You might've seen the headlines or the glowing red livestreams. Kilauea is doing that thing again. Since December 2024, the Big Island’s most famous resident has been acting like a giant, pressurized tea kettle. It’s episodic. It’s dramatic. Honestly, it’s a bit of a tease if you’re a tourist trying to time your visit.
Right now, as of mid-January 2026, the eruption at the Halemaʻumaʻu summit is technically "paused." But "paused" is a loaded word when you’re talking about a volcano that just finished its 40th fountaining episode since this whole cycle started.
The ground is literally swelling. Scientists at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) are watching their tiltmeters—essentially high-tech levels that measure the mountain's "inflation"—and the needles are moving. Since Episode 40 ended on January 12, the summit has been reinflating at a rate that suggests more lava is coming.
The Episode 41 Countdown
We're currently in the "wait and see" phase. Most experts, including the folks at the USGS, are eyeing a window between January 20 and January 25, 2026, for the next big show.
Why the specific dates?
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Magma. It’s all about the plumbing. When the lava stops spraying, the pipes underground don't just empty out. They refill. The HVO reported that the UWD tiltmeter recorded a jump of 10 microradians of inflationary tilt recently. That’s a fancy way of saying the volcano is getting "fat" with new magma.
If you were standing at the Uēkahuna Overlook last week, you would've seen fountains hitting 800 feet. Some episodes have seen lava screaming 1,500 feet into the air. That’s higher than the Empire State Building.
What the earthquake swarms actually mean
The shaking is what’s getting people nervous. On January 14 and again on the morning of January 17, seismic swarms rattled the southeast part of Halemaʻumaʻu. We’re talking dozens of small quakes, mostly under magnitude 2.0.
It’s easy to think "The Big One" is coming, but this is usually just "magmatic pressure" trying to find a way out. Imagine trying to force water through a rusted pipe; the pipe is going to groan and crack. That’s what these quakes are—the rock cracking to make room for the molten heat.
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- Earthquake Depth: 0.5 to 2 miles deep.
- Location: Mostly clustered beneath the south caldera and the east side of the crater.
- The Risk: If the rocks weaken too much, the magma could shift. Instead of erupting at the summit, it could head into the rift zones. So far, the East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone are quiet.
Living with the "Vog" and Pele's Hair
Lava is the star, but the air is the real problem for locals. Kilauea is currently pumping out about 1,550 tonnes of sulfur dioxide ($SO_2$) per day, even while paused. When it’s actually erupting? That number can skyrocket to 100,000 tonnes.
This creates "vog"—volcanic smog. It’s a thick, grey haze that sits over the Kona side of the island and makes your throat feel like you’ve been eating sandpaper.
Then there’s "Pele's Hair."
It sounds poetic. It isn't. It’s actually volcanic glass—thin, sharp strands created when gas bubbles in the lava burst and get stretched by the wind. If you see what looks like golden hay on the ground near the park, don't touch it. It’s basically fiberglass. It'll get in your skin, your eyes, and if you’re unlucky, your lungs.
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What should you do if you're visiting?
First off, Hawaii Volcanoes National Park is open. Most of the action is happening inside the closed-off areas of the caldera, so you aren't in danger of being chased by a lava flow like a scene from a bad 90s movie.
- Check the National Park Service (NPS) alerts. They close trails fast when the gas levels get too high.
- Bring a mask. Not for COVID, but for the $SO_2$. If you have asthma, the vog is no joke.
- Go at night. If the volcano is in a "paused" state, you might still see a faint glow from the vents. If it’s fountaining, the night view is life-changing.
- Respect the road closures. People keep trying to sneak into closed areas for TikToks. The crater walls are unstable. Rockfalls are frequent. Don't be that person.
The Big Picture: Mauna Loa and Beyond
Mauna Loa—the massive neighbor—is currently at a "Normal" alert level. It’s been quiet since its 2022 eruption. Scientists saw a bit of a lull in its seismic activity lately, with only about 94 earthquakes detected in the last month compared to 147 the month before. It’s recovering. It’s breathing. But it’s not the one making the news this week.
Kilauea is the one to watch. It’s in a cycle of "recharge and discharge." Think of it as a battery that fills up for 10 days and then dumps all its energy in a spectacular 12-hour firework show.
Actionable Steps for Staying Informed
If you want to track the next eruption in real-time without relying on clickbait, here is what you actually need to do:
- Bookmark the HVO Daily Update page. They post every morning around 9:00 AM HST. It's the only source that matters.
- Watch the V3 webcam. This camera points directly at the vents in Halemaʻumaʻu. If you see the "glow" turn into "splashing," Episode 41 has likely started.
- Monitor the Tiltmeters. Look for the "UWD" station on the USGS monitoring site. When that line starts trending sharply downward, it usually means the magma has breached the surface and the eruption is live.
The next few days are critical. If the current inflation trend continues, we are looking at a very bright, very red week on the Big Island. Be ready to pivot your plans if the gas levels shift, and always keep a safe distance from the caldera rim.
Next Steps for You: Check the current SO2 levels on the IVHHN (International Volcanic Health Hazard Network) dashboard before heading to the park, especially if you have respiratory sensitivities. If you are planning a trip for the upcoming window of January 20-25, ensure your accommodation is refundable or flexible, as vog levels can lead to localized park closures with very little notice.