The latest Goldman Sachs earnings release just hit the tape, and honestly, it’s a lot to process. If you were looking for the "vibe shift" on Wall Street, this is it. For years, we’ve watched David Solomon try to turn this investment banking powerhouse into a consumer-friendly bank for the masses—remember Marcus? Well, those days are officially over.
The numbers are big. Really big. We’re talking about a full-year 2025 net revenue of $58.28 billion. But the real story isn't just the cash; it’s where it’s coming from. Goldman is pivoting back to what it does best: being the smartest, most aggressive dealmaker in the room. They’ve basically ditched the credit card business and are doubling down on the "unwavering focus" of risk management and institutional advisory.
What Really Happened With the Goldman Sachs Earnings Release
So, let’s get into the weeds. On January 15, 2026, the firm reported fourth-quarter net earnings of $4.62 billion. If you’re keeping score at home, that’s a diluted EPS (earnings per share) of $14.01. Analysts were expecting something closer to $11.70, so they absolutely blew the doors off the consensus estimates.
Why the massive beat?
It boils down to a resurgence in M&A (mergers and acquisitions). After a few years of companies being too scared to pull the trigger on big deals because of interest rate jitters, the floodgates are opening. Goldman’s investment banking fees jumped 25% in the fourth quarter alone, hitting $2.58 billion.
The Apple Breakup
One of the most surprising—and honestly, messy—details in the Goldman Sachs earnings release was the finalization of the Apple Card exit. They took a $2.26 billion hit in revenue markdowns just to move those credit card loans to "held for sale" status. They’re effectively paying a premium to get out of the consumer lending game.
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It’s a "rip the Band-Aid off" moment.
By clearing this hurdle, Solomon has essentially admitted that the foray into retail banking was a distraction. The market seems to love the honesty, though. Even with that multi-billion dollar hit, the bank still posted a 16% Return on Equity (ROE) for the quarter. That’s impressive when you consider most banks struggle to hit double digits in a transition year.
The Trading Floor is Still a Gold Mine
You can’t talk about Goldman without talking about the traders. They had a monster year in Equities.
- Full-year Equities revenue: $16.54 billion (a record).
- Fourth quarter Equities: $4.31 billion (up 25% year-over-year).
Basically, the volatility we’ve seen in the markets—driven by AI hype and changing Fed expectations—is exactly what these guys eat for breakfast. Financing revenue also hit records. This means they aren't just betting on stocks; they are lending the "picks and shovels" to other hedge funds and institutions who want to trade.
Prediction Markets: The New Frontier
Something that caught everyone off guard during the earnings call was Solomon’s pivot toward prediction markets. He called the sector "super interesting." He’s been meeting with the heads of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Think about that. The CEO of the world’s most prestigious bank is looking at "event contracts"—basically betting on elections or economic data—as a legitimate institutional derivative tool. It’s a wild shift from the skepticism we saw a year or two ago.
Asset and Wealth Management: The Steady Engine
While the traders get the headlines, the Asset & Wealth Management (AWM) side is where the "durable" money lives. They now have $3.6 trillion in assets under supervision.
Wait. Let that sink in. $3.6 trillion.
They brought in $66 billion in long-term fee-based net inflows in just the last three months of 2025. This is the "flywheel" Solomon keeps talking about. They manage the money for the ultra-wealthy, and then they use their investment bank to help those same people buy companies or take them public.
Why 2026 Looks Different
Goldman is projecting that US GDP will grow by 2.5% this year, which is way more optimistic than the general consensus of 2.1%. They are betting on tax cuts and "AI infrastructure build" to keep the economy humming.
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| Metric | 2025 Full Year | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Net Revenue | $58.28 Billion | $13.45 Billion |
| Net Earnings | $17.18 Billion | $4.62 Billion |
| Diluted EPS | $51.32 | $14.01 |
| ROE | 15.0% | 16.0% |
What Most People Get Wrong About These Results
A lot of folks see the "revenue miss" (the $13.45 billion was slightly lower than some estimates) and think Goldman is struggling. That's a mistake. The "miss" was entirely caused by the Apple Card exit and those markdowns.
If you strip away the consumer banking noise, the core business—Global Banking & Markets—grew 22% year-over-year. The "backlog" of investment banking deals is at its highest level in four years. That means there are a lot of signed deals that haven't even paid out yet. 2026 is looking like it’s going to be a very lucrative year for the partners at 200 West Street.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you’re looking at the Goldman Sachs earnings release to figure out your next move, here’s the reality:
- Watch the M&A Cycle: Goldman is the #1 advisor for a reason. If they say the "sponsor cycle" (private equity firms buying things) is just starting, believe them. This is a leading indicator for the broader market.
- Dividend Growth: They just bumped the quarterly dividend by 12.5% to $4.50 per share. They have $32 billion left in share repurchase capacity. They are literally raining cash on shareholders right now.
- Alternative Investments: Keep an eye on their "Alternatives" fundraising. They raised $115 billion last year for things like private credit and real estate. As interest rates stabilize, these private markets are going to be the main growth driver for the bank's margins.
- Efficiency over Headcount: Solomon is leaning hard into AI to "free up capacity." Don't expect a hiring spree. Expect more profit per employee.
The big takeaway? Goldman Sachs is done trying to be everything to everyone. They’ve returned to their roots as a high-margin, institutional-focused machine. The "Consumer" experiment is over, and the "Flywheel" of investment banking and wealth management is spinning faster than it has in years.
To stay ahead of the next move, keep a close watch on the 13F filings from major hedge funds over the next few weeks to see if they are piling into GS after this beat. You should also monitor the ICE BofA High Yield Index; if credit spreads stay low, the M&A boom Goldman is predicting will likely materialize in full force by mid-year.