If you’ve been doom-scrolling through financial news lately, you’re probably seeing a lot of scary numbers. Headlines are screaming about 10%, 60%, or even 100% price hikes on everything from your morning coffee to the laptop you’re using to read this. The big question everyone is asking is: have tariffs started yet?
The short answer? Yes. But also, no. It depends entirely on which "tariffs" you’re talking about and which country is shipping the goods.
We aren't just talking about a single switch that gets flipped. Trade policy is more like a giant, messy game of Tetris where the pieces are constantly falling and changing shape. If you’re waiting for a single "Tariff Day" where prices suddenly jump at every Walmart and Amazon warehouse, you’re looking at it the wrong way. Many duties from the 2018-2019 era are still very much active. Meanwhile, the newer, more aggressive proposals you’ve heard about on the campaign trail or in recent legislative sessions are, in many cases, still stuck in the "threat" or "phasing-in" stage.
The Reality of Current Trade Enforcement
To understand where we are, we have to look back. A lot of people forgot that the Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods—the ones that started years ago—never actually went away. They’ve been sitting there, baked into the price of goods for years.
Actually, they've expanded.
In 2024 and leading into 2025, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) finalized increases on very specific categories. We're talking about semiconductors, electric vehicles (EVs), and medical supplies like face masks and syringes. If you’re in the market for a Chinese-made EV, the tariffs haven't just "started"—they’ve effectively slammed the door shut with 100% duties.
But for the average person buying a toaster or a pair of sneakers, the "new" universal tariffs everyone is panicked about are still largely theoretical. They are the "what-ifs" of current economic policy.
Why the Confusion Persists
Trade policy is dense. It’s boring. Most people only care when the price of a gallon of milk or a new truck goes up. Because politicians use the word "tariff" as both a campaign promise and a threat, the timeline gets incredibly blurry.
You’ll hear a candidate or a regulator say, "We are going to tax these imports." The internet hears: "Prices go up tomorrow." In reality, there is a legal process involving the International Trade Commission (ITC) and public comment periods that can take months.
Have Tariffs Started Yet for Everyday Goods?
Right now, if you go to the store, the price increases you're seeing are mostly a hangover from inflation and supply chain shifts, not necessarily brand-new 2026 tariff implementations.
However, big-box retailers like Target and AutoZone have already started warning investors. They aren't waiting for the law to change to start adjusting their strategies. When an executive says they are "front-loading" inventory, they mean they are buying as much as possible right now to avoid the taxes they expect to hit later this year.
This creates a weird "phantom" price hike. Even if the tariffs haven't legally started yet for a specific product, the anticipation of them can drive prices up as companies try to build a cash cushion.
The China Factor
China remains the primary target. Under Section 301, billions of dollars worth of goods are already taxed at rates ranging from 7.5% to 25%.
Recent moves have targeted:
- Solar Cells: Rates jumped to 50% recently.
- Steel and Aluminum: These have seen steady increases to protect domestic producers.
- Critical Minerals: This is the new frontier. If it’s used in a battery, the government wants it taxed if it comes from a "non-friendly" source.
If you work in construction or tech manufacturing, the answer to "have tariffs started yet" is a resounding yes. You've been paying them for months, if not years. But if you’re a consumer looking at furniture or apparel, the "broad" tariffs that would affect every single item regardless of origin are still in the proposal phase.
What’s Coming Down the Pipeline?
The conversation has shifted toward "Universal Baseline Tariffs." This is the idea that everything coming into the country should be taxed at 10% or 20%, no matter where it’s from.
This hasn't happened yet.
It would be a seismic shift in how the global economy works. Imagine a 10% tax on French wine, Italian leather, and Japanese electronics all at once. Currently, our trade deals—like the USMCA with Mexico and Canada—prevent a lot of this. To implement a universal tariff, the government would likely have to navigate (or ignore) various World Trade Organization (WTO) rules and existing treaties.
The Logistics of "Starting"
Tariffs don't just happen. The Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency has to update its software. Importers have to change their "Harmonized Tariff Schedule" (HTS) codes. It’s a bureaucratic nightmare.
When people ask "have tariffs started yet," they are usually looking for a date. The best way to track this isn't by watching the news, but by watching the "Federal Register." That’s the official diary of the U.S. government. When a tariff is actually starting, it gets published there with a specific effective date.
How Businesses are Reacting Right Now
Small business owners are in a tough spot. If you’re a boutique owner in Ohio and you source your inventory from overseas, you’re likely seeing "tariff surcharges" on your invoices already.
Is that legal? Sorta.
Wholesalers are basically hedging their bets. They know that if a 20% tariff hits while their ship is in the middle of the Pacific, they’re the ones who have to pay the bill when it hits the port. To protect themselves, they’re raising prices ahead of time. So, for your bottom line, the effect has started, even if the government hasn't collected a dime yet.
Diversification is the New Trend
Companies aren't just sitting around waiting. They are moving production to Vietnam, India, and Mexico. This is called "near-shoring" or "friend-shoring."
The logic is simple: if the tariff only applies to China, move the factory to Thailand. But now, policymakers are catching on. There’s talk of "rules of origin" being tightened. This means even if a product is finished in Vietnam, if 60% of the parts are Chinese, it might still get hit with that heavy tax.
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The Economic Debate: Who Actually Pays?
There’s a massive misconception that the exporting country pays the tariff. They don't.
When the U.S. puts a tariff on a German car, the German government doesn't send a check to Washington. The American company importing the car pays the tax to U.S. Customs. To stay profitable, that company then raises the price for you, the buyer.
Basically, a tariff is a sales tax that only applies to foreign goods.
Some economists, like those at the Tax Foundation, argue this kills growth and hurts the poor. Others, often aligned with "America First" manufacturing groups, argue that this pain is necessary to force companies to build factories back in the U.S.
Actionable Steps for Navigating the "Tariff Era"
Since the situation is so fluid, you can't just wait for a news alert. You have to be proactive. Whether you're running a business or just trying to manage a household budget, here is how you handle the "started yet" uncertainty.
1. Audit Your Supply Chain (or your Shopping List)
Look at the labels. If you are heavily reliant on goods from China, you are in the high-risk zone. For consumers, this might mean buying that "big-ticket" appliance now rather than waiting until the end of the year. For businesses, it means finding a secondary supplier in a country that has a free-trade agreement with the U.S.
2. Watch the HTS Codes
If you import, you need to know your Harmonized Tariff Schedule codes. The government doesn't tax "electronics"; they tax specific codes like 8471.30.01. If your specific code is on a "List 4" or "Section 232" watch list, you need to prepare for a sudden 10% to 25% jump in costs.
3. Lock in Contracts
If you’re a business, try to sign long-term pricing agreements with your suppliers. Some larger vendors will "guarantee" a price for 12 months, absorbing the tariff risk themselves just to keep your business. It's a buyer's market for stability right now.
4. Don't Panic Buy, but Plan Ahead
We saw what happened with toilet paper in 2020. Panic buying causes more inflation than the tariffs themselves. However, if you know you need new tires or a new roof—items heavily dependent on imported rubber and steel—doing those projects sooner rather than later is a statistically sound move.
5. Follow the USTR Updates
The Office of the United States Trade Representative is the source of truth. They post "Exclusion" lists. Sometimes, a business can lobby the government to say, "Hey, I can't get this specific part anywhere but China, please don't tax me." If you’re a specialized manufacturer, getting on that exclusion list can save your company.
The "tariff war" isn't a single event. It’s a permanent change in how we trade. While the most extreme universal tariffs haven't fully started for every sector, the era of "cheap, tax-free globalism" is effectively over. You have to price that into your life today.
Immediate Next Steps:
Check the country of origin on your top five most expensive business inputs or household recurring purchases. If they are sourced from regions currently under Section 301 scrutiny, begin calculating a 15% price "buffer" into your Q3 and Q4 budget to account for both potential duties and the inevitable "anticipatory" price hikes from wholesalers.