If you’ve checked your portfolio lately and seen a sea of red where the bullseye used to be, you’re definitely not alone. It’s been a rough ride. Target (TGT) has spent much of the last year feeling like the kid picked last for dodgeball while the rest of the S&P 500 went on a tear.
Honestly, it’s a weird spot for a "Dividend King" to be in.
By the end of 2025, Target stock was down roughly 30% for the year. That's a staggering number when you consider that Walmart was hitting all-time highs and Amazon was flexing its AI muscles. The stock even flirted with a four-year low, dipping down toward the $80 range at its worst points. If you're wondering why has target stock gone down while everyone else seemed to be winning, the answer isn't just one thing. It's a messy cocktail of self-inflicted wounds, a "middle-class" identity crisis, and a massive leadership shakeup that’s currently in progress.
The Core Reasons Target Stock Took a Hit
Target isn't Walmart. That’s usually their superpower, but lately, it’s been their Achilles' heel.
Walmart is a grocery store that happens to sell clothes; Target is a style destination that happens to sell milk. When inflation bites hard, people buy milk and bread, but they skip the $20 decorative throw pillow and the cute Hearth & Hand ceramic pitcher. This "discretionary spending" slump is a huge reason the stock cratered. In their Q3 2025 report, Target’s comparable sales—a key metric for retail health—dropped 2.7%.
Most of that drop came from people simply not walking through the doors. Foot traffic fell by 2.2%.
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The DEI Backlash and the "Quiet" Boycotts
We have to talk about the elephant in the room. Target found itself in the middle of a massive cultural tug-of-war. After facing intense pressure over its Pride collections and subsequent DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) rollbacks, the brand managed to alienate groups on both sides of the aisle.
One week you’ve got boycotts from one side; the next week, a 40-day Lenten boycott spearheaded by religious leaders starts picking up steam. It’s been exhausting to watch. These aren't just "Twitter dramas" either—they show up in the data. Placer.ai reported a 10th consecutive week of foot traffic declines following these controversies in early 2025. When people stop making their weekly "Target Run," the stock price follows them right out the exit.
The Problem of "Shrink" and Theft
You’ve seen the videos. Items locked behind glass cases. Aisles that feel more like a high-security warehouse than a boutique.
"Shrink"—retail speak for theft, damage, and lost inventory—has been a massive drain. Target has lost hundreds of millions of dollars to this over the last couple of years. While they've started to see some "efficiency gains" in their supply chain recently, the cost of securing stores and the annoyance it causes shoppers hasn't helped the bottom line.
A Changing of the Guard: The CEO Shuffle
For years, Brian Cornell was the face of Target’s success. He steered them through the pandemic when everyone was buying home office chairs and puzzles. But the post-pandemic world has been less kind.
The big news hitting the wires right now is the leadership transition. Cornell is moving to Executive Chairman, and Michael Fiddelke is taking over the CEO seat in February 2026. Fiddelke isn't a new face—he’s been the COO and CFO—but he’s already making waves.
He recently announced a plan to cut 1,800 corporate jobs.
It’s a classic "tighten the belt" move. The goal is to strip away the layers of management that Fiddelke says have slowed down decision-making. Investors usually like cost-cutting, but the market is still in a "wait and see" mode. Is Target just leaning on old playbooks, or can they actually innovate their way back to growth?
Is the Tide Finally Turning in 2026?
Despite all the gloom, the first few weeks of 2026 have shown a glimmer of hope.
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As of mid-January 2026, the stock has clawed its way back up toward the $105–$108 range. It’s a modest recovery, sure, but it’s something.
- The Valuation Gap: Target is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of about 12.7. Compare that to the industry average which is significantly higher, and you start to see why value investors like those at Zacks are starting to pay attention again.
- The Wellness Pivot: Just last week, Target announced a 30% expansion of its wellness assortment. We’re talking thousands of new items, most under $10. They are desperately trying to recapture that "cheap chic" magic that made them famous.
- The Dividend Yield: Because the stock price dropped so much, the dividend yield pushed toward 4.5%. For people who just want a steady check, Target is suddenly looking like a bargain compared to "expensive" stocks like Costco.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Recovery
A lot of folks think Target just needs to "lower prices" to beat Walmart. That's a trap. Target can't win a price war with the world's largest retailer. Their path back to $200 a share isn't about being the cheapest; it's about being the most relevant.
They need their "Billion Dollar Brands" like Cat & Jack and Good & Gather to do the heavy lifting. These private labels have higher margins than name brands. If Fiddelke can get people excited about a $15 designer collaboration again, the "Target Run" comes back.
Actionable Insights for Investors and Shoppers
If you are holding the stock or thinking about jumping in, here is the reality of the situation:
- Watch the March 3rd Earnings: This will be the first big test of the "New Target" under Fiddelke’s incoming leadership. If they miss on revenue again, expect another dip.
- Monitor the "Store-as-Hub" Strategy: Target is doubling down on using its stores to fulfill online orders. If this works, it lowers their shipping costs and helps them compete with Amazon's speed.
- The "V-Shaped" Recovery Potential: Technical analysts are pointing to a "double bottom" near the $95 level. If the stock stays above $105, it might finally break the multi-year downward trend that has frustrated shareholders since 2022.
Target is in a transitional "purgatory" right now. It isn't a dying company—far from it—but it is a company that has to rediscover who it serves. If they can move past the culture wars and get back to providing that specific "middle-class luxury" experience, the stock's current "bargain" status might look very different a year from now.
Keep a close eye on their "Fun 101" hardlines evolution. If they can make the toy and home aisles feel like a destination again, they might just reclaim their crown. For now, the stock remains a high-yield play with a lot of "if" attached to its future.