You’ve seen the videos. Brown water churning over banks, swallowing cypress trees that have stood for a hundred years. It looks like a different world, doesn't it? But honestly, if you’re looking at the Guadalupe River flooding today, you’re looking at a ghost story that’s still being written in real-time.
Right now, the river is mostly quiet.
According to the latest USGS and NOAA gauge data for January 14, 2026, the Guadalupe River at Hunt is sitting at a provisional gage height of about 7.7 feet, while the Kerrville gauge is hovering near 1.23 feet. These are normal, peaceful levels. However, if you talk to anyone in Kerr County or New Braunfels, they’ll tell you "quiet" is a relative term. We are exactly six months out from the July 4, 2025, disaster that claimed over 130 lives and left the Hill Country reeling.
Basically, the "flooding" everyone is talking about today isn't necessarily a current wall of water. It's the lingering trauma, the active rebuilding, and the terrifying realization that our flood maps might be completely wrong.
Why the Guadalupe River Flooding Today is a Different Kind of Threat
Central Texas is known as "Flash Flood Alley" for a reason. The Balcones Escarpment acts like a giant ramp for moisture, and when the sky opens up, the runoff hits the rocky ground and has nowhere to go but the river bed.
Today, the primary concern isn't a new storm—it's the Canyon Lake capacity.
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As of this morning, Canyon Lake is approximately 61.4% full, sitting at an elevation of 888.32 feet. That is more than 20 feet below the "conservation pool" (the level where it's considered full). While that sounds safe, the management of this water is a constant tightrope walk. The Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority (GBRA) and the Army Corps of Engineers have to balance releasing enough water to keep the hydroelectric plants running and the downstream cities like Victoria supplied, without causing artificial flooding in New Braunfels or Seguin.
The July 4 Hangover
It’s hard to overstate how much the 2025 flood changed the landscape. In Kerrville, the river rose to a staggering 34.40 feet, a new record that surpassed the 1932 crest. People like Joe Herrera, who survived the surge by being tied to a neighbor with a rope, are just now getting back into their homes.
But the scars are everywhere:
- Empty lots where houses used to be.
- Fresh dirt foundations in New Braunfels.
- The two people, including an 8-year-old girl, who are still missing.
When people search for news on the Guadalupe River flooding today, they are often looking for updates on the $300 million warning system upgrades the state legislature just approved. We’re talking about new sirens, better sensors, and hopefully, a system that doesn't rely on officials who might be asleep when the water starts rising.
Managing the Flow: New Braunfels and Downstream
In New Braunfels, the "today" status is all about recreation safety. The city monitors flow rates in Cubic Feet per Second (cfs).
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- Below 500 cfs: It’s a party. Tubing is wide open.
- 500 - 750 cfs: Life jackets are required for the kids.
- Over 1,000 cfs: The river is closed to tubers.
Right now, the flows are well within the recreational range (around 78 cfs above the Comal confluence), but that can change in a heartbeat. If a stray cell hits the upper Guadalupe, that water takes hours to travel down to the "chute" in New Braunfels. You could be floating in sunshine while a wall of debris-filled water is already heading your way from Comfort.
What the Experts are Watching
The National Weather Service (NWS) and the West Gulf River Forecast Center are the ones glued to the screens. They look at "Action Stages." For example, at the Victoria gauge, the flood of record is 34.04 feet (from 1998). Even though it's currently at a low 4.4 feet, the city lives in the shadow of that 1998 disaster.
One big misconception? That Canyon Lake is there to keep the river pretty for tourists.
Nope. It was built for flood control.
Sometimes, the Corps of Engineers has to hold water back until the lake is dangerously high. Other times, they have to release it even when it’s low to satisfy downstream legal requirements for chemical plants and agriculture. It's a messy, political, and technical process that leaves a lot of riverfront property owners feeling frustrated.
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Living in the Floodplain: What You Need to Do
If you live anywhere near the Guadalupe, from the North and South Forks down to the confluence with the San Antonio River, "today" is the day to prep. Don't wait for the rain.
- Check the Gauges: Bookmark the USGS WaterWatch page for the Guadalupe River. Look at the "Stage" and "Flow."
- Understand the "100-Year" Myth: A 100-year flood doesn't happen once every century. It means there is a 1% chance of it happening every single year. You can have two in two weeks.
- Get the Alerts: Sign up for the Regional Emergency Alert Network (REAN) if you’re in Seguin or New Braunfels.
- Flood Insurance: FEMA maps are often outdated. Just because you aren't in the "shaded" area doesn't mean your living room won't become a swimming pool.
Honestly, the Guadalupe is one of the most beautiful places in Texas, but she’s temperamental. Respect the power of the water. Whether you’re planning a trip to the Horseshoe or you’re a resident in a stilt house on River Road, staying informed is the only way to stay safe.
The river is quiet this morning, but in the Hill Country, that’s just the time to get your plan in order.
Actionable Next Steps:
Check the real-time discharge rates at the New Braunfels USGS gauge (08168500) before heading out. If the flow is rising sharply above 500 cfs, reconsider any planned river activities, as water clarity and safety can degrade rapidly even without local rain.