Honestly, if you’re looking at golf betting odds PGA Championship markets and only seeing Scottie Scheffler, you’re missing the actual story. Everyone knows Scottie is the guy. He’s essentially the sun that the rest of the PGA Tour orbits around right now. But betting on a major isn't just about picking the best player. It's about finding the friction between what the math says and what the course actually demands.
The 2026 PGA Championship is heading to Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania. This isn't just another stop on the tour. It’s a legendary Donald Ross design that has been poked, prodded, and lengthened to test the modern power game. When you see the current odds board, you'll notice the usual suspects at the top, but the "Ross factor" at Aronimink changes how those numbers should be read.
The Current State of the Board
Right now, the books are leaning heavily on recent form. It makes sense. If you've been watching the early 2026 swing, guys like Russell Henley and Hideki Matsuyama have been consistent, but the "Big Three" of the betting world—Scheffler, McIlroy, and DeChambeau—are commanding the shortest prices.
Here is what the top of the market looks like as we approach the spring:
- Scottie Scheffler (+350 to +400): He is the favorite in all four majors this year. A $100 bet only nets you about $350 or $400 in profit. That’s incredibly short for a field of 156 players, but when you're gaining strokes in every category like he is, the books don't have a choice.
- Rory McIlroy (+650 to +800): Rory has two PGA titles. He loves this tournament. His odds usually hover in this range because of his "win equity," but the gap between him and Scottie is widening.
- Bryson DeChambeau (+1000 to +1400): Since the PGA Championship is run by the PGA of America, the LIV guys are in the mix. Bryson is the wildcard that keeps oddsmakers awake at night. His distance at a place like Aronimink is a cheat code.
- Xander Schauffele (+1400 to +1800): The defending champ (from 2024) is finally getting the respect he deserves. He’s no longer the "best player to never win a major," and that psychological shift makes his +1600 price look like a bargain to some.
Why Aronimink Flips the Script
Donald Ross courses are famous for "turtleback" greens. They’re crowned. If you miss the center of the green by a foot, your ball doesn't just sit in the fringe; it trundles 20 yards away into a collection area. This is why looking at golf betting odds PGA Championship through the lens of Total Driving is a mistake.
You need to look at Strokes Gained: Around the Green.
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In 2021, we saw Phil Mickelson win this tournament at Kiawah Island at 250/1 odds. 250/1! That happened because the course required a specific type of creativity that the young "bomb and gouge" players didn't have yet. Aronimink isn't Kiawah, but it rewards the same kind of strategic patience.
If you see a player like Ludvig Aberg listed at +1800 or +2000, you have to ask yourself: does his short game hold up on Ross greens? Or is Justin Thomas at +2500 a better value because he’s arguably the most creative wedge player on the planet?
The "Longshot" Myth in the PGA Championship
There is a weird narrative that the PGA Championship is for the "everyman" golfer. People point to Shaun Micheel (2003) or Keegan Bradley (2011) as proof that anyone can win.
The data says otherwise.
Since 2014, almost every winner has been a top-tier star. Look at the list: Rory, Jason Day, Jimmy Walker (the outlier), Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Collin Morikawa, Phil, JT again, Brooks again, and Xander. Aside from Phil’s age-defying win, these guys were all in the top 20 of the World Golf Ranking when they lifted the Wanamaker Trophy.
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This means you should probably stop lighting money on fire with 300/1 longshots. The PGA Championship setup usually rewards the most complete players, not the luckiest ones.
How to Read the Odds Without Getting Fooled
When you look at a site like FanDuel or DraftKings, they use American odds.
If you see Jon Rahm at +1400, it means a $100 bet wins you $1,400. Simple.
But the real trick is comparing "Outright" odds to "Top 10" or "Top 20" markets. Often, a player like Tommy Fleetwood (+2500) might have a high price to win because he rarely closes the deal on Sundays, but his "Top 10" odds might be significantly better value than a more volatile player like Joaquin Niemann.
Hidden Value: The LIV Golf Factor
We have to talk about the LIV guys because they represent the biggest "market inefficiency" in golf betting. Because they play fewer 72-hole events, the computer models sometimes struggle to rank them accurately.
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Brooks Koepka at +4000 or +5000 is almost always a "must-bet." He treats majors like a business trip. If his odds are anywhere near the 40/1 range, it’s a mistake by the bookies. Period. The man has three PGA Championships. He knows how to peak for this specific week.
Then there’s Cameron Smith (+8000). If Aronimink plays firm and fast, Smith’s putting could neutralize everyone else’s power. At 80/1, you’re getting a former Open Champion at the price of a journeyman.
Actionable Strategy for Your Card
Don't just bet the favorites on Monday. The odds move.
- Wait for the weather report. Aronimink is near Philly. If it rains, the course plays "long," which favors the big hitters like Bryson and Rory. If it's dry and windy, the advantage shifts to the ball-strikers like Morikawa.
- Look at "First Round Leader" (FRL) markets. The PGA Championship often sees a random name surge on Thursday morning. If you want to bet on a longshot, do it in the FRL market where you only need 18 holes of brilliance rather than 72.
- Ditch the sentiment. Tiger Woods is usually listed around +500/1. It’s a fun story, but it’s a donation to the sportsbook. Use that $10 on a "Top 20" bet for someone like Russell Henley (+300) who is actually in form.
- Target the "Ross Specialists." Look at players who have performed well at East Lake or Pinehurst. There is a specific "Ross DNA" to these courses. If a guy thrives on crowned greens, he’s a target for your betting card.
The PGA Championship is often the most "pure" test of golf among the four majors. It doesn't have the quirky bounces of the British Open or the extreme green speeds of the Masters. It’s just hard, fair, championship golf. If you're betting on the 2026 edition, start by looking at the players who rank high in Bogey Avoidance and Approach from 175-200 yards. Those are the guys who will be standing on the 18th green on Sunday with the Wanamaker Trophy.
The best move right now is to track the "Movement" of the odds over the next month. If you see a guy like Viktor Hovland start to drift from +2500 to +3500 despite decent finishes, that’s where the value is hiding. Keep your eyes on the ball-striking metrics, ignore the social media hype, and remember that at Aronimink, the green is never as large as it looks from the fairway.
Next Steps for You: Check the current "Strokes Gained" leaders on the PGA Tour website specifically for the "Approach" category. Compare the top 10 players in that list to the current odds board for the PGA Championship. If you find a player in the top 10 of ball-striking who is priced longer than +4000, you've found your first value play of the major season.