trunk filled with three different weights of jackets. Currently, as of early Saturday morning on January 17, 2026, we’re sitting at a chilly 36°F. But here’s the kicker—it actually feels like 28°F because of a steady 8 mph wind coming out of the south.
The Saturday Breakdown: Rain, Snow, or Both?
Today is a perfect example of why checking the hourly updates matters more than the daily summary. If you just glanced at your phone and saw "45 degrees," you’d think it was a decent winter day for a walk at Rock Creek Park. But the data tells a messier story.
- The Morning Slog: We’re starting with heavy cloud cover.
- The Peak: We’ll eventually hit a high of 45°F, which sounds warm, but it comes with a 68% chance of light rain during the day.
- The Night Shift: Once the sun goes down, things get interesting. The temperature drops back toward a low of 33°F, and that rain has a 40% chance of turning into snow.
Basically, if you’re planning to be out late near Rockville Town Square, you might leave in a raincoat and come home in a light flurry. It’s that weird transition zone that Maryland is famous for—too warm for a snow day, but just cold enough to make the air feel like a damp towel.
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Why Rockville Weather is So Unpredictable
You’ve probably noticed that sometimes it’s pouring in King Farm while it’s perfectly dry down in Bethesda or up in Gaithersburg. It’s not your imagination. The geography of Montgomery County creates these little micro-pockets of weather.
Rockville sits at an elevation of about 450 feet. While that doesn't sound like much, it's enough to catch different wind patterns than the lower-lying areas closer to the Potomac River. The wind right now is coming from the south, but it’s expected to shift to the southwest at 9 mph later today. That shift is exactly what’s bringing in the moisture that will likely turn into that 68% chance of rain.
January Expectations vs. Reality
Historically, January is our "deep freeze" month. We usually expect highs around 40°F and lows near 25°F. Today’s high of 45°F is actually a bit above the average, which explains why we’re seeing rain instead of a total whiteout.
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Most people around here follow the Capital Weather Gang or MoCoSnow for the drama, but for the day-to-day "Should I wear my boots?" decision, the hourly humidity—which is currently at 42% but will jump to 58% later—is the real metric to watch. High humidity in the winter makes that 36°F feel significantly more "bone-chilling" than a dry 20°F in a place like Colorado.
Survival Tips for the Rockville Commute
If you’re heading out today, don’t trust the morning sky. The south wind is keeping things stable for the moment, but that nighttime low of 33°F is right on the freezing line.
- Check the UV Index: It’s currently at 0, and it’s staying there. You don’t need sunscreen today, but you definitely need visibility. Cloudy conditions combined with light rain can make the I-270 merge even more chaotic than usual.
- Watch the Wind Direction: That shift to the southwest is a signal that warmer, wetter air is moving in. It’s the reason for the rain today, but also the reason we aren't seeing a massive ice storm.
- Footwear Choice: Since the ground is currently dry but rain is a certainty by mid-day, go with something waterproof. Wet sneakers at 36°F is a recipe for a miserable afternoon.
Rockville weather is a moving target. Tomorrow, Sunday, January 18, is looking even colder with a high of only 34°F and persistent clouds. If you have errands to run or groceries to grab at the Wegmans or Trader Joe’s, do it before the rain starts this afternoon. Once that 68% precipitation chance hits, the humidity rises, and the "real feel" will stay well below freezing.
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Keep an eye on the wind speed; even a small gust can drop the perceived temperature by five degrees in seconds. Stay warm, keep the rain gear handy, and remember: if you don’t like the weather in Rockville right now, just wait an hour.
Next Steps for Your Day:
You should keep a close eye on the temperature around 6:00 PM tonight. Since the low is projected at 33°F, any leftover moisture from the afternoon rain could easily turn into slick spots on neighborhood side streets as the 40% snow chance kicks in. Check the wind direction again before heading out for dinner; if it stays southwest, the "feels like" temp will remain slightly higher than if it pulls from the north.