Everyone is talking about it. The numbers are finally in, or at least, the big picture is coming into focus. You might've heard that the 2025 holiday season was the first time we crossed the $1 trillion mark in retail sales. That is a massive number. But honestly? It doesn't feel like a "boom" to most people. If you're looking for the latest holiday shopping 2025 forecast news today, you’re likely seeing a weird mix of record-breaking headlines and stories about people being "timid" with their wallets.
It's a bizarre contradiction.
Matthew Shay, the CEO of the National Retail Federation (NRF), recently pointed out that sales grew about 4.1% this season. That hits right in the middle of their original forecast. On paper, it’s a win. But look closer. S&P Global and other analysts have been shouting from the rooftops that this growth isn't coming from people buying more stuff. It's coming from things costing more. Basically, inflation and those looming tariff concerns did a number on our bank accounts.
The Reality Behind the Holiday Shopping 2025 Forecast News Today
What most people get wrong about these forecasts is thinking that "more spending" equals "happier shoppers." Not this year. According to PwC, the average person actually planned to spend about 5% less than they did in 2024. If you felt like you were pinching pennies while everyone else was celebrating a "$1 trillion season," you weren't alone.
Gen Z, specifically, took a huge hit. Forecasts showed them cutting back by as much as 23%. That’s a massive shift. They aren't just being stingy; they’re dealing with a tough job market and higher rent. Meanwhile, the Baby Boomers actually stepped up, with many increasing their spending by 5%. It’s a complete generational divide.
✨ Don't miss: Syrian Dinar to Dollar: Why Everyone Gets the Name (and the Rate) Wrong
Where did the money actually go?
It wasn't just on toys and sweaters. People are pivoting.
- Experiences over "Things": Spending on travel and entertainment actually stayed flat or ticked up slightly.
- The "Sweaty" Trend: Mastercard noted a huge spike in "fitness tech"—think AI workout mirrors and high-end trackers.
- Gift Cards: These were the ultimate "safe bet." When prices are unpredictable, people just hand over a card and let the recipient worry about the inflation.
Why E-commerce Still Wins (But Stores Aren't Dead)
The holiday shopping 2025 forecast news today shows a fascinating tug-of-war between your laptop and the local mall. Online sales jumped over 7%, which is huge. We’re seeing "channel parity" for the first time. That basically means about half of us prefer the couch, and the other half still wants to smell the cinnamon candles at the department store.
One weird detail: Cyber Monday actually landed in December this year because Thanksgiving was so late. That messed with the November data and made December look like a monster month for retailers.
AI is officially the new personal shopper
If you noticed your search results or ads felt eerily accurate this year, thank (or blame) the robots. Salesforce predicted that AI-driven recommendations would influence about $263 billion in orders. It’s not just "customers also bought" anymore. It’s hyper-personalized discovery.
🔗 Read more: New Zealand currency to AUD: Why the exchange rate is shifting in 2026
Retailers like Amazon and Walmart used this to keep us clicking even when we said we were "done shopping." Amazon’s October Prime event was a bit of a dud compared to July, mostly because people were "scared" of inflation. But by December? The "retail therapy" kicked in. People wanted to feel normal again, even if it meant a little extra credit card debt.
The "Timid" Consumer and the Tariff Ghost
McKinsey used a word I keep thinking about: Timid. Shoppers aren't necessarily broke, but they are confused. With the government shutdown earlier in the season and the constant talk of new tariffs, nobody knew if prices would double by January. This led to "front-loading." A lot of people did their heavy lifting in October and early November just to beat the potential price hikes.
If you waited until the last minute, you probably noticed the "value hunt" was more intense. Search terms for "discount code" and "coupon" shot up by double digits. Retailers had to get aggressive. If they didn't offer a massive Black Friday deal, people just... didn't buy.
Practical Steps for the Post-Holiday Slump
So, what do you do with this info? The forecast news isn't just for Wall Street; it affects your wallet for the rest of 2026.
💡 You might also like: How Much Do Chick fil A Operators Make: What Most People Get Wrong
1. Watch the Gift Card Secondary Market
Since a record number of gift cards were bought (Mastercard data says nearly a third of all toy store spending happens via gift card redemptions in Jan/Feb), watch for "resale" sites. People will be offloading cards they don't want for cash, which means you can snag deals.
2. Expect "Value" Brands to Stay Aggressive
Since most of the growth came from middle- and high-income earners, stores like Walmart and Target are going to be fighting for the "budget" shopper. Don't expect the sales to stop just because it's January.
3. Check Your Subscriptions
A lot of that "experience" spending was tied to apps and digital fitness. If you bought a tech-powered health gift during the holiday rush, make sure you aren't paying for a "pro" subscription you don't need by March.
The 2025 season proved that the American shopper is resilient, but they’re definitely tired of the price hikes. We've hit the trillion-dollar mark, but the real story is how much harder we had to work to get there.
Next steps for you:
Audit your credit card statements from December to see if you fell into the "AI-driven discovery" trap. If you have unspent gift cards, use them before the end of Q1 2026, as retailers are expected to adjust prices again as new trade policies go into effect.