Honestly, the worst-kept secret in American politics isn't a secret at all. If you’ve been watching Sacramento lately, you’ve seen it. The slick social media videos, the national podcast tours, the sudden "fiscal discipline" in the state budget—it’s all pointing toward one thing. Gavin Newsom running for president 2028 isn't just a rumor anymore; it's a campaign currently in its "soft launch" phase.
Most people think he’s still playing coy. He’s not. In late 2025, Newsom sat down with CBS News and basically admitted it. When asked if he’d give a White House bid serious thought after the 2026 midterms, he said, "I'd be lying otherwise." That’s a massive shift from his old "sub-zero interest" routine. He’s done pretending.
But here is the thing: running from California is a double-edged sword that’s more like a chainsaw with no handle. You've got the most beautiful backdrop in the world, but you're also carrying the baggage of every single problem in the Golden State.
The "Shadow Campaign" is already in full swing
If you want to know if someone is running for president, don't look at their mouth—look at their bank account. Newsom has been busy. His leadership PAC has already banked nearly $4 million. He’s not just saving that for a rainy day in Marin County. He’s using it to buy friends.
In the political world, we call this "investing." By sending checks to Democrats in swing states during the 2026 midterms, Newsom is making sure that when he calls a state party chair in Pennsylvania or Michigan two years from now, they actually pick up the phone. It's smart. It's also exactly what J.B. Pritzker and Kamala Harris are doing.
The competition is already getting crowded.
- Kamala Harris: She’s launched her "Fight for the People" super PAC.
- J.B. Pritzker: The Illinois Governor has the kind of personal wealth that makes even Newsom’s fundraising look like a lemonade stand.
- Josh Shapiro: The Pennsylvania Governor who has that "Midwest nice" appeal Newsom desperately lacks.
Newsom knows he has a "brand" problem. To a lot of the country, he’s the "slick hair, blue state liberal" archetype. That plays great in San Francisco, but does it work in a diner in Des Moines? Probably not. That’s why we’re seeing this weird, two-faced strategy lately. One minute he’s an "obnoxious left-wing agitator" on social media to fire up the base, and the next he’s on a podcast with Ben Shapiro trying to sound like the only reasonable adult in the room.
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The budget trap and the shift to the right
You can tell a lot about a man's ambitions by how he spends (or doesn't spend) money. Newsom’s 2026-27 budget proposal is a fascinating piece of political theater. California is staring down a massive deficit—somewhere between $18 billion and $35 billion depending on who you ask.
Instead of going full "tax the rich," which is what the progressive caucus in Sacramento wants, Newsom is pushing back. He’s rejected broad tax hikes. He’s even cutting back on social welfare and health care services.
Why? Because he doesn't want "Tax-and-Spend Liberal" attached to his name in a national TV ad.
He’s trying to pivot. He wants to walk into 2028 being able to say he balanced the budget of the world’s fifth-largest economy without raising taxes on the middle class. It’s a risky bet. If he cuts too much, he loses the progressive base that he needs to win a primary. If he doesn't cut enough, the GOP will use California’s "fiscal doom" as a cudgel against him in the general.
The "California Problem" is real
Let’s be real for a second. If you’re Gavin Newsom, your biggest opponent isn't a Republican—it's the 101 freeway at 5:00 PM. It’s the cost of a one-bedroom apartment in San Jose.
Critics are already sharpening their knives. They point to:
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- Homelessness: Despite spending over $24 billion, the problem is still the first thing people see when they visit.
- The Housing Crisis: He promised 3.5 million new units. We aren't even close.
- High Taxes: Even if he doesn't raise them further, California's cost of living is a tough sell to a family in Ohio.
Newsom's team is trying to get ahead of this. Lately, he’s been touting a 9% drop in unsheltered homelessness and the success of state-produced $11 insulin. He’s trying to build a "California as a Model" narrative. He wants to prove that "California is the antidote to the Trump agenda."
Why 2028 is the make-or-break year
Newsom is termed out in January 2027. That’s the "danger zone" for politicians. Once you’re out of office, you lose the "free" media coverage that comes with being Governor. You lose the ability to sign bills that make headlines. You basically become a private citizen with a very expensive haircut.
That’s why he has to move now.
He’s already visiting battleground states. He was in South Carolina—the state that currently holds the first Democratic primary—back in July. He’s building the infrastructure. He’s even got a podcast, This Is Gavin Newsom, where he chats with everyone from tech moguls to Dr. Phil. It’s all about maintaining "relevance."
How to track the Newsom 2028 trajectory
If you’re trying to figure out if he’s actually going to pull the trigger, stop listening to the official denials. Instead, keep an eye on these three specific indicators over the next year:
1. The 2026 Midterm Spend
Watch where his PAC money goes. If he’s spending heavily on digital ads for candidates in Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, he’s building a national data set of voters. That data is gold for a presidential run.
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2. The "May Revision" of the Budget
This is where the rubber meets the road. In May 2026, he has to finalize the state budget. If he holds the line against the billionaire tax and keeps the "fiscal hawk" persona, he’s definitely running. He’s choosing the general election moderate lane over the primary progressive lane.
3. The Foreign Policy Pivot
Governors usually don't talk about Israel, China, or Ukraine. When Newsom starts making more international trips or giving speeches on global trade, it’s because he’s trying to check the "Commander in Chief" box on his resume.
Newsom is a retail politician who loves the fight. He’s been parrying with the Trump administration over everything from redistricting (look up Proposition 50) to offshore drilling. He clearly enjoys being the face of the "Resistance."
But the path to 2028 is narrow. He has to survive a primary against a former Vice President and a crop of popular Midwestern governors, all while keeping a crumbling California budget from exploding in his face. It’s the ultimate high-wire act.
To stay ahead of the curve on the 2028 race, you should start by looking at the OpenSecrets filings for Newsom’s "Campaign for Democracy" PAC to see which state parties he’s currently funding. Additionally, monitor the California Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) reports through mid-2026; if the deficit continues to swell despite his cuts, his "fiscal manager" narrative will be his first casualty on the campaign trail.