The war is basically at a breaking point, but not in the way you might think from the headlines. We’re deep into 2026 now. On January 14, 2026, the news broke that the ceasefire in Gaza is moving into "Phase II." US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff made it official, but the air in Gaza and Tel Aviv still feels thick with the same old tension.
Hamas is publicly saying they want the fighting to stop for good. They’ve been signaling a willingness to dissolve their own government in Gaza to make way for a "technocratic committee"—essentially a group of 15 Palestinian experts who aren't career politicians. It sounds like a massive concession. Honestly, it’s the kind of move that would have been unthinkable two years ago.
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But here is the catch.
The Disarmament Deadlock
While Hamas calls for end of war, the "how" is where everything falls apart. President Donald Trump has been incredibly blunt about this on Truth Social, telling Hamas they can do this "the easy way or the hard way." The "easy way" involves full demilitarization. We're talking about handing over every last AK-47, dismantling the tunnels, and walking away from the "resistance" brand entirely.
Hamas isn't doing that. Not yet.
They've shown some wiggle room on heavy weaponry—think rockets and long-range stuff—but they are digging in their heels on small arms. Their logic? They claim they need them to defend against "settler violence" and what they call an "unjust war." To Israel, that’s a non-starter. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already labeled the latest announcement of Phase II as just a "declarative move." To him, it's theater until the guns are gone.
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The Shadow of the Final Hostage
It’s hard to overstate how much the fate of one person is stalling the peace. His name is Ran Gvili. He’s an Israeli police officer, and he’s the last remaining person from the October 7 attacks still held in Gaza—or at least, his remains are.
Hamas says they can't find him. They blame the massive destruction of the landscape for the delay. The Gvili family is, understandably, heartbroken and furious. They've been begging the government not to move to Phase II until Ran comes home. This isn't just a political talking point; it's a raw, bleeding wound that makes any talk of a "peace board" feel hollow to the Israeli public.
Who Actually Runs Gaza Now?
If the war ends, who picks up the trash? Who fixes the power lines?
The current plan involves a 15-member committee led by Ali Shaath, a former deputy planning minister. He’s an engineer by trade. He’s already talking about pushing war debris into the Mediterranean and rebuilding the whole place in three years. It’s an ambitious, maybe even crazy, goal.
The UN says the bill for reconstruction is going to top $50 billion. So far, the "Board of Peace"—that’s the international body Trump set up to oversee this—has a lot of prestige but not a lot of deposited checks.
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The reality on the ground is a mess:
- The Yellow Line: There's an informal boundary now. Israel controls about half the enclave, and they’ve been leveling buildings in a "demilitarization" effort even during the truce.
- The Food Situation: For the first time since 2023, there’s enough food stock to meet basic needs, but the "slow death" of the siege still lingers because of internal aid restrictions.
- The Casualties: Even with the ceasefire, the death toll keeps ticking up. Over 450 Palestinians have been killed since this "truce" started in October 2025. It’s a peace that looks a lot like war.
Why the "End" Isn't the End
When Hamas calls for end of war, they are also calling for a role in whatever comes next. They've rejected any international "trusteeship." They want elections. They want to be part of the PLO. Essentially, they want to survive politically even if they have to surrender some of their military might.
The US is even floating a "buy-back" program for guns. Imagine a world where a Hamas fighter trades his rifle for cash. It sounds like something out of a textbook on post-conflict resolution, but in the ruins of Gaza, it feels almost surreal.
Actionable Steps for Staying Informed
If you're trying to cut through the noise of the 2026 headlines, here’s how to actually track if this war is ending:
- Watch the "Board of Peace" Appointments: If real money starts flowing from Gulf allies into this board, the transition to technocratic rule is likely real. If it stays a "prestigious" list of names with no budget, the war hasn't ended; it’s just paused.
- Monitor the Rafah Crossing: The reopening of this crossing for commercial goods—not just aid—is the true litmus test for whether Israel believes Hamas is sufficiently weakened.
- Track the "Yellow Line": If the IDF starts pulling back from this informal boundary, it's a sign that the "Phase II" negotiations are actually working. If they advance it, expect the ceasefire to collapse by spring.
The situation is kind of a paradox. You have a group that built its identity on fighting now asking for the fighting to stop, and a government that promised "total victory" realizing that victory might just look like a very long, very expensive stalemate.
The "Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict" is on the table. Whether anyone actually signs the last page is still a coin toss. Hamas wants the war over because they are "steadfast but exhausted." Israel wants it over because the international pressure is boiling over. But as long as the guns are still in the tunnels, the "end" is just another chapter.