It is a weird time to be Gavin Newsom. If you look at the headlines, you’d think he’s either the savior of the resistance or a guy packing his bags for a permanent vacation from public life. Honestly, the reality is somewhere in the middle. His second term is winding down, the 2026 race to replace him is already getting messy, and his approval ratings are doing this strange dance between "solidly popular" and "barely hanging on."
Gavin Newsom poll numbers aren't just a scoreboard for the Governor; they're a mirror for how frustrated—or hopeful—Californians feel as 2026 approaches.
The Current Temperature: Approval vs. Reality
Right now, if you ask the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), Newsom is sitting at roughly 54% to 56% approval among likely voters. That’s not bad for a lame-duck governor. In fact, it’s a decent jump from where he was a year ago when his numbers were underwater.
But here’s the kicker: people are still miserable about the state of the state.
A massive 54% of Californians think the state is heading in the "wrong direction." That is a huge disconnect. How do you like the guy in charge but hate the way things are going? It’s basically political Stockholm Syndrome, or maybe just a lack of better options.
- Democrats: Still love him (around 79% approval).
- Republicans: Not so much (roughly 9% approval).
- Independents: The "meh" group (stuck around 43%).
The "wrong direction" sentiment is mostly fueled by the economy and the cost of living. Even though Newsom’s personal brand is holding up, 69% of people expect "bad times" financially over the next year. You've got a governor with a positive rating in a state where seven out of ten people think the economy is a dumpster fire.
Why the Numbers Are Moving Right Now
Newsom just dropped his 2026-27 budget proposal. It’s a $248.3 billion plan that manages to keep the lights on without massive cuts, which is a minor miracle given the federal environment.
The Federal Factor
The relationship with the Trump administration is the biggest variable in these polls. When Newsom fights with D.C., his numbers in the Bay Area and L.A. go up. People here like a fighter. However, the Emerson College polling shows that 51% of voters still blame Newsom—not the President—for the current state of California's economy.
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The 2026 Shadow
Because Newsom can't run again, he’s becoming a bit of a "lame duck" in the eyes of the public. Voters are starting to look past him. Recent polls show that 45% of people want the next governor to keep Newsom’s policies, but the other 55% are ready for something different. This "Newsom Fatigue" is a real thing. It’s why his endorsement for the 2026 race is a total wash—33% say it helps, 33% say it hurts, and the rest don't care.
The 2028 Presidential Buzz
You can't talk about his poll numbers without mentioning the White House. Nationally, Newsom is surprisingly competitive. In a hypothetical 2028 matchup, he’s often tied with JD Vance at around 44% each.
Within the Democratic primary for 2028, he’s currently leading the pack with about 36% support, beating out names like Pete Buttigieg and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. His gains are coming from an unlikely place: young voters (under 30) and older voters (over 70). It seems the "flashy" California brand plays better in Iowa than it sometimes does in Fresno.
What This Means for Your Wallet
If you’re a Californian, these numbers matter because they dictate how much "political capital" Newsom has to fix the big stuff before he leaves.
- Housing: 25% of voters say this is the biggest issue. If his polls stay high, he can push more housing mandates.
- The Budget: With a $23 billion "rainy day" fund projected, Newsom is trying to buy stability.
- Taxes: Voters are split. They want services but hate the cost.
Actionable Insights for Following the Polls
If you want to keep an eye on where this goes next, don't just look at the top-line approval number. Watch the Independent (NPP) voters. They are the true "vibe check" for California. If their approval of Newsom drops below 40%, expect him to move toward the center on issues like crime and homelessness to protect his legacy.
Also, keep an eye on the PPIC and Berkeley IGS releases. They are the gold standard for state-level data. National polls like Emerson or YouGov are great for "Presidential Newsom" talk, but if you want to know if he’s actually fixing the 405 or the insurance crisis, stick to the local surveys.
Check the upcoming March primary data for the 2026 governor's race. Even though Newsom isn't on the ballot, the performance of "Newsom-aligned" candidates like Eleni Kounalakis versus "outsider" candidates like Chad Bianco will tell you exactly how much weight the Governor's brand still carries.