Graphite is boring. Or at least, that’s what most people thought until the world realized every electric vehicle battery needs a massive amount of it. Now, everyone is staring at the ticker for Graphite One Inc. (GPHOF or GPH on the TSX-V). If you’ve been watching the graphite one share price, you know it’s been a wild ride lately. As of mid-January 2026, the stock has been showing some serious teeth, jumping up to around $1.66 USD on the OTC markets.
That’s a big move.
Actually, it’s more like a 20% surge in a single week. But here’s the thing: chasing the "green line" on a chart is a great way to lose money if you don't understand the "why" behind the movement. Graphite One isn't just another penny stock digging a hole in the ground; it’s basically becoming a strategic arm of the U.S. government’s supply chain.
Why the Graphite One Share Price is Moving Now
The market is finally waking up to the fact that the U.S. is 100% dependent on imports for natural graphite. Most of that comes from China. That's a problem for the Department of Defense.
Over the last few months, the news flow has been relentless. In December 2025, Graphite One dropped a bombshell about their Graphite Creek deposit in Alaska. It’s not just graphite anymore. Independent testing confirmed the presence of 14 magnet or Heavy Rare Earth Elements (HREE).
Think about that.
They were already sitting on the largest graphite deposit in the country. Now, they’ve discovered they might be able to pull out high-value rare earths as a "by-product." In the mining world, by-products are like finding a hundred-dollar bill in the pocket of a coat you were already planning to buy. It drives the cost of production down significantly.
📖 Related: What Really Happened With Moki Doorstep: The Shark Tank Deal Everyone Forgot
The Billion-Dollar Safety Net
If you’re wondering why the graphite one share price feels a bit more "stable" than your average junior miner, look at the bank account—or at least the letters of interest. The U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) has been playing fairy godmother here.
By late 2025, EXIM increased its non-binding letters of interest to a staggering $2.07 billion.
- $1.5 billion for the Alaska mine.
- The rest for the Ohio manufacturing plant.
That is a massive amount of "social proof." When the government signals it’s willing to back a project with billions, the "risk of ruin" for investors starts to look a lot different. Of course, "non-binding" is the keyword there. It’s not a check in the mail yet. But it’s a very loud signal to the rest of the market.
The 2025 Feasibility Study: The Real Numbers
Mining stocks live and die by their Feasibility Study (FS). Graphite One released theirs in April 2025, and it was a monster. It wasn’t just a slight update; it was a total overhaul.
They tripled their proven and probable reserves. Honestly, that’s unheard of for a project that was already considered "large."
The project now has a post-tax Net Present Value (NPV) of $5 billion with a 27% Internal Rate of Return (IRR). For the non-finance nerds, that basically means the project is expected to print money once it’s running. They are looking at a 20-year mine life, and they’ve only actually explored about 12% of the deposit area.
Understanding the Risks (Because Nothing is a Sure Bet)
It’s easy to get swept up in the hype, but let’s be real. The graphite one share price still faces some serious hurdles.
- Permitting: Alaska is beautiful, but it’s a nightmare for permits. The project is currently on the FAST-41 federal dashboard, which is supposed to speed things up, but "fast" in government terms is still "slow" for an investor.
- Dilution: To build a multi-billion dollar project, you need cash. Graphite One has been issuing shares to stay afloat. Every time they issue new shares, your "slice of the pie" gets a little smaller.
- Construction Risk: Moving dirt in the Arctic is expensive. One bad winter or a logistical breakdown can send costs through the roof.
Technical Analysis: The Chart Doesn't Lie
Right now, the stock is trading well above its 200-day moving average. Some analysts are calling it a "Momentum Trap" because the RSI (Relative Strength Index) has dipped into overbought territory a few times recently.
But if you look at the 52-week range—roughly $0.47 to $1.67—it’s clear that the "floor" for the stock has moved up.
Most analysts covering the stock, like those at Fundamental Research, have a buy rating with price targets sitting way higher, some around the C$2.85 mark. That represents a pretty juicy upside if they can hit their 2026 milestones.
🔗 Read more: US Currency Rate in Indian Rupees Today: Why It Hit 90.87 and What’s Next
What to Watch for in 2026
If you’re holding or watching the graphite one share price, keep your eyes on the "Phase 1" milestones. They aren't going to build the whole thing at once. The plan is modular.
They want to start with a smaller facility in Warren, Ohio, to produce synthetic graphite first. This generates cash flow while they wait for the Alaska mine to finish the long, painful permitting process.
Also, watch the Rare Earth testing. In 2026, the company is working with a U.S. National Lab to figure out how to actually extract those magnet rare earths. If they prove it’s easy and cheap, the valuation of the company could fundamentally shift from a "graphite play" to a "critical minerals powerhouse."
Actionable Steps for Investors
Don't just buy the hype. Do the work.
- Check the SEDAR+ filings: Look for the NI 43-101 technical report. It’s dense, but it tells you the truth about the grade of the ore and the costs.
- Monitor EXIM Bank updates: If those "letters of interest" turn into "final commitments," that’s usually a massive catalyst for the share price.
- Watch the Lithium-Ion market: Graphite is the "anode" material. If EV sales tank or a new battery tech replaces graphite (unlikely in the next decade, but still), Graphite One loses its main customer base.
- Verify the float: Keep an eye on the "shares outstanding" number. If it’s growing faster than the project’s progress, be cautious.
Ultimately, the graphite one share price is a bet on American industrial policy. If you believe the U.S. will do whatever it takes to stop relying on China for battery materials, then this is one of the most direct ways to play that trend. Just remember that in mining, things always take longer and cost more than the brochure says.