Politics is a brutal game of "what have you done for me lately." Gavin Newsom, California’s slick, silver-tongued governor, is finding that out the hard way. For years, he was the heir apparent. The guy with the hair, the height, and the high-octane progressive resume. But lately? The vibe has shifted. If you look at the recent data, Gavin Newsom’s 2028 presidential hopes dwindle in polls as a cocktail of state-level fatigue and rising stars in the Democratic party start to crowd him out.
It’s not just one bad week. It’s a slow-motion slide.
The Numbers Don't Lie (Even if They're Mean)
Just a year ago, Newsom was the undisputed heavyweight champion of Democratic "shadow" campaigning. He was flying to Florida to pick fights with Ron DeSantis and appearing on Sean Hannity’s show just to prove he could take a punch. It worked. His national profile skyrocketed. But as we crawl into early 2026, the honeymoon is over.
Recent polling from Emerson College and the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) paints a messy picture. Nationally, Newsom is still "in the mix," but his lead is evaporating. In some hypothetical 2028 matchups, he’s actually falling behind names like Pete Buttigieg and even Josh Shapiro.
Why? Because being the "Governor of California" is a double-edged sword. To the base, you're a hero. To the rest of the country? You’re the guy in charge of a state with $285 billion in unfunded liabilities and a homelessness crisis that refuses to quit. Honestly, the "California model" is a tough sell in a Rust Belt diner.
The "Two-Faced" Campaign Problem
One of the biggest knocks against Newsom right now is that he’s trying to be everything to everyone. On one hand, he’s the "obnoxious leftwing agitator" (as his critics at the Washington Examiner put it) who calls ICE actions "state-sponsored terrorism." On the other, he’s the sensible, pro-business moderate who vetoes some of the more extreme bills coming out of the California legislature to keep his national appeal alive.
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Voters are starting to notice the gear-shifting. It feels performative.
Take the recent controversy over ICE shootings in Minneapolis. Newsom's press office went nuclear with the rhetoric, but when confronted by conservative pundits like Ben Shapiro, Newsom suddenly sounded like a different person. He backtracked. He moderated. This kind of "two-faced" approach might work in a Sacramento bubble, but on a national stage, it just makes people trust you less. You can't be a firebrand and a peacemaker at the same time without looking like a politician who's just checking boxes.
The Rise of the "Normal" Democrats
Newsom’s biggest threat isn't a Republican. It’s the other Democrats who don’t carry his baggage.
- Pete Buttigieg: He’s consistently polling at the top of the 2028 pack, especially in early states like New Hampshire. He’s seen as the "intellectual" choice—articulate, young, and without the "California liberal" label.
- Josh Shapiro: The Pennsylvania Governor is the darling of the moderates. He wins in a swing state. That’s a massive credential Newsom simply doesn't have.
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC): If the party wants to go full progressive, they’ll go with AOC, not Newsom. She has the authentic grassroots energy that Newsom’s polished PAC-funded machine struggles to replicate.
Basically, Newsom is getting squeezed. The moderates want Shapiro or Buttigieg. The progressives want AOC. Newsom is stuck in the middle, looking like a relic of an older era of Democratic politics.
The Home Front: California's "Fair" Economy
You can’t run for President if your own backyard is on fire. Well, you can, but it’s a lot harder.
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A December 2025 Emerson poll showed that 51% of California voters believe Newsom is directly responsible for the state’s "poor" or "fair" economy. Only 7% rated the state’s economy as "excellent." When your own constituents are grumbling about the price of groceries and gas, it’s hard to convince a voter in Iowa that you have the secret sauce for national prosperity.
Newsom’s approval rating in California has seen some bumps—climbing to 56% recently—but that’s largely because he’s being compared to President Donald Trump, who is historically unpopular in the Golden State. It’s a "lesser of two evils" approval, not a "we want you in the White House" approval. In fact, fewer than a third of California's overall voters think he should even run in 2028. That's gotta hurt.
Is the Money Drying Up?
Not exactly. Newsom is still a "campaign cash cow." His Campaign for Democracy PAC has raised tens of millions. But money doesn't always buy love. In October 2025, he actually told donors to stop giving to a redistricting measure because he had too much cash.
That sounds like a flex, but it also points to a guy who is over-leveraged in the donor class and under-leveraged with actual humans. You can buy all the TV spots you want, but if the "brand" is stale, the ads don't move the needle.
The Road Ahead: Can He Pivot?
Newsom isn't out of the race. Not by a long shot. He’s a survivor. He survived a recall, he survived the French Laundry scandal, and he’ll probably survive these sagging poll numbers. But the path is getting narrower.
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To turn it around, he needs to:
- Fix a high-profile state issue: He needs a "win" on housing or homelessness that people can actually see.
- Pick a lane: Either be the progressive champion or the pragmatic centrist. Doing both is failing.
- Win the midterms: If his PAC helps Democrats take back the House in 2026, he’ll get a lot of credit from the party elites.
Honestly, Newsom is a high-risk, high-reward candidate. He’s the guy you want in a debate, but maybe not the guy you want at your kitchen table. As Gavin Newsom’s 2028 presidential hopes dwindle in polls, the next 12 months will be a desperate scramble to redefine himself before the "California King" becomes a "California Has-Been."
Actionable Insights for Political Observers
If you're tracking the 2028 cycle, don't just look at the top-line numbers. Watch these three things:
- The "Vance vs. Newsom" Hypocrisy Factor: Polls already show Newsom tied with JD Vance in hypothetical matchups. Watch how Newsom handles the "California vs. Ohio" narrative. If he can't win the "vibes" war against Vance, he's done.
- The Governor's Race in 2026: Newsom’s endorsement power is currently split 33/33/35. If his hand-picked successor in California loses or struggles, it’s a direct indictment of his legacy.
- Early State Proposal Results: Keep an eye on the DNC’s decision on which states vote first in 2028. If they move away from diverse states and back toward college-heavy or "elite" states, Newsom gains. If they go with the "Blue Wall" (Michigan/Pennsylvania), he’s in trouble.
The 2028 race is already here. And for Gavin Newsom, the clock is ticking a lot faster than he probably likes.