Politics in the Empire State has a way of feeling like a foregone conclusion right up until it isn't. People look at the blue maps, the voter registration math, and the massive fundraising gaps and think they’ve seen this movie before. But honestly, the governor's race New York is shaping up to be a total outlier this time around.
We’ve got an incumbent who hasn't quite won over the hearts and minds of the base, a hand-picked second-in-command who decided he’d rather be the boss, and a Republican field that just got flipped on its head by a last-minute withdrawal. It's messy. It's expensive. And it's definitely not what the Democratic establishment had on their 2026 bingo card.
The Civil War: Hochul vs. Delgado
Usually, the Lieutenant Governor is the person standing behind the Governor at ribbon-cuttings, nodding and looking supportive. Antonio Delgado decided he was done with that. On June 2, 2025, he blew up the status quo by announcing he was challenging Kathy Hochul in the Democratic primary.
This isn't just some minor disagreement over policy. Reports have been swirling for months about a "fraying relationship" between the two. Basically, Delgado is betting that there is a huge appetite for a different kind of Democrat—one who doesn't carry the baggage of the Cuomo era or the recent approval rating slumps that have dogged Hochul.
Let’s look at the numbers. They matter.
- Kathy Hochul: She’s sitting on a massive $20 million war chest as of January 2026. She raised $5.4 million in just the second half of 2025.
- Antonio Delgado: He’s the most successful "progressive" challenger in terms of cash that we've seen in a long time. He pulled in $1.2 million in the back half of last year and has roughly $2.5 million specifically for this run.
Wait, it gets weirder.
Even though Delgado has the momentum of a "disruptor," the latest John Zogby Strategies poll from early January 2026 shows Hochul leading him 64% to 12%. That is a massive gap. But there’s a catch—24% of voters are still undecided. If you're Delgado, you're looking at that 24% and the 55% of New Yorkers who told Siena College they want "someone else" as your path to victory.
Why Hochul is Vulnerable
You can't talk about the governor's race New York without mentioning the "vulnerability factor." Hochul became the first woman governor of New York after Andrew Cuomo resigned in 2021. She won a full term in 2022, but it was the closest race the state had seen since 1994. She beat Lee Zeldin by only about 6 points ($53.1%$ to $46.7%$).
In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-to-1, that’s a nail-biter.
People are frustrated. Congestion pricing in Manhattan? It’s a lightning rod. Even though Hochul paused it and then tried to bring it back in a modified form, she managed to annoy people on both sides of the issue. Then there’s the affordability crisis. Rent is up. Grocery bills are insane. Voters often blame the person at the top, and in Albany, that’s Hochul.
The Republican Shuffle: Enter Bruce Blakeman
For most of 2025, everyone assumed the GOP nominee would be Elise Stefanik. She’s a powerhouse in D.C., a close ally of Donald Trump, and she had the name ID. She even launched her campaign in November.
Then, everything changed in December.
Stefanik dropped out. Totally stunned the political world. She said she wanted to focus on her family and her young son, and she isn’t even running for her House seat again. Suddenly, the lane was wide open.
Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman didn't waste a second. He jumped in just days before Stefanik left, and on December 20, 2025, he got the "Golden Ticket": a full endorsement from Donald Trump.
Blakeman is an interesting character for the governor's race New York. He just won reelection in Nassau County by 12 points—in a place that usually leans blue. He’s built his brand on "suburban grievances":
- Fighting the mask mandates (when they were a thing).
- Banning transgender athletes from county facilities.
- Attacking the state’s bail reform laws.
He’s basically the suburban version of the MAGA movement, and he's hoping that "Long Island energy" can carry him through the Hudson Valley and into the Upstate strongholds.
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The Issues That Will Actually Decide This
Let's be real: most voters don't care about the internal drama between Hochul and Delgado. They care about their bank accounts.
Affordability and the "New York Exit"
People are leaving. That’s not a Republican talking point; it’s a census fact. The cost of living is the number one topic in every coffee shop from Buffalo to Brooklyn. Hochul is trying to counter this with "inflation rebate checks," but the GOP is hammering her on state spending and high taxes.
Crime and Bail Reform
This was the issue that almost cost Democrats the mansion in 2022. While the data shows some crime categories are down, the perception of safety is still a major problem. Blakeman is going to run 24/7 ads on "law and order," while Delgado is trying to find a middle ground that satisfies the progressive wing without scaring off the moderates.
The Trump Factor
In 2026, you can't escape it. Trump’s endorsement of Blakeman is a double-edged sword. It guarantees Blakeman the GOP base and helps with fundraising, but it’s a massive "get out the vote" gift for Democrats in New York City. The city's new Mayor-elect, Zohran Mamdani, is already signaling he won't work with the Trump administration. This creates a weird dynamic where the Governor has to be the "adult in the room" between a hostile City Hall and a potentially hostile White House.
What Most People Get Wrong About This Race
The biggest misconception is that New York is "too blue" for a Republican to win.
Is it hard? Yeah. Is it impossible? No.
If the Democratic primary between Hochul and Delgado turns into a bloodbath, the winner might emerge with $0 in the bank and a bunch of bitter voters who stay home in November. That is exactly how George Pataki won in 1994.
Actionable Insights for New York Voters
The governor's race New York is moving faster than the news cycle can keep up with. If you want to actually have a say in how this plays out, you need to mark these dates:
- April 6, 2026: This is the filing deadline. This is when we’ll know if any other "wildcards" (like maybe a celebrity or a billionaire) are actually getting on the ballot.
- June 23, 2026: Primary Day. In New York, if you aren't registered with a party, you can't vote in this. If you want to choose between Hochul and Delgado, or Blakeman and any late GOP challengers, check your registration now.
- Early Voting: It starts June 13th for the primary. No excuses.
The state is at a crossroads. We've got a $230 billion budget and a population that’s feeling the squeeze. Whether it’s the "status quo" with Hochul, a "progressive shift" with Delgado, or a "suburban revolt" with Blakeman, the 2026 election is going to be the most consequential one we've seen in decades.
If you’re planning to follow this, stop looking at the national polls. They don't matter here. Watch the turnout in the suburbs of Nassau and Westchester. That’s where the 2026 governor is going to be picked.
I’ll be watching the fundraising disclosures coming out in July. That’s when we’ll see if Delgado’s "matching funds" strategy actually gives him enough oxygen to survive the Hochul media machine.
Check your voter registration status on the NY State Board of Elections website today to ensure you are eligible for the June 23rd primary.