We’ve all been there. You’re scrolling through a social media feed—maybe TikTok or a grainy Facebook repost—and you see a mugshot. The person looks totally normal. Maybe they’re even smiling. Then the caption hits you with that hook: guess what crime they did.
It’s a game. A dark one, sure, but a game nonetheless.
Humans are wired for pattern recognition. We want to believe we can "see" evil. We look at the set of a jaw or the squint of an eye and try to map it to a specific transgression. Did they embezzle millions? Is it something way darker? Most of the time, our intuition is dead wrong. Honestly, that’s exactly why these "guess the crime" threads go viral every single day. We love being shocked by the disconnect between appearance and reality.
Why We Can't Stop Playing Guess What Crime They Did
There is a specific cognitive bias at play here called the Halo Effect. Basically, if someone is physically attractive or looks "kind," our brains struggle to associate them with violent or predatory behavior. When we play a round of guess what crime they did and find out the "sweet grandmother" was actually a serial poisoner like Nannie Doss, it creates cognitive dissonance.
It's a jolt to the system.
According to Dr. Coltan Scrivner, a researcher at the Recreational Fear Lab, humans have an evolutionary need to understand "morbid curiosity." In the past, knowing who the "bad guys" were in a tribe was a survival mechanism. Today, that instinct has been gamified. We aren't checking the perimeter of the village anymore; we’re scrolling through r/SwordAndScale or True Crime YouTube channels trying to sharpen our "predator radar."
The problem? Our radar is actually pretty terrible.
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Research published in Nature has shown that people cannot reliably detect "criminality" just by looking at a face. Despite what 19th-century phrenologists—who thought bumps on your head proved you were a thief—tried to claim, there is no "criminal look." Yet, the guess what crime they did trend persists because it feeds our desire for narrative. We want the world to make sense. We want the bad guy to look like a villain. When they don’t, we’re fascinated.
The Famous Faces That Broke the Internet
Think about the cases that always pop up in these discussions.
Take the case of Jeremy Meeks. Back in 2014, his mugshot went nuclear. People weren't guessing he was arrested for felony weapon possession; they were trying to get him a modeling contract. He became the "Hot Felon." The crime became secondary to the aesthetic. This is the inverted version of the game, where the "guess" is overshadowed by the "vibe."
Then you have the opposite end of the spectrum.
Consider the "Golden State Killer," Joseph James DeAngelo. For decades, he was just a suburban neighbor. A retired guy. If you saw a photo of him at a backyard BBQ in 1995 and had to guess what crime they did, you’d probably say "unlicensed fishing" or maybe "jaywalking." You wouldn't guess he was one of the most prolific serial violators in American history. The mundane nature of his appearance is what allowed him to hide in plain sight.
The Digital Evolution of Mugshot Culture
Social media has turned "guess what crime they did" into a high-engagement format. Platforms like Instagram and TikTok thrive on "storytime" videos where a creator shows a series of photos and waits for the comments to flood in with theories.
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- The "Karen" Archetype: Often leads to guesses about public disturbances or assault.
- The Corporate Suit: People immediately jump to white-collar fraud or Ponzi schemes.
- The Disheveled Mugshot: Usually associated with substance issues, even when the actual crime is something unrelated like trespassing.
It’s rarely about justice. It’s about the "reveal."
The Ethics of the Guessing Game
We have to talk about the "mugshot industry." For a long time, websites would scrape police records, post mugshots, and then charge people thousands of dollars to take them down. Even if the charges were dropped. Even if they were innocent.
When we participate in guess what crime they did with real, contemporary people, we’re often interacting with the worst moment of someone’s life for five seconds of entertainment. It’s a bit messy, isn't it?
There's a massive difference between guessing the crime of a historical figure like H.H. Holmes and doing it to a random person arrested last Tuesday in Ohio. The latter can have real-world consequences for someone’s ability to get a job or rent an apartment, even if they’re never convicted.
The Science: Can You Actually Tell?
Short answer: No.
Psychologists have run studies where participants are shown mugshots of people convicted of violent crimes versus people convicted of non-violent crimes. The success rate for guessing correctly? Usually right around 50%. Total chance. Flip a coin.
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You might think you’re an expert because you’ve watched 400 hours of Mindhunter or Dateline, but humans are notoriously bad at "reading" people they don't know. Micro-expressions are a thing, sure, but a static photo? It’s a Rorschach test. You aren't seeing the crime; you're seeing your own prejudices and assumptions reflected back at you.
If you see a young man in a hoodie and guess "theft," but see a man in a cardigan and guess "tax evasion," you’re just playing into societal stereotypes.
How to Engage With True Crime Responsibly
If you're a fan of the "guess what crime they did" genre, there are ways to lean into that curiosity without being a total ghoul. True crime can be a tool for advocacy—think about the "citizen detectives" who actually helped solve cold cases or find missing persons through meticulous research.
- Focus on Cold Cases: Use your curiosity to keep names alive in cases that haven't been solved. The "guess" here isn't about the perpetrator's face, but about the evidence left behind.
- Check the Source: Avoid "mugshot exploit" sites. They’re predatory.
- Acknowledge the Victims: It’s easy to get caught up in the "coolness" of a mystery and forget there’s a family behind the story.
- Look for Systems, Not Just Faces: Instead of wondering why a person "looks" like a criminal, look at the circumstances. Poverty, mental health access, and systemic failures usually tell a much more accurate story than the shape of someone's nose.
The next time you see a "Guess What Crime They Did" post, take a second. Look at your first instinct. Ask yourself why you guessed that. Most of the time, the answer says a lot more about your own brain than it does about the person in the photo.
True crime is at its best when it teaches us about human nature, law, and the complexities of the mind. It’s at its worst when it reduces human beings to a parlor game.
Next Steps for True Crime Enthusiasts:
- Audit your media consumption: Are you following creators who provide context, or just those who use "shock" thumbnails?
- Research the "Innocence Project": See how many people were "guessed" to be guilty based on appearance or flimsy evidence, only to be cleared by DNA years later.
- Engage with victim-centric storytelling: Shift the focus from "what did this person do" to "how can we support the community affected."