Politics in Maine just got weird. Really weird.
Most people expected the 2026 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate to be a coronation for Governor Janet Mills. She’s the establishment favorite, a two-term governor, and the person national Democrats think can finally unseat Susan Collins. But the data says something else entirely. A recent University of New Hampshire (UNH) Survey Center poll dropped a metaphorical bomb on the race, showing insurgent candidate Graham Platner leading Janet Mills by a massive margin.
How massive? We’re talking 58% for Platner compared to just 24% for Mills.
That is not a margin of error. That is a landslide. For a political newcomer—an oyster farmer and Marine Corps veteran—to be doubling the score of a sitting governor is practically unheard of in modern Maine politics. It’s left analysts scratching their heads and party insiders scrambling.
The Numbers Behind the Platner Leading Mills Poll
If you look at the raw data, the divide is almost entirely generational. Platner is effectively capturing the "disillusioned" vote. Young people, progressives, and those who identify as socialists are flocking to him in droves.
According to the UNH data, Platner holds a 2-to-1 lead among voters aged 18 to 34. Honestly, it’s even sharper than that in some sub-groups. Meanwhile, Mills still holds her own with the 55-plus crowd, but even there, the "safe" candidate isn't as safe as she used to be. The poll was conducted right as Platner was facing a "maelstrom" of negative press, yet his numbers didn't budge. If anything, the controversy seems to have solidified his base.
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It’s a classic insider vs. outsider story.
Mills represents the old guard. She's 77. If elected, she’d be the oldest freshman senator in history. Platner is 41, blunt, and looks like he just stepped off a fishing boat—because he basically did. He’s running a populist campaign endorsed by Bernie Sanders, and it’s clearly resonating with Mainers who feel the state’s political elite have lost the plot.
Scandals, Tattoos, and Reddit Posts
Usually, when a candidate has a "Reddit scandal," their campaign ends. Quickly.
In October 2025, reports surfaced about Platner’s past online activity. We're talking about posts from years ago that used offensive language and crude humor. Then there was the tattoo. Platner had a skull-and-crossbones design on his chest that critics pointed out was associated with a Nazi paramilitary group.
He didn't hide. He didn't issue a sterile, corporate apology drafted by a PR firm.
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Instead, Platner went on a "transparency tour." He explained the tattoo was a drunken mistake made while on leave in Croatia nearly 20 years ago. He got it covered up on camera. He admitted the Reddit posts were "dark and crude" reflections of his struggle with PTSD and depression after leaving the military.
Why didn't the scandals sink him?
- Authenticity: Voters seem to prefer a flawed human who admits to being a "dumb kid" over a polished politician who never says anything real.
- The "Establishment" Foil: Platner successfully framed the leaks as a hit job by the Democratic establishment. He told a crowd in Ogunquit that the "elites" were trying to destroy his life because they were "spooked."
- The Issues: While the media talked about his chest, Platner talked about the cost of housing and the death of the working class.
The Susan Collins Factor
The whole point of this primary is to find someone who can beat Susan Collins. She’s been in office for nearly 30 years. She is the ultimate political survivor.
The Pan Atlantic Research poll, which came out shortly after the UNH survey, showed a slightly different picture but confirmed the core trend. It had Mills leading by 10 points (47% to 37%), which suggests the race is tightening as more people tune in. However, both polls agree on one critical thing: both Mills and Platner are in a "dead heat" in hypothetical matchups against Collins.
If Platner can prove he’s just as electable as Mills, the establishment's biggest argument against him—that he's "too risky"—falls apart.
What This Means for Maine’s Future
This isn't just a local spat. National Democrats are watching this closely because the path to a Senate majority might run straight through Portland and Bangor. If the Platner leading Mills poll trends continue into the spring of 2026, the DNC might have to decide whether to embrace a populist firebrand or keep pouring money into a governor who is struggling to capture her own party's youth.
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The "safe" choice isn't always the winning choice.
We’ve seen this movie before in other states. An insurgent candidate captures the energy, the establishment panics, and the primary becomes a civil war. Maine's ranked-choice voting system adds another layer of complexity. If other minor candidates stay in the race, those second-choice votes could decide everything.
Actionable Insights for Maine Voters
If you're trying to make sense of this race before the primary, here’s how to cut through the noise:
- Watch the Fundraising: Platner raised $3 million early on without big-donor help. If his small-dollar donations keep pace with Mills’ corporate backing, he has the "legs" to go the distance.
- Ignore the Headlines, Look at the Town Halls: The media focus on Platner's past is a distraction from his policy platform. Listen to his stance on labor and veterans' affairs compared to Mills’ more centrist approach.
- Age vs. Experience: Decide if you value Mills’ decades of legislative experience or Platner’s "new blood" energy. There is no middle ground here.
- Check the Latest Polling: Polling in Maine is notoriously difficult because of the rural population and ranked-choice system. Look for "likely voter" screens rather than general population surveys.
The primary is coming fast. Whether you want a seasoned governor or an oyster farmer with a messy past, one thing is certain: the Platner leading Mills poll proves that Maine’s political status quo is under serious threat.
Keep an eye on the next round of data from the UNH Survey Center. If Platner maintains his lead through the winter, the "coronation" of Janet Mills is officially cancelled.