Trading the Georgian Lari (GEL) against the US Dollar (USD) isn't like betting on the Euro or the Yen. Honestly, it's a bit of a wild ride. If you're looking at Georgian Lari to USD today, you're seeing a currency that has become a surprising beacon of resilience in a region that, frankly, has been through the ringer lately.
Right now, as of mid-January 2026, the Lari is holding its own at approximately 0.37 USD (or roughly 2.69 GEL to 1 USD). But don't let that steady number fool you into thinking it's boring.
The Lari's Secret Strength
Most people expect small emerging market currencies to crumble when geopolitical tension spikes. Georgia should have been the poster child for this. Instead, the Lari has spent the last two years defying the gravity of its neighborhood.
Why? Because the money keeps flowing in.
Remittances—the cash Georgians working abroad send back home—hit nearly 15% of the country’s GDP recently. That is a massive cushion. When you combine that with a tourism sector that Galt & Taggart analysts predict will bring in $4.9 billion this year, you get a currency that has a lot of "buy" pressure keeping it afloat.
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What the National Bank is Doing
The National Bank of Georgia (NBG) isn't playing games. They’ve kept the refinancing rate pinned at 8.0% through the end of 2025. It’s a "moderately tight" stance. Basically, they are keeping borrowing expensive to make sure inflation doesn't run away.
Lasha Kavtaradze, a lead economist at Galt & Taggart, recently pointed out that we might finally see a rate cut—maybe down to 7.5%—in the second half of 2026. But that only happens if inflation behaves.
Currently, inflation is hovering around 3.5% to 4.8%, depending on which month’s grocery bill you’re looking at. Food prices have been the main culprit. If you've been to a market in Tbilisi lately, you know the struggle is real.
Why Georgian Lari to USD Fluctuates So Much
Exchange rates are basically a giant popularity contest. For the Lari, the judges are usually foreign investors and tourists.
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When the NBG keeps interest rates at 8%, it makes holding Lari attractive for investors looking for yield. Compare that to the US Federal Reserve, which is expected to ease its own rates toward 3.25% in early 2026. This "interest rate gap" is a huge reason why the Georgian Lari to USD rate hasn't crashed.
- Tourism Inflows: More Russians, Europeans, and Gulf travelers means more people selling USD to buy GEL.
- The "Middleman" Effect: Georgia has become a transit hub for goods. This brings in foreign currency, even if some of that "intermediary" magic is starting to fade as trade routes stabilize.
- Political Noise: This is the big one. Any time there's a protest in Rustaveli or a headline about regional sanctions, the Lari twitches.
The 2026 Outlook: Growth Amid the Chaos
The United Nations recently dropped their World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 report. They are actually quite bullish on Georgia, projecting 5.4% growth. That’s insane when you realize Russia is projected at a measly 1% and Azerbaijan at 2.7%.
Georgia is outperforming its neighbors by a wide margin.
However, there’s a catch. The IMF and the World Bank are whispering about "structural risks." The country is small. It’s sensitive. If the US decides to get aggressive with new global tariffs—as some 2026 scenarios suggest—supply chains get messy. When supply chains get messy, the USD usually gets stronger as a "safe haven," which puts pressure on the Lari.
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How to Handle Your Money
If you’re an expat living in Tbilisi or a business owner dealing in imports, you've got to be smart about the Georgian Lari to USD spread.
Don't just look at the mid-market rate on Google. If you go to a big bank like TBC or Bank of Georgia, you're going to lose 1-2% on the spread. The "currency booths" (the little windows in the street) often have better rates, but even they are jittery during high-volatility days.
Actionable Insights for 2026:
- Monitor the NBG Meetings: The next one is February 11, 2026. If they signal a rate cut earlier than expected, expect the Lari to weaken slightly against the USD.
- Watch Food Inflation: Since the NBG is obsessed with its 3% inflation target, high food prices mean high interest rates, which supports a strong Lari.
- Hedge Your Big Purchases: If you’re buying property in Batumi or Tbilisi, most prices are quoted in USD but paid in GEL. A 2% swing in the exchange rate can cost you thousands of dollars.
- Diversify Holdings: If you earn in Lari, keep a "peace of mind" fund in USD. The Lari is strong now, but it’s still an emerging market currency. Things change fast.
The Lari has proven it’s not the fragile currency it used to be. It’s backed by a central bank that is willing to be the "adult in the room" and an economy that is growing faster than almost anyone else in the Caucasus.
Stay updated on the official NBG reports. They release quarterly Monetary Policy Reports that give the most honest look at where the currency is headed. For now, the Lari is holding its ground, but in the world of forex, "now" is the only thing you can truly count on.
Next Steps for Your Finances:
Check the current NBG daily average rate before making any large transfers today. If you are planning a trip or a business investment, monitor the February 11th Monetary Policy Committee decision, as any shift in the 8% refinancing rate will immediately move the market. Ensure you use local exchange houses for better spreads than international bank transfers when converting larger sums of USD to GEL.