You’re standing on the 18th green at Augusta. Or, more likely, you're staring at a spreadsheet on a Tuesday night trying to figure out if you should burn Scottie Scheffler in February or save him for the Masters. That’s the beautiful, maddening reality of golf one and done pools. They seem so simple on the surface. Pick one golfer per tournament. If they win, you get the big check. The catch? You can’t use them again for the rest of the year.
It's a game of resource management that feels more like high-stakes chess than a Sunday stroll.
I’ve seen people tank their entire season by "playing the chalk" (picking the favorite) every single week until they realize it's June and they have nobody left in their bag with a world ranking higher than 150. Honestly, it's painful to watch. Most people approach these pools with a "live for today" mentality, but that is exactly how you end up finishing in the middle of the pack. To win, you have to think about the schedule as a giant puzzle where the pieces change shape every time someone tweaks a groin muscle or finds a new putting grip.
The Mathematical Trap of the "Best Player Available"
Stop picking the best player on the board just because they are there. It’s tempting. You see Xander Schauffele at a course he loves, and you click "submit" before the coffee even hits your system. But wait. What does the rest of the Florida swing look like? What about the Majors?
In a standard golf one and done format, the money isn't distributed evenly. The purses at the Signature Events and the Majors are massive. If you waste a top-tier talent on a tournament with a $9 million purse when there are $20 million events on the horizon, you are effectively lighting potential earnings on fire. It’s basic math, yet people ignore it because they want the dopamine hit of a Top 10 finish this week.
Think about the "Earnings Density."
The PGA Tour schedule is top-heavy. You want your "studs"—your Rorys, your Scotties, your Ludvigs—anchored to the events where a win clears $3.5 or $4 million. If you use a superstar at the John Deere Classic, even if they win, you might actually be losing ground against the field over the long haul.
Course Fit and the "Horses for Courses" Reality
Golf is weirdly repetitive. Some guys just see the lines at specific tracks. Take Jordan Spieth at TPC San Antonio or Sahith Theegala at TPC Scottsdale. There are specific visual cues and grass types (looking at you, Poa Annua) that dictate performance more than current form ever will.
I remember talking to a veteran pool player who refused to pick anyone for the Sony Open who hadn't played the week before at Kapalua. Why? Because the data showed that "knocking the rust off" in Hawaii was a massive predictor of success at Waialae. That’s the kind of nuance you need. You aren't just picking a golfer; you're picking a specific golfer at a specific venue at a specific time in their biological clock.
Don't ignore the "revenge" factor or the "comfort" factor.
Why Bermuda Grass Matters More Than You Think
If you’re looking at a golf one and done pick for a tournament in Florida, you better check their putting stats on Bermuda. Some of the best ball-strikers in the world look like they’ve never held a flatstick when they get on grainy Southern greens. Conversely, some guys who struggle elsewhere suddenly turn into Ben Crenshaw when they get back to the surfaces they grew up on in Texas or Georgia.
Saving the Big Guns: The Major Championship Strategy
This is where the men are separated from the boys. Or the winners from the "thanks for playing" crowd.
You have four Majors. These are the lifeblood of your season. If you don't have a top-10 player available for the U.S. Open or The Open Championship, you are essentially conceding the season. A common mistake is using all the "Big Five" by the end of April.
Try this instead:
- Map out the four Majors.
- Assign one "Elite" player to each now.
- Block them off. Do not touch them.
- Even if they are playing out of their minds in March, if they are your "Open Championship Guy," they stay in the holster.
It takes discipline. It’s hard to sit on a hot hand. But the volatility of golf means that "current form" is often a mirage, while "class" is permanent. The guys who win the big ones are usually the guys who have done it before.
The "Swing" Strategy: When to Pivot
Every season has a middle stretch where the fields get a bit thinner. This is your opportunity to gain leverage. In golf one and done contests, "leverage" is picking a guy that nobody else is brave enough to touch.
If everyone is flocking to a popular mid-tier guy like Sungjae Im, maybe that’s the week you go with a "course specialist" who has three Top 5s at that specific event but is coming off two missed cuts. If he hits, you jump 50 spots in the standings because you aren't sharing the points with half the league.
You have to be okay with a missed cut.
That’s the hardest part of this game. A "Zero" for the week feels like a disaster. It burns. But a "Zero" is better than wasting a great player on a mediocre finish. You are playing for the ceiling, not the floor. If you play for the floor, you'll finish 12th in your pool and get nothing but a "good job" from your brother-in-law.
Real-World Example: The Scottie Scheffler Dilemma
In 2024, Scottie Scheffler went on a run that made him look like Tiger Woods in 2000. People who used him early at the Waste Management or the Arnold Palmer Invitational felt like geniuses. Then the Masters came. Then the Travelers. The people who had saved him for the $20 million Signature Events or the Majors ended up lapping the field.
It’s about "Replacement Level" value.
✨ Don't miss: Why Your Mock Draft 12 Man PPR Strategy Is Probably Failing You Right Now
If you use Scottie and he wins, you get $3.6 million. If you use a "replacement level" player (someone like a mid-tier pro) and they finish 20th, you get maybe $200k. The gap is $3.4 million. You need to maximize that gap in the weeks where the payout is highest.
Navigating the Signature Events
The PGA Tour changed the game with Signature Events. These are limited-field tournaments with no cut (mostly) and massive purses. In a golf one and done, these are your bread and butter.
Since there is often no cut, you are guaranteed some money. This is actually a great time to take a slight risk on a high-upside player who might be a bit inconsistent. You know you’ll get a paycheck, so you aren't risking a total "Zero," but the upside of a win is season-changing.
Tactical Steps for Your Season
Don't just wing it every Tuesday morning when the entry deadline is looming. You'll make emotional decisions based on who you saw on "Live From" the night before.
- Create a tiered list of golfers. Usually, 1-10 (Elites), 11-30 (Sub-Elites), and 31-70 (Consistent Grinders).
- Look at the schedule and identify the "High Purse" events. Match your Elites to these.
- Identify the "Weird" courses. Some tracks require specific skills—like the precision needed at Harbour Town. Match your "Grinders" who specialize in those skills to those weeks.
- Keep a "Break Glass in Case of Emergency" list. These are guys who are playing surprisingly well (check the Strokes Gained data) but weren't on your radar in January.
- Check the weather. Seriously. A Thursday morning tee time in a 30mph wind can ruin a "perfect" pick before you even finish lunch.
Common Pitfalls to Avoid
The biggest mistake? Chasing last week's winner.
Winning on the PGA Tour is exhausting. The media requirements, the physical toll, the emotional letdown—it all leads to a "hangover" effect. Unless it's a generational talent, picking the guy who just hoisted a trophy is usually a recipe for a T-45 finish.
Another one is ignoring the "Official World Golf Ranking" (OWGR) movement. Guys who are on the bubble of getting into the Masters or the U.S. Open often play with a desperate edge. That "desperation" can be a great tailwind for a one-and-done pick.
Actionable Next Steps
To actually win your golf one and done this year, stop looking at the current week in a vacuum. Open up the full schedule today.
Start by circling the five tournaments that have the largest purses and the five courses where you have a "gut feeling" about a specific player. Fill those in first. Those are your anchors. Everything else—the "filler" weeks—should be played with a mix of data-driven course history and a bit of calculated risk.
Check the "Strokes Gained: Approach" stats every week. It’s the most consistent indicator of long-term success. If a guy is flushing his irons but can't buy a putt, his "luck" is eventually going to turn. Catch him the week it does, and you'll be the one collecting the trophy at the end of the year.
Stay disciplined. Don't burn your stars too early. And for heaven's sake, double-check the entry list before you hit submit—nothing kills a season faster than picking a guy who isn't even in the field.