The H-1B lottery used to be a pure game of luck. You’d throw your name in the hat, cross your fingers, and hope the computer picked you. It didn't matter if you were a genius AI researcher or a junior coder; your odds were exactly the same.
That just changed.
On December 29, 2025, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) dropped a massive final rule that officially kills the "random" part of the lottery for the upcoming March 2026 season (Fiscal Year 2027). Instead of a blind draw, we’re moving to H-1B wage based selection. Basically, the more you get paid relative to your peers in your specific city, the more "tickets" you get in the lottery.
Honestly, it’s the biggest shake-up to the H-1B program in decades. If you’re an employer or an international grad, the old strategies are basically useless now.
How the new weighted lottery actually works
The government isn't just picking the highest salaries in the country and ignoring everyone else. That would be too simple. Instead, they are using the Department of Labor’s (DOL) four-tier prevailing wage system to assign "weights" to every person who registers.
Think of it like a raffle where some people get to buy more tickets than others.
The number of entries you get depends on which "Level" your salary falls into for your specific job code (SOC) and your specific geographic area. Here is the breakdown of the new math:
- Level 4 (Highest): You get 4 entries in the lottery.
- Level 3: You get 3 entries.
- Level 2: You get 2 entries.
- Level 1 (Entry-level): You get just 1 entry.
If you're offered a Level 4 wage, your statistical chance of getting picked is going to skyrocket. Meanwhile, if you're a fresh grad on a Level 1 salary, you're looking at a much steeper uphill climb.
USCIS is being very clear: they want to prioritize "the best and the brightest," and they’re using salary as the proxy for skill. Whether you agree with that logic or not, it's the new reality starting February 27, 2026.
The $100,000 elephant in the room
It’s not just the wage levels that are changing. People are still reeling from the Presidential Proclamation that added a $100,000 fee for certain H-1B petitions.
This fee specifically hits companies hiring people who are currently outside the U.S. and don't already have a valid H-1B visa. If you're already here on an F-1 or L-1 and you're doing a "change of status," you generally don't have to pay it. But for international recruitment? That $100k price tag, combined with the new wage-weighting, makes hiring from abroad incredibly expensive and legally complex.
Why location matters more than the raw number
Here is a weird nuance most people miss: a $120,000 salary might be a "Level 1" in San Francisco, but that exact same $120,000 could be a "Level 4" in a smaller city like Des Moines or San Antonio.
Since the weights are based on the local prevailing wage for that specific metro area, the "winning" strategy isn't just about the highest dollar amount. It’s about the highest dollar amount relative to the local market.
We might see a massive shift where companies start moving H-1B roles to lower-cost-of-living areas just to snag those extra lottery entries. If a company can pay a Level 4 wage in a cheaper city for the same cost as a Level 1 wage in a tech hub, why wouldn't they? It’s a literal 4x increase in the probability of getting the visa approved.
What about "gaming" the system?
You might think, "Okay, I'll just tell USCIS I'm paying Level 4 to get the 4 entries, and then pay less later."
👉 See also: US Dollar Malaysia Currency: Why the Ringgit is Finally Winning
Bad idea.
USCIS is onto this. The new rule requires employers to specify the exact wage level, the SOC code, and the work location during the initial registration in March. If you get selected at Level 4, you must prove that the wage you’re paying actually matches that level when you file the full petition.
If they catch a company trying to manipulate the odds by inflating the wage level or using the wrong job code, they can deny the petition or even revoke it later. They've even mentioned that if a beneficiary has multiple registrations at different wage levels from different companies, USCIS will default them to the lowest level for the lottery. They aren't playing around with the "multiple registration" loophole anymore.
Who wins and who loses?
There is no sugarcoating it: this is a tough break for entry-level workers and small businesses.
- Big Tech and Law Firms: These guys usually pay Level 3 or 4 anyway. They’re going to love this because their "hit rate" in the lottery will go way up.
- Startups: Honestly, it’s a nightmare. If you’re a scrappy startup that can’t afford to pay top-tier market rates yet, your ability to hire international talent just got significantly harder.
- International Students: This is the group most at risk. Most new grads start at Level 1. According to some Small Business Administration (SBA) estimates, the probability of a Level 1 registration being selected could drop by as much as 42% under this new system.
Legal hurdles ahead
Is this set in stone? Mostly. But there's always a "but" with immigration law.
There are already rumblings about federal court challenges. Groups like the American Immigration Council and various Chambers of Commerce have argued in the past that DHS doesn't have the authority to change how the lottery works—only Congress can do that. Back in 2021, a similar attempt was struck down by a judge in California because the guy who signed the rule wasn't "lawfully serving" in his role at the time.
This time, the administration has been much more careful with the procedural paperwork. Unless a judge issues an immediate injunction, you should plan for this to be the law of the land for the March 2026 lottery.
What you should do right now
If you’re planning to participate in the upcoming cap season, you can't wait until March to figure this out. The lead time for H-1B prep just got a lot longer.
For Employers:
- Audit your wages now. Don't just look at the salary; look at how it fits into the DOL's OEWS four-tier data for the specific county where the employee will work.
- Decide if you can "bump" anyone. If an employee is $5,000 away from hitting Level 2, it is almost certainly worth the raise to double their lottery chances.
- Review remote work policies. If an employee works from home in a cheaper area, their wage level might naturally be higher than if they were tied to a high-cost HQ office.
For Employees:
- Know your level. Don't guess. Go to the FLC Data Center and look up your SOC code and county.
- Negotiate. If you're an international student on OPT, your market value just changed. Your "value" to the company now includes how likely you are to actually get a visa.
- Have a Plan B. Because Level 1 and Level 2 odds are going down, you need to look at alternatives like the O-1 (extraordinary ability), cap-exempt employers (universities or non-profit research), or even Day 1 CPT if you're desperate to stay.
The era of the "lucky" H-1B is over. We’re moving into the era of the "expensive" H-1B. It's a fundamental shift from a lottery based on who you are to a lottery based on what you’re worth to the bottom line.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Identify the SOC code for your specific role to see which wage levels apply.
- Run a "Probability Check" comparing current salaries against the four-tier prevailing wage for your specific work location.
- Consult with immigration counsel by early February to ensure your registration data is defensible before the March window opens.