So you're planning a trip to the islands, or maybe you're already here, squinting at your phone and wondering if that "partly cloudy" icon means your luau is actually gonna be a washout. Honestly, checking the hawaii weather 10 day forecast is kinda like trying to predict which lane at the grocery store will move fastest—there’s a lot of science involved, but sometimes the universe just does its own thing.
Right now, as of January 17, 2026, we’re sitting in the heart of what locals call the "wet season." But don’t let that name scare you off. Usually, it just means the islands are incredibly green and the waterfalls are actually flowing instead of just dripping.
The immediate hawaii weather 10 day forecast: A game of two halves
If you’re looking at the week ahead, it’s basically a tale of a peaceful start followed by a bit of a moody finish. Today, Saturday, we’ve got some gorgeous sunny conditions across the state. In Honolulu, we’re looking at a high of 61°F (yeah, a bit chilly for us!) with just a tiny 5% chance of rain. It’s the kind of day where you want a light sweater if you’re sitting in the shade, but the sun still feels amazing on your skin.
By tomorrow, Sunday, January 18, things start to shift. We're looking at more clouds moving in and the chance of rain jumping up to about 25%. It’s not a deluge, but you’ll probably see some of those "passing showers" the islands are famous for.
💡 You might also like: Comfort Inn West Valley: Why This Spot Actually Makes Sense for Salt Lake Visitors
Breaking down the daily vibe
- Monday & Tuesday (Jan 19-20): Expect "partly sunny" vibes. These are your best days for outdoor adventure. Highs will hover around 64°F. Perfect hiking weather.
- Wednesday (Jan 21): The clouds really start to settle in. It’s gonna feel a bit grey, and the humidity will likely tick up as we hit 64%.
- The Big Shift (Jan 22-24): This is where it gets interesting. A cold front is expected to roll through mid-week. Thursday has a 65% chance of rain, and by Saturday, January 24, we’re looking at a 75% chance of heavy rain. If you’ve got boat tours booked for next Saturday, you might want to have a Plan B ready.
Why January 2026 feels a little different
You might have heard the meteorologists chatting about La Niña. Basically, we’re currently in a weak La Niña pattern. Traditionally, that means Hawaii gets more rain than usual during the winter. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has been tracking this, and while they expect a transition to "neutral" conditions by March, for now, the dice are loaded in favor of a wetter-than-average season.
What’s wild is the temperature. Even though we’re in the tropics, the current 10-day stretch is showing some surprisingly "cool" lows. We're talking 47°F to 55°F at night. If you’re staying in a place with just screens and no real insulation, you’re gonna want a real blanket, not just a sarong.
Island-by-island: It’s never the same everywhere
One mistake people make is looking at the "Hawaii" forecast and assuming it applies to the whole state. It doesn't.
Oahu and Maui
Honolulu and Central Maui usually stay a bit drier because of the rain shadow effect. If it’s pouring in Kaneohe or Hana, there’s a solid chance it’s bone-dry and sunny in Ko Olina or Wailea. For this upcoming week, Oahu will likely see the front hit late Wednesday night.
Kauai
The "Garden Isle" usually gets the first taste of any incoming front. If you're on the North Shore of Kauai, expect those light rain percentages to feel a bit more... present.
The Big Island (Hawaii Island)
This is where the weather gets truly eccentric. While the Hilo side is its usual lush, rainy self, the Kona side is often protected. However, keep an eye on those wind advisories. Earlier this week, the National Weather Service had a Wind Advisory for the summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa. If you're planning on driving up for the sunset, check the NWS updates first—it can get brutal up there.
👉 See also: Finding Your Way: A Map of Japan Tokyo and Why GPS Still Fails You
The "Secret" to reading the forecast
Don't panic when you see the rain icon for 10 days straight. In Hawaii, that often means it will rain for 15 minutes at 4:00 AM and then be gorgeous for the rest of the day. The "chance of rain" is usually more about where it will rain, not how long.
Actionable Next Steps for your trip:
- Pack a lightweight, breathable raincoat. Not a heavy yellow slicker—you'll melt. Something thin that cuts the wind and sheds a quick shower.
- Download a local radar app. Don’t just look at the icon; look at the radar. You can literally watch the rain clouds move and decide to stay on the beach for another 20 minutes because the cell is gonna miss you.
- Book indoor activities for the "Heavy Rain" days. If the hawaii weather 10 day forecast is showing a 75% chance for next Saturday, maybe make that your museum day at Bishop Museum or your shopping day at Ala Moana.
- Watch the surf warnings. This time of year, we get massive swells. If the NWS issues a High Surf Warning (like they did for the north and west facing shores this past week), please, stay out of the water in those areas. The "shorebreak" can be deadly even if you're a strong swimmer.
Basically, the weather here is a living thing. It changes fast, it’s rarely as bad as the icons look, and even on a "rainy" day, you’re still in Hawaii. Enjoy the rainbows—they only happen because of the rain.