It was supposed to be a nail-biter. Honestly, if you looked at the polls back in September 2025, you would’ve bet your house on a photo finish. Republican Jack Ciattarelli was coming off a 2021 run where he nearly toppled Phil Murphy, and the 2024 presidential results showed New Jersey shifting slightly rightward.
But then November 4, 2025, actually happened.
Mikie Sherrill didn't just win the governor of New Jersey race; she basically redrew the map. The former Navy helicopter pilot and congresswoman grabbed 56.88% of the popular vote, leaving Ciattarelli with 42.52%. That’s a 14.4-point gap. For context, Phil Murphy only cleared Ciattarelli by about 3 points four years prior. People are calling it a landslide, and frankly, the numbers back that up. Sherrill secured 1,896,610 votes compared to Ciattarelli’s 1,417,705.
The Numbers That Flipped the Script
Voter turnout was surprisingly high for an off-year election, hitting 51.44%. That is a massive jump of nearly 11% from previous cycles. People actually showed up.
Why the blowout?
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It kinda came down to the "Trump factor" and a massive gender gap. In the final weeks, Quinnipiac polling showed Sherrill leading by 20 points among women. While Ciattarelli held a slim lead with men (50% to 43%), it wasn't enough to offset the suburban surge for Sherrill.
Demographic breakdown of the vote:
- Black Voters: Heavily favored Sherrill.
- Hispanic Voters: Strong majority for the Democratic ticket.
- College-Educated Voters: Sherrill’s core base.
- White Men without a College Degree: Ciattarelli’s strongest demographic.
Sherrill even did the unthinkable: she won Morris County. No Democrat had done that in a governor's race since 1973. She also came within single digits in Hunterdon County, which is usually deep-red territory.
Taxes vs. Rights: What Moved the Needle
If you ask a Jerseyan what they care about, they’ll say "taxes" before you even finish the sentence. Ciattarelli knew this. He hammered away at property taxes—which averaged over $10,000 last year—and promised to cap them. He also wanted to cut state spending by 30%.
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It didn't stick as well as he hoped.
Sherrill pivoted the conversation toward "ethics in government" and "healthcare." According to Quinnipiac, 78% of people who prioritized ethics voted for her. She also tied Ciattarelli to the national GOP at every turn. Her campaign slogan might as well have been "I’m the pilot who will stand up to Trump." In a state where 56% of voters disapproved of the federal administration at the time, that was a winning hand.
Key Issues by the Percentages:
- Taxes (25% of voters): Ciattarelli won this group 72-21.
- Ethics in Govt (16% of voters): Sherrill won this group 78-16.
- Health Care (14% of voters): Sherrill dominated here with 87%.
The Running Mates and the Ground Game
Sherrill picked Dale Caldwell, the President of Centenary University, as her Lieutenant Governor. It was a smart, stabilizing move. On the other side, Ciattarelli went with Morris County Sheriff James Gannon.
The Gannon pick was supposed to cut into Sherrill’s home turf in NJ-11. It sort of worked, as the two have a "cordial" history, but Sherrill’s federal prosecutor background and military service made her tough to attack on "law and order" issues.
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The primary was a bloodbath too. Sherrill had to fight off Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, who took 20.7% of the primary vote, and Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop (16%). Ciattarelli had an easier path, crushing radio host Bill Spadea with 67.8% of the Republican primary vote. But by the time the general election rolled around, the Democrat machine had consolidated.
The Future of the Garden State
So, what does this mean for 2026?
Sherrill is set to be sworn in on January 20, 2026. She’s walking into a Trenton where affordability is still a nightmare, despite her win. Her "first 100 days" plan includes:
- Housing: Converting underused commercial spaces into residential units.
- Drug Costs: Placing a hard cap on certain prescription medications.
- Child Tax Credit: Expanding state-level credits for families.
Ciattarelli’s third loss likely marks the end of an era for his brand of Republicanism in New Jersey. The state GOP is now at a crossroads: do they lean further into the "Spadea-style" populism or find a new moderate voice?
Actionable Next Steps for Jersey Residents
If you want to track how the new administration affects your wallet and your rights, keep an eye on these specific metrics over the next few months:
- Watch the NJ State Budget Hearings: This is where Sherrill’s "affordability" promises will meet reality. Look for specific line items regarding the Business Tax and child tax credits.
- Monitor Transit Reform: Sherrill campaigned on fixing NJ Transit. Check for new board appointments or funding shifts in early 2026.
- Local Property Tax Assessments: While the Governor doesn't set your local rate, keep an eye on state aid formulas which Sherrill has hinted at "re-evaluating" to help burdened school districts.
The governor of New Jersey race is over, but the work of governing in one of the most expensive states in America is just beginning.