It is early 2026, and if you live in California, you've probably noticed that Governor Gavin Newsom is acting a lot less like a local administrator and a lot more like a man with a moving van parked outside the White House. Honestly, the signs aren't even subtle anymore. While his term doesn't officially wrap up until January 2027, the groundwork for a national campaign is being laid in real-time.
You've seen the headlines. You've seen the late-night TV appearances. But what is actually happening behind the scenes with Gavin Newsom running for president in 2028?
Back in October 2025, Newsom sat down with CBS News Sunday Morning and basically admitted the obvious. When asked if he’d give "serious thought" to a 2028 bid after the midterms, he said, “Yeah, I’d be lying otherwise.” It was a rare moment of bluntness from a politician who usually sticks to a very polished script. He’s not just thinking about it; he’s building the machinery to make it happen.
The Strategy Behind the 2028 Ambition
Newsom is playing a high-stakes game of "The Best Defense is a Good Offense." He has spent the last year positioning himself as the primary foil to President Donald Trump. While other potential 2028 contenders are staying quiet to avoid early scrutiny, Newsom is leaning into the culture wars. He’s been barnstorming battleground states like South Carolina—which, as of now, is still set to host the first Democratic primary—and launching initiatives aimed at groups the Democrats struggled with in 2024, like young men.
Take the recent "Proposition 50" battle in California. On the surface, it was about redistricting. Newsom pushed a ballot measure to redraw California’s congressional maps to counter Republican gains in other states. It worked. But the real "win" wasn't just the five potential House seats; it was the donor list. Newsom’s "Yes on 50" campaign reportedly attracted over 107,000 individual donors, with more than half of them coming from outside California. That is a ready-made national fundraising army.
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What the Critics (and the Polls) Say
It isn't all smooth sailing, though. If you look at the numbers, California is a bit of a mixed bag for his brand. A CBS poll from late 2025 showed that while 72% of Democrats think he should run, about half of all registered voters nationwide are still skeptical. People point to the "California problems"—the homelessness crisis, high utility bills, and the exodus of residents to states like Texas or Florida.
Critics like Republican State Senator Tony Strickland argue that Newsom wakes up every morning trying to find a new formula for the nomination rather than fixing things at home. Even some Democrats are worried. His latest state budget, released in January 2026, reflects this tension. He’s trying to balance the books without raising broad-based taxes, even as he faces federal funding cuts. It’s a pragmatic pivot to the center that some progressives find frustrating.
Breaking the "California Liberal" Stereotype
Newsom knows the "San Francisco Liberal" label is a political anchor in the Midwest. To fix this, he’s been doing some weird stuff for a blue-state governor. He launched a podcast where he actually talks to conservatives. He’s been leaning into "common sense" rhetoric on public safety and homelessness. He even spent time in 2025 at the UN Climate Conference in Brazil, trying to look "presidential" on the world stage.
He often talks about his own struggles—like being diagnosed with dyslexia at age five and getting a 960 on his SATs. It’s an attempt to humanize a guy who often looks like he walked out of a hair gel commercial. He told CBS, “The idea that a guy... who still struggles to read scripts... that you would even throw that out is, in and of itself, extraordinary.”
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Real Challenges Facing a Newsom Campaign
If Gavin Newsom running for president becomes an official reality after the 2026 midterms, he faces three massive hurdles:
- The Kamala Factor: Former Vice President Kamala Harris has signaled she is "not done." If both Californians run, it splits the home-state donor base and creates a messy primary dynamic.
- The "Blueprint" Problem: Newsom calls California a "policy blueprint" for the nation. His opponents call it a warning. He has to prove that California's high-speed rail cost overruns and housing prices aren't what he wants for the rest of the country.
- The Trump Shadow: Newsom has built his brand on being the "anti-Trump." If the political weather changes or voters get "outrage fatigue," that strategy might lose its punch.
Why 2026 is the Real Turning Point
Everything Newsom does right now is being viewed through the prism of 2028. His 2026-27 budget is arguably his most important piece of campaign literature. He’s trying to shore up the "Rainy Day Fund" and protect school meals while cutting spending in other areas to show he can be fiscally responsible.
He’s also busy making friends. His "Campaign for Democracy" PAC is funneling money into House races across the country for the 2026 midterms. If Democrats take back the House, Newsom will claim the credit. If they don't, he'll at least have a "favor bank" full of grateful politicians in swing states who owe him one.
What to Watch Next
The next few months are going to be telling. Watch his May budget revision—that’s where the real fiscal fights happen. Also, keep an eye on his travel schedule. If he’s in Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina for "non-political" reasons, you know exactly what’s happening.
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Actionable Insights for Following the 2028 Race:
- Monitor Small-Dollar Donations: Follow the FEC filings for Newsom’s "Campaign for Democracy." High volumes of out-of-state, small-dollar donors are the best indicator of national viability.
- Watch the "West Coast Health Alliance": This is Newsom’s attempt to lead a bloc of states against federal policy. It’s a "shadow presidency" move that builds his executive credentials.
- Track the Polling Shifts: Look for "favorability" ratings in the Rust Belt (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin). If those start to climb, his "California Liberal" baggage is officially being unpacked.
Newsom says "fate will determine" if he runs. But looking at the $114 million raised for his recent ballot measures and his constant presence on the national stage, it looks like he’s trying to give fate a very firm nudge in the right direction.
To stay updated on the specifics of his platform as he transitions out of the governor's mansion, you should follow the official California Budget releases and the "Campaign for Democracy" updates, as these contain the actual policy shifts he'll use on the stump.