If you’ve taken a look at the early polls for the governor of California election, you’re probably more confused than when you started. Honestly, it’s a bit of a circus. Gavin Newsom is packing his bags—well, eventually—because of term limits, and the vacuum he’s leaving is being filled by a crowd so large it feels like a Coachella lineup. But instead of headliners, we have a bunch of politicians all hovering around 10% to 15% in the polls.
Nobody is winning. At least, not yet.
Currently, about a third of California voters are basically shrugging their shoulders. "Undecided" is the most popular candidate in the state. That’s not an exaggeration; recent data from Emerson College and Berkeley IGS shows that nearly 45% of people haven't picked a horse in this race. It’s wild. Usually, by this point, a heavyweight has emerged, but 2026 is shaping up to be the year of the "Who Is That Again?" candidate.
The Top Contenders (And Why They’re Stuck)
Let's talk about the people actually running. You've got Katie Porter, the whiteboard-wielding former Congresswoman. She’s got the name ID, but she’s currently neck-and-neck with a Republican sheriff from Riverside County, Chad Bianco. Yeah, you read that right. In deep-blue California, a pro-Trump sheriff is currently leading or tied in several polls.
Why? Because the Democratic vote is being sliced thinner than deli meat.
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- Eric Swalwell: He just jumped in and immediately started cannibalizing Porter's support.
- Xavier Becerra: The former HHS Secretary and Attorney General is leaning hard into healthcare, but he’s carrying some "insider" baggage that isn't sitting well with everyone.
- Antonio Villaraigosa: The former L.A. Mayor is trying the "moderate" route again.
- Eleni Kounalakis and Toni Atkins: They actually dropped out. That was a shocker for people following the "inside baseball" of Sacramento.
Then there’s the billionaire factor. Tom Steyer is back. He’s got the money to buy every billboard from San Diego to Redding, which usually changes the math.
The Republican "Surge" That Isn't Really a Surge
It’s easy to look at Chad Bianco or Fox News contributor Steve Hilton leading the pack and think California is turning red. Kinda. But not really. California uses a "top-two" primary system. This means every candidate, regardless of party, is on one big ballot. The top two finishers move on to November.
Because there are like fifteen Democrats and only two or three "big" Republicans, the GOP candidates look stronger than they are. They have a "concentrated" base. If the Democrats keep splitting their 60% of the electorate between ten people, we could actually end up with a Republican vs. Republican or Republican vs. Democrat final where the math gets very weird.
What People Actually Care About (Hint: It’s the Rent)
If you ask a political consultant, they’ll talk about "threats to democracy" or national vibes. If you ask a guy at a Panera in Fresno, he’s going to talk about how a burrito costs $18 now.
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Affordability is the absolute "king" issue for the governor of California election.
Housing is a nightmare. It’s the reason people are moving to Texas and Arizona. Tony Thurmond, the State Superintendent, is trying to make "building two million homes" his whole personality. It’s a bold swing. Whether people believe he can actually do it is another story.
Then you have the "Trump Factor." In 2026, the midterms will be a referendum on the federal government. For California Democrats, that’s usually a gift. They can just point at Washington and say, "At least we aren't them." But with the state's own problems—homelessness, electricity costs, and the feeling that things are just "broken"—that finger-pointing might not work as well this time.
The Rick Caruso Shadow
We have to talk about Rick Caruso. He hasn't officially jumped in yet, but he’s looming. The man spent $100 million of his own money trying to be Mayor of L.A. and almost pulled it off. If he enters the race as a "common sense" Democrat (or independent), he flips the table. He has the money to bypass the party gatekeepers and go straight to the voters' living rooms via TV ads.
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Why the "None of the Above" Crowd is Winning
I mentioned that 45% of people are undecided. That's a huge red flag for the current field. It means the "established" names aren't inspiring anyone.
People are tired.
They’re tired of the same three talking points.
They’re tired of the same results.
Actionable Steps for California Voters
If you're trying to make sense of this mess before the June 2, 2026 primary, don't just look at the TV ads. Those are designed to make you feel, not think.
- Check the Endorsements: Look at who the labor unions and the business chambers are backing. In California, these groups provide the "ground game." If Becerra loses the labor unions, he’s toast.
- Follow the Money (Late): Don't worry about the fundraising totals today. Look at the "Independent Expenditure" committees in April 2026. That’s where the real "dirty" money lives.
- Watch the "Top-Two" Math: If you’re a Democrat, you might actually want to vote for the second most popular Republican in the primary just to ensure your preferred Democrat doesn't get knocked out by a split vote. It’s cynical, but it’s how the game is played here.
- Verify Candidate Claims on Housing: Every candidate says they will "fix housing." Look for specific mentions of CEQA reform (the California Environmental Quality Act). If they don't mention CEQA, they aren't serious about building.
The governor of California election is going to be the most expensive, most chaotic, and probably the most important race in the country in 2026. Between the billionaire climate activists, the "tough on crime" sheriffs, and the Sacramento insiders, the soul of the state is basically up for grabs. Keep an eye on the polls as we hit the February filing deadline—that's when the "pretenders" usually go home and the real fight starts.