The walk across the track at Churchill Downs is unlike anything else in sports. Honestly, most 3-year-olds have no idea what’s coming until they hit that wall of sound from 150,000 people. We’re still months out from the first Saturday in May, but the picture of horses in today's Kentucky Derby hunt is already getting intense. If you aren't paying attention to the winter prep circuit, you're basically guessing when the gates open.
Right now, everyone is talking about Ted Noffey.
He’s undefeated. He’s got that gray coat that makes him easy to spot in a crowd. More importantly, he’s sitting on top of the leaderboard with 40 points after a dominant performance in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Del Mar. Todd Pletcher has him exactly where he wants him, but there’s a catch that has the "sharps" a little worried.
The horses in today's Kentucky Derby conversation you need to know
It isn't just a one-horse race. While Ted Noffey is the king of the hill, the Road to the Kentucky Derby is littered with talent that's just starting to wake up. Take a look at the current standings as of mid-January:
- Ted Noffey (40 points): The clear favorite. He’s by Into Mischief, the same sire as Authentic and Mandaloun. The pedigree is there. The speed is there.
- Golden Tempo (20 points): He just jumped up the rankings after some big moves on the Gulfstream and Fair Grounds circuit. Cherie DeVaux has this horse peaking at the right time.
- Litmus Test (19 points): Bob Baffert’s big hope. He won the Los Alamitos Futurity and looks like the kind of horse that wants every bit of the 1 1/4 mile distance.
- Spice Runner (11 points): A Gun Runner colt trained by Steve Asmussen. He won the Iroquois early on and has been working steadily under the radar.
It's a weird year. We usually have a clear rivalry by now, but Ted Noffey has been so much better than everyone else that we’re all just waiting for someone to challenge him.
👉 See also: NL Rookie of the Year 2025: Why Drake Baldwin Actually Deserved the Hardware
The concentration factor
Here’s the thing about Ted Noffey that most casual fans missed. During the Breeders' Cup, he didn't just win; he almost blew it. Coming down the stretch, he started "gawping"—that’s horse-speak for looking around at the stands. He cocked his head toward the crowd, lost his focus, and allowed Brant and Mr. A.P. to close the gap.
John Velazquez had to really get after him to keep his mind on the job.
If a horse gets distracted at Del Mar, what happens when he faces the "Derby Roar" in Louisville? That's the million-dollar question. Some horses have "equine ADHD," and Churchill Downs is the worst place on earth for a horse that can't keep its eyes on the finish line.
Watching the sleepers: Further Ado and Brant
Don't sleep on Further Ado. Brad Cox has this horse, and we know Cox is a master at timing. This colt won a maiden race by 20 lengths. 20 lengths! Then he came back and won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill. He already knows the track. He’s already won under the Twin Spires. That’s a massive advantage that Ted Noffey doesn't have yet.
✨ Don't miss: New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks: What Most People Get Wrong
Then there's Brant. He was a $3 million purchase. People expected him to be a superstar, and he’s been... good. Not great, but good. He finished third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The big worry with him is stamina. He’s fast, but can he go ten furlongs? His pedigree says maybe. His recent fades say probably not.
What’s happening right now?
We’re currently in the thick of the "prep" season. Yesterday’s Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds gave us a look at Golden Tempo and Chip Honcho. These races are where the points jump from 10 to 20, and eventually to 100 for a win.
If you're looking for a value play in the futures pools, keep an eye on Thunderously. He’s a Gun Runner son out of Princess Warrior. He’s currently sitting at long odds—sometimes as high as 125-1—but he has the "look" of a horse that will love the distance.
The injury bug has already bitten, too. Mr. A.P., who was arguably the second-best horse in the country, is currently sidelined. That opens the door for a lot of these middle-tier horses to slide into the starting gate.
🔗 Read more: New Jersey Giants Football Explained: Why Most People Still Get the "Home Team" Wrong
Actionable insights for your Derby weekend prep
If you want to stay ahead of the curve on the horses in today's Kentucky Derby trail, you have to look beyond the win-loss column.
- Watch the "gallop out": After the finish line, see which horses keep running strongly for another quarter-mile. That’s your best clue for who wants more distance.
- Focus on the trainers: Pletcher, Baffert, and Cox dominate for a reason. They have the "Derby blueprints."
- Check the pedigree: Into Mischief and Gun Runner are the gold standards right now. If a horse is by one of them, they have a genetic head start.
- Monitor the leaderboard: A horse needs roughly 40-50 points to be safe for a spot in the field. Ted Noffey is already in. Everyone else is still fighting.
Go back and watch the replay of the Kentucky Jockey Club. Pay attention to how Further Ado handled the kickback (the dirt flying in his face). A horse that can take a punch and keep running is exactly what you want for a 20-horse cavalry charge in May.
Start tracking the morning workouts for the horses based at Palm Beach Downs and Fair Grounds. The next two weeks will tell us if Ted Noffey has grown out of his "looking around" phase or if the door is wide open for a 50-1 upset.