Politics in Virginia is basically a contact sport. If you’ve been watching the Richmond scene lately, you know things just got very real. As 2025 wrapped up and we hit the start of 2026, the Glenn Youngkin approval rating 2025 became one of the most confusing puzzles in modern state politics. He’s walking out of the Executive Mansion with numbers that most governors would kill for, yet his hand-picked successor, Winsome Earle-Sears, just got absolutely hammered at the polls by Abigail Spanberger.
It’s weird, right? You’d think a popular governor could carry his party across the finish line.
Honestly, the data tells a story of a guy who managed to stay personally liked while his party’s national brand became toxic to the very suburbs that put him in office. By October 2025, Emerson College had Youngkin sitting at a 46% approval rating, with 41% disapproving. That’s a "net positive" in a state that has been trending deep blue for a decade. Even the Roanoke College poll from late 2025 showed him holding steady at 50% approval. People liked Glenn the guy, the basketball-playing suburban dad in a fleece vest. They just weren't sold on the rest of the package.
The Rollercoaster of the Glenn Youngkin Approval Rating 2025
Early on in 2025, Youngkin was riding high. In February, Roanoke College had him at 53% approval. He was talking about cutting the "car tax"—the personal property tax that every Virginian loathes—and that resonated. Everyone hates that tax. It’s the one thing that unites a NoVa tech worker and a Southwest Virginia farmer.
But then summer hit.
The L. Douglas Wilder School at VCU dropped a poll in July showing a slip to 49%. It wasn't a total collapse, but the "vibes" were shifting. Independents, the group that basically decides every election in the Commonwealth, started to sour. By July, 51% of independents disapproved of his performance.
Why?
It wasn't just one thing. It was a messy cocktail of high grocery prices, the looming shadow of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, and a massive backlash against federal layoffs. When the Trump administration and Elon Musk introduced the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in early 2025, it sent shockwaves through Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. We’re talking about 140,000 federal workers living in the state. Youngkin was stuck in a hard spot: support the leader of his party or defend the jobs of his constituents.
He tried to do both. It didn't really work.
Why the High Numbers Didn't Help Winsome Earle-Sears
Here is the kicker. Usually, if a governor is at 50% approval, their Lieutenant Governor is a shoe-in. Not this time. While the glenn youngkin approval rating 2025 stayed afloat, Winsome Earle-Sears was underwater.
By the time the November 2025 election rolled around, Spanberger beat Earle-Sears by over 15 points. That is a landslide. It's the biggest margin in a Virginia governor's race since 2009.
- Voters separated the man from the party. People approved of Youngkin's handling of the budget but feared the social agenda Earle-Sears leaned into.
- The "DOGE" Effect. The federal government shutdown in October 2025 was a disaster for Virginia Republicans. Voters blamed the GOP for the chaos.
- Education vs. Abortion. In 2021, Youngkin won on "parental rights." In 2025, Spanberger won on reproductive rights and the cost of living. The script flipped.
It’s kinda fascinating. You could find a voter in Henrico County who would tell a pollster, "Yeah, I think Youngkin has done a decent job with the economy," and then immediately cast a ballot for every Democrat on the ticket. The Emerson poll in October actually proved this: 11% of people who approved of Youngkin still planned to vote for Spanberger.
The Budget Legacy and the Final Months
In December 2025, Youngkin did what outgoing governors do—he dropped a massive budget proposal for the 2026-2028 biennium. He doubled down on tax cuts and data center incentives. He’s always been the "business guy," and he leaned into that until the very last minute.
Data centers have been a huge point of contention. Youngkin pushed hard for them, even vetoing bills that would have forced operators to do more environmental impact studies. He saw them as a cash cow for the state treasury. Some voters loved the revenue; others hated the giant "gray boxes" popping up in their backyards. This nuance is why his disapproval rating never really dropped below 40%.
He leaves office on January 17, 2026.
Looking back at the glenn youngkin approval rating 2025, it’s clear he was a bit of an outlier. He managed to navigate a divided legislature and a radically shifting national political climate without ever becoming truly unpopular. He stayed "civil" in a way that kept the suburbs from hating him, even if they weren't ready to buy what the rest of the GOP was selling.
What We Can Learn From the 2025 Numbers
If you're looking for the "so what" here, it's that Virginia is no longer a swing state—it's a blue state that occasionally likes a Republican manager. Youngkin was that manager. But the moment the conversation shifted from "how do we run the state" to "national partisan warfare," his popularity couldn't protect his party.
The final Roanoke poll in November 2025 had him at 50% favorable and 40% unfavorable. That is a solid legacy. But as Abigail Spanberger prepares to take the oath as the first female governor in Virginia history, those numbers are just a footnote.
Next Steps for Following Virginia Politics:
- Watch the 2026 General Assembly session to see how much of Youngkin’s final budget Spanberger and the Democratic-controlled legislature actually keep.
- Monitor the "car tax" debate; although Youngkin couldn't kill it, the 76% support for its elimination means it’s not going away as a campaign issue.
- Keep an eye on federal employment data in Northern Virginia to see if the 2025 layoffs continue to drive the state's political leanings heading into the 2026 midterms.