If you’ve been waiting for a massive fire sale on new houses, today’s financial data might feel like a cold shower. Basically, the big homebuilders are doing fine. Better than fine, actually. Despite everyone complaining about 6% mortgage rates and that weird government shutdown late last year, the companies that actually build the roofs over our heads are still raking in billions.
It’s weird.
Housing affordability is at a literal all-time low, yet D.R. Horton (DHI) and Lennar (LEN) are reporting numbers that suggest they’ve found the "cheat code" for a high-rate environment. Honestly, it mostly comes down to the fact that they are the only ones with actual inventory. If you want a house today, you aren't looking at your neighbor's place—they’re locked into a 3% rate and aren't moving until 2045. You’re looking at a shiny new build.
The Big Reveal: Homebuilder Earnings News Today
The heavy hitters just dropped their latest updates, and the vibe is... cautious but profitable.
Take D.R. Horton, for instance. They just updated their outlook for fiscal 2026, and they’re targeting between 86,000 and 88,000 homes closed this year. That is a massive amount of plywood and concrete. Even though their revenue dipped slightly last quarter—down about 3.2%—they’re still looking at a projected $33.5 billion to $35 billion in total revenue for the year.
Investors were a little spooked last week when analysts at Keefe Bruyette & Woods (KBW) trimmed the price target on DHI from $175 to $168. But then, Monday happened, and the stock ticked back up. It’s like the market can’t decide if it wants to be scared of rates or impressed by the builders’ sheer grit.
Lennar is leaning into the "Volume Game"
Lennar’s recent Q4 report (for their fiscal year ending in November) was a bit of a mixed bag, but it sets the stage for what we’re seeing today. They delivered over 23,000 homes in just three months. Stuart Miller, their executive chairman, didn't mince words: he called the market "stubbornly difficult."
But here’s the kicker. Lennar is planning to deliver 85,000 homes in 2026.
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To do that, they’re basically paying for your mortgage. Well, sort of. They are leaning heavily on mortgage rate buydowns. If the market rate is 6.5%, Lennar might offer you a 4.9% or 5.5% rate for the first few years. It eats into their profit margins—which they warned would be lower in early 2026—but it keeps the assembly line moving.
Why the "Crash" hasn't happened
Most people looking for homebuilder earnings news today want to know if the bubble is finally popping.
It isn't.
We have a chronic, multi-year shortage of homes in the United States. According to recent data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), we’re still millions of units short. This supply-demand gap acts like a floor for prices. Even if demand softens because of rates, there are still more people who need a house than there are houses available.
KB Home and the California Factor
KB Home (KBH) is another one to watch right now. They just opened three new communities in Southern California—Somerset, Meridian, and Solstice. They’re betting big on the Inland Empire and Ontario areas.
It’s a gutsy move.
Their backlog has actually shrunk by about 21% lately. That’s usually a bad sign. It means they’re burning through their "reserved" orders faster than they’re getting new ones. But by opening these new spots in high-demand California corridors, they are trying to jumpstart the spring selling season before the competition gets there.
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The "Haves vs. Have-Nots" in 2026
There is a massive divide happening.
If you have equity in an existing home, you’re the "Have." You can sell, take that cash, and buy a new build with a big down payment. If you're a first-time buyer? You're the "Have-Not."
First-time buyers have dropped to about 21% of the market, which is an all-time low. Usually, that number is closer to 40%. This is exactly why companies like PulteGroup (PHM) and Champion Homes are shifting their product mix.
- Champion Homes saw their net sales jump 11.7% recently. Why? They build factory-built homes.
- Pulte is focusing more on the "active adult" (read: retirees with cash) and move-up buyers who aren't as sensitive to a 6% mortgage.
What the Experts are actually saying
Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at NAR, is actually forecasting a 14% increase in home sales for 2026. That sounds crazy, right? But he’s banking on the idea that mortgage rates will drift down toward 6.0% and stay there.
Zillow’s economists are a bit more conservative. They think home values will only grow about 1.2% this year. They also expect 2026 to be one of the slowest years for starting new projects since 2019.
Essentially, builders are finishing what they started but are hesitant to pour too many new foundations until they see what the Fed does next.
The Mortgage Rate Reality Check
Don't expect 3% rates. Ever again.
The consensus from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association is that we’re stuck in the 5.9% to 6.4% range for the foreseeable future. Builders have accepted this. They’ve retooled their entire business models to survive at 6%.
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They are building smaller houses.
They are using less "fancy" trim.
They are using tech to speed up cycle times.
Lennar actually got their cycle time down to 127 days. That’s the time from breaking ground to handing over the keys. The faster they build, the less interest they pay on their construction loans, and the more they can afford to give you a "deal" on the mortgage rate.
Actionable Insights for the Current Market
If you’re tracking this because you want to buy a home or invest in these stocks, here is the ground truth:
1. Watch the Incentives, Not the Sticker Price
The "list price" on a new home is almost fake. Today's homebuilder earnings news shows that margins are being squeezed because builders are giving away $20,000 to $40,000 in incentives (closing costs, rate buydowns, or kitchen upgrades). If you’re buying, negotiate the rate, not just the price.
2. Regionality is King
The South and West are still the powerhouses. While the Midwest is "stable," the real money and volume for builders like D.R. Horton are in the Sunbelt. If you're looking for inventory, that's where the surplus is.
3. The "Spring Jump" might be early
Because everyone is terrified of rates potentially spiking again, we’re seeing an unseasonably busy January. Mortgage applications recently surged 31% year-over-year. If you wait until April to look at a new build, the best lots will probably be gone.
4. Keep an eye on the "Millrose" effect
Lennar’s spin-off of its land-heavy assets (the Millrose deal) is a signal that big builders want to be "asset-light." They want to own the brand and the construction process, but not necessarily the dirt for ten years. This makes them more like tech companies and less like traditional real estate plays.
The housing market in 2026 isn't going to give us a "crash" headline. Instead, it's a slow, grinding professionalization of the industry where five or six giant companies own most of the market share because they’re the only ones who can afford to build at scale.
Next Steps for You
- Check local builder permits: Look at your city's planning office website to see if D.R. Horton or Lennar has filed new "Plats." That tells you where the supply is coming six months from now.
- Compare the "Effective Rate": If you're shopping, ask a builder for their "Internal Lender" worksheet. Compare that 5.5% buydown rate to a traditional bank's 6.6% rate. Over 30 years, that’s a $150,000 difference.
- Monitor the Jan 20-29 earnings window: D.R. Horton (Jan 20) and PulteGroup (Jan 29) will give the definitive word on how the first two weeks of the year actually performed.