If you’ve walked through a big-box hardware store lately, you’ve probably noticed something weird. The aisles are a little more crowded, but people aren’t just buying light bulbs and mulch. They’re looking at the big stuff again. Honestly, the last two years were pretty brutal for the industry. Mortgage rates stayed high, people felt "locked in" to their current homes, and everyone basically sat on their wallets when it came to major renovations.
But the latest home improvement retail news suggests the vibe is shifting. We’re seeing what economists are calling a "market thaw."
It’s not a flood of spending yet, but it's a start. Home Depot just dropped their 2026 forecast, and they’re betting on a 2.5% to 4.5% jump in total sales. That might sound like a small number, but in a world where the total home improvement market is worth over $1.1 trillion, a few percentage points represent billions of dollars in kitchens, decks, and smart home upgrades.
The Big Pivot to Pros
The biggest story right now isn't about you or me buying a new drill. It’s about the "Pro."
Home Depot and Lowe’s have spent the last year in an absolute arms race to win over contractors. Why? Because while a DIYer might spend $500 on a weekend project, a professional contractor spends tens of thousands a year.
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Last year, Home Depot closed an $18.3 billion deal for SRS Distribution. They just followed that up by completing the acquisition of GMS Inc. for $5.5 billion this month. They are basically building an ecosystem where a contractor doesn't just buy wood; they get specialized roofing, pool supplies, and gypsum delivered straight to the job site.
Lowe’s isn’t sitting back, either. CEO Marvin Ellison has been vocal about their "Total Home Strategy," and their acquisition of Foundation Building Materials (FBM) and Artisan Design Group (ADG) shows they’re chasing the same high-value B2B customers.
Agentic AI is Actually Inside the Stores Now
We’ve all heard the buzzwords, but the home improvement retail news coming out of the 2026 NRF "Big Show" in New York this week actually showed how this tech is hitting the floor. Home Depot and Google Cloud just expanded their partnership to launch "Agentic AI."
What does that actually mean for someone trying to fix a leaky sink?
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- Magic Apron upgrades: It’s a conversational assistant that does wayfinding. You can literally ask it where the specific O-rings are, and it’ll guide you to the exact aisle and shelf.
- Pro Material Lists: This is in full national rollout now. It uses AI to look at a project plan and automatically build a shopping list of every screw, bracket, and board needed so nothing gets forgotten.
- Predictive Delivery: They’re using Gemini models to predict "last-mile" delivery issues—like whether a specific truck can actually fit down a narrow driveway—before the driver even leaves the warehouse.
It’s kind of wild to think that your local hardware store is now a tech company, but with labor shortages still hitting the trades, these tools are becoming necessary just to keep projects moving.
What People are Actually Building in 2026
The trends for this year are surprisingly practical. According to the Home Improvement Research Institute (HIRI), we’re moving away from the "all-white kitchen" era. People are tired of sterile looks.
Instead, the money is going toward "wellness" and "longevity." Think spa-style bathrooms with textured surfaces and smart mirrors. There’s also a massive surge in "ventless" appliances.
Wait, why ventless?
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Well, a lot of people are staying in older homes or apartments because they can’t afford to move. Adding a traditional dryer vent to a 1920s brick building is a nightmare. Ventless heat-pump dryers can be tucked into a closet or under a counter without a hole in the wall. It’s a high-ROI upgrade for renters and landlords alike.
The Pricing Reality Check
Residential construction material prices are still on an upward trend. It’s the elephant in the room. Even though inflation has cooled in some sectors, the stuff you need to build a house—lumber, concrete, copper—is still expensive.
HIRI predicts a 3.8% increase in the overall home improvement market this year, but a lot of that is driven by "top-income" households. These are the folks who have been sitting on high home equity and finally decided they can't wait for mortgage rates to hit 3% again. They’re moving forward with "lifestyle-driven" remodels: outdoor entertainment areas, home gyms, and supplemental "prep kitchens."
Key Insights for 2026 Projects
If you're planning a project or watching the stocks, here is the ground-level reality:
- Don't wait for a "crash": Total homeowner remodeling spending is expected to hit a record $524 billion this year. Prices aren't dropping; they're just rising more slowly.
- Focus on Energy: Federal and state incentives for energy-efficient windows, insulation, and solar-ready roofs are at a peak. These projects often pay for themselves faster than a cosmetic kitchen refresh.
- The Hybrid DIY Move: More people are doing "hybrid" projects—buying the materials themselves to save on the retail markup but hiring pros for the complex electrical or HVAC work.
- Watch the HELOCs: Lowe’s is betting big on Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) as the primary way people will fund $50,000+ renovations this year.
The industry is definitely shaking off the dust. Whether it’s through AI-powered shopping or a massive shift toward professional contractor services, the home improvement retail news cycle is finally looking optimistic again.
Next Steps for Your 2026 Home Strategy:
- Audit your energy use: Check for available tax rebates on heat-pump water heaters or ventless dryers before starting a laundry room or basement renovation.
- Use the tools: If you're a DIYer, download the latest versions of the retail apps. The "agentic" search features are actually good now and can save you twenty minutes of wandering around looking for a specific galvanized bolt.
- Lock in labor early: Even with the "thaw," the labor shortage is real. If you're planning a summer project, you should be getting quotes from pros now, as their backlogs are already beginning to fill up for the Q2 surge.