History is rarely clean. We want it to be a straight line—a single villain, a clear motive, and a definitive end. But Dealey Plaza on November 22, 1963, was anything but clean. For decades, the narrative has been Lee Harvey Oswald in the Texas School Book Depository. Yet, there’s this nagging, controversial theory that just won’t die. It’s the idea of the JFK Secret Service shot, specifically the claim that an agent named George Hickey accidentally fired the fatal round.
It sounds like a movie plot. Or a bad joke. But when you dig into the ballistics and the witness testimony, you start to see why some very serious people—ballistics experts and career investigators—actually buy into it. It’s not necessarily about a "cover-up" in the way we usually think of them. It’s about human error in a moment of sheer, unadulterated chaos.
The Man in the Follow-up Car
George Hickey wasn't supposed to be the lead on anything that day. He was a Secret Service agent riding in the "Queen Mary," the black Cadillac convertible directly behind the presidential limousine. When the first shots rang out, the world blurred. In the scramble to react, Hickey reached for the AR-15 rifle—a relatively new piece of hardware for the detail at the time.
The theory, championed most famously by ballistics expert Howard Donahue and later detailed in the book Mortal Error by Bonar Menninger, suggests that as the Cadillac braked or accelerated suddenly, Hickey lost his balance. In that split second of instability, his finger reportedly tightened on the trigger. The weapon discharged.
Did he mean to do it? Absolutely not. If this happened, it was a tragic, freak accident. But the implications of a Secret Service agent accidentally killing the man he was sworn to protect are so heavy that it’s easy to see why the government would want that specific detail buried under a mountain of Oswald-centric evidence.
Why the Ballistics Look Different
If you look at the medical reports, things get weird. Donahue’s primary argument for the JFK Secret Service shot comes down to the trajectory and the nature of the head wound. Oswald was supposedly using a 6.5mm Mannlicher-Carcano. That’s a bolt-action rifle with full metal jacketed ammunition. Those bullets are designed to go through things. They drill.
🔗 Read more: Nate Silver Trump Approval Rating: Why the 2026 Numbers Look So Different
But the wound that killed Kennedy? It was explosive.
The 5.56mm rounds used in the AR-15 are different. They are high-velocity and prone to "fragmenting" upon impact. When they hit bone at that speed, they essentially disintegrate, creating a massive cavity and a "snowstorm" of lead fragments. This is exactly what the X-rays of Kennedy’s skull showed. A 6.5mm round from the Depository likely wouldn't have shattered into dozens of tiny pieces like that. It would have left a cleaner exit or stayed relatively intact.
Then there’s the smell. Multiple witnesses in Dealey Plaza reported smelling gunpowder at street level. This is a huge detail. If Oswald was the only shooter, perched six floors up in a building, the smell of cordite wouldn't have drifted down to the street against the wind so quickly. But if a rifle was fired from the back of an open Cadillac right in the middle of the motorcade? You’d smell it instantly.
The Witness Who Saw the Rifle
S.M. Holland was a signal supervisor for the Union Terminal Railroad. He was standing on top of the Triple Underpass, looking right down the throat of the motorcade. He had a bird's-eye view. Holland told investigators he saw an agent in the follow-up car stand up and brandish a weapon.
"He was standing up," Holland later recalled. Other witnesses mentioned seeing an agent with a "machine gun." Now, the Secret Service admits Hickey picked up the AR-15. That’s a matter of record. They just claim he never fired it.
💡 You might also like: Weather Forecast Lockport NY: Why Today’s Snow Isn’t Just Hype
But the timing is tight. Too tight.
Think about the physical mechanics. The car jerks. You’re holding a rifle you aren’t intimately familiar with. You’re panicked. Your adrenaline is redlining. It’s a recipe for a negligent discharge. Honestly, it’s more plausible than some of the "magic bullet" theories that require physics to take a vacation for the afternoon.
The Silence of the Secret Service
If George Hickey did fire that shot, why didn't anyone say anything? Well, look at the culture of 1963. The Secret Service was reeling. They had failed. If they admitted that not only did they fail to stop an assassin, but they also accidentally finished the job, the agency would have been dismantled overnight.
The Warren Commission was, in many ways, an exercise in stabilization. The country was on the brink of a nervous breakdown. They needed a lone nut. They needed Oswald. They didn't need a "oops, my gun went off" explanation that would make the U.S. government look incompetent on a global scale.
Hickey himself later sued over these claims. He denied it until his death. Most of his colleagues supported him, stating they never heard a shot from within the car. But in the roar of the crowd and the echoes of the buildings, would they even know where the sound came from? Sound in Dealey Plaza is notoriously deceptive. It bounces. It tricks the ear.
📖 Related: Economics Related News Articles: What the 2026 Headlines Actually Mean for Your Wallet
The Complexity of "The Second Shooter"
We’ve been conditioned to think a "second shooter" means a man on a grassy knoll with a silencer working for the CIA. We want it to be a conspiracy. But the JFK Secret Service shot theory is actually more grounded. It suggests that the tragedy wasn't just a result of malice, but a byproduct of a chaotic reaction to that malice.
It changes the way you look at the footage. Look at the Zapruder film again. Not at the President, but at the cars. Look at the movement of the agents in the Queen Mary. They are scrambling. They are human beings caught in a nightmare.
What We Can Actually Take Away
We might never get a definitive "yes" or "no" on Hickey. The forensic evidence has been handled by too many hands, and the primary actors are gone. But the theory serves as a vital reminder: the official story is often the "cleanest" story, not necessarily the most accurate one.
If you’re looking to understand the mechanics of what happened that day, stop looking for umbrellas and men in suits. Look at the ballistics of the 5.56mm round versus the 6.5mm. Look at the "snowstorm" effect on the X-rays. That’s where the real questions live.
Practical Steps for the Curious:
- Analyze the Ballistics: Research the difference between "full metal jacket" (Oswald's ammo) and "fragmenting" high-velocity rounds (the AR-15). The entry/exit patterns are the strongest evidence for a different weapon being involved.
- Read "Mortal Error": Regardless of whether you believe it, Bonar Menninger’s breakdown of Howard Donahue’s 25-year investigation is the most meticulous look at the accidental discharge theory.
- Study the Witness Statements: Look for the Dallas Police Department and FBI interviews from people like S.M. Holland and others on the Triple Underpass. Their perspective from the front of the motorcade is often more revealing than those behind it.
- Examine the Smell Testimony: Dig into the Warren Commission’s own documents regarding witnesses who reported the smell of gunpowder at the street level. It’s a physical impossibility if the only shots came from the sixth floor.
The reality of history is often found in the mistakes we try to hide. Whether George Hickey pulled the trigger or not, the sheer volume of circumstantial evidence surrounding the JFK Secret Service shot ensures that this theory won't be fading into the background any time soon. It’s a messy, human explanation for a messy, human tragedy.