When the clocks struck 6:00 PM in Berlin on February 23, 2025, the air in the headquarters of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) didn't just feel heavy—it felt like the floor had dropped out. Germany elections exit polls flashed across the TV screens of ARD and ZDF, and the numbers were brutal. Olaf Scholz, the man who had steered the country through a literal energy war, was looking at 16.4%.
That’s the worst result for the SPD since 1887. Think about that for a second.
Across town, Friedrich Merz was already being hailed as the next Chancellor. His CDU/CSU Union bloc had clawed back to 28.5%. It wasn't exactly a landslide of the Merkel era, but in a fractured Germany, it was enough. But honestly? The real story wasn't the win. It was the "earthquake" happening just below the surface.
The Night the Map Turned Blue
The most jarring part of the 2025 Germany elections exit polls wasn't the conservative victory. It was the AfD. The far-right Alternative for Germany didn't just grow; they basically exploded, landing at 20.8%. They effectively doubled their 2021 result.
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If you looked at the map that night, the East was a sea of blue. The AfD became the strongest force in all five eastern German states. For the first time since World War II, a party labeled as "right-wing extremist" by state intelligence agencies was the second-most powerful political force in the country.
People were stunned.
Alice Weidel, the AfD's co-leader, was on TikTok and TV simultaneously, claiming a "historic mandate." Meanwhile, the Free Democrats (FDP)—the guys who actually triggered this snap election by leaving the coalition in November 2024—were wiped off the map. They hit 4.3%. That’s below the 5% threshold needed to even sit in the Bundestag. They went from being kingmakers to being unemployed overnight.
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Why the Exit Polls Were So Different This Time
Usually, German exit polls are boringly accurate. They might shift by 0.5% during the night. But this time, the "late swing" was real.
- The Left Party Resurrection: At 6:01 PM, everyone thought "Die Linke" was dead. They were polling at 3-4% for months. Then, the exit polls showed them at 8.5-9%. They eventually settled at 8.8%.
- The BSW Heartbreak: Sahra Wagenknecht’s new alliance (BSW) was the media darling of 2024. They were supposed to steal the AfD's lunch. Instead, they hit 4.98%. In German politics, 4.98% is the cruelest number. It means zero seats.
- The Youth Shift: For years, we assumed young people only cared about the Greens. The exit polls proved that wrong. A massive chunk of voters under 30 ditched Robert Habeck’s Greens (who fell to 11.6%) for either the AfD or the rejuvenated Left Party.
Friedrich Merz knew he’d won, but he looked terrified during his victory speech. He kept talking about "responsibility" and "hard tasks." He knew that forming a government with these numbers would be like trying to assemble a puzzle where the pieces are actively trying to set each other on fire.
The "Firewall" and the Grand Coalition Reality
Every expert on the news that night was talking about the Brandmauer—the firewall. This is the pact where all mainstream parties agree: no deals with the AfD. Period.
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Because Merz ruled out the AfD, and a "Jamaica" coalition (CDU + Greens + FDP) was impossible since the FDP didn't even make it into parliament, there was only one path left. The "Grand Coalition."
It’s the political equivalent of an old married couple who can’t stand each other but stays together because the mortgage is too high. The CDU/CSU and the SPD had to team up. Together, they held 328 of the 630 seats. It’s a majority, sure, but it’s a shaky one.
Actionable Insights: What This Means for 2026 and Beyond
If you’re watching Germany now, months after Merz took over as Chancellor in May 2025, the exit polls from that February night are still the roadmap.
- Watch the 2026 Regional Elections: States like Saxony-Anhalt are heading to the polls soon. The AfD is currently leading those polls by wide margins. The federal "firewall" is being tested at the local level every single day.
- Economic Pivot: Merz is a fiscal hawk. Expect tougher talk on migration and a "debt brake" that stays firmly engaged, despite the Greens and SPD crying for more infrastructure spending.
- Climate Backtrack: The exit polls showed that the "Green transition" was a huge vote-loser in rural areas. The 100-billion-euro climate fund is being protected, but the aggressive phase-outs are being quietly slowed down to stop the AfD's growth.
The 2025 election proved that Germany’s old stability is gone. The era of two big parties running the show is dead. Now, it’s a game of fragmentation.
To stay ahead of the next shift, keep a close eye on the "Sonntagsfrage" (Sunday Question) polls released every week by firms like Infratest dimap or Forsa. They are currently showing a dead heat between the Union and the AfD in several regions. If the Grand Coalition can't fix the economy by the 2026 state votes, the exit polls of the future might look even more radical than the ones we saw in February 2025.