The smoke hasn't even cleared from the last election cycle, but the political machine is already grinding toward the next one. Gavin Newsom is officially done playing coy. For a long time, the California Governor would dodge the "White House" question with a practiced, polished smile. Not anymore.
During a sit-down with CBS News late last year, Newsom basically admitted that he’d be lying if he said he wasn't thinking about it. He told Robert Costa that he would give Gavin Newsom considering 2028 presidential run after midterms serious thought once the 2026 dust settles. It’s a huge shift.
Honestly, it makes sense. He’s term-limited. He’s out of a job in January 2027. If you’re one of the most recognizable Democrats in the country and you’re about to be unemployed, what else are you going to do?
The 2026 Proving Ground
Before any balloons drop in 2028, Newsom has to survive 2026. He is treating the upcoming midterms like a personal audition. His strategy isn't just about making speeches; it’s about power and maps.
He put a massive amount of political capital into Proposition 50 in California. If you haven't been following the local drama, it was a move to redraw congressional districts to favor Democrats. He called it a "response" to Republican redistricting in states like Texas. It was a "fight fire with fire" moment that most experts, like Jeff Cummins, saw as a way for Newsom to claim he single-handedly helped Democrats retake the House.
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Just this week, a federal three-judge panel in Los Angeles gave him a massive win. They ruled that California can use those new maps for the 2026 midterms. This puts Newsom in a position to be the party's hero. If Democrats flip those five seats he targeted, he’s not just a governor; he’s the architect of a national comeback.
Why 2028 Feels Different This Time
Look, everyone knew Newsom wanted the job. But the "how" and "when" were always messy. With Donald Trump back in the White House, Newsom has found his groove as the "Anti-Trump."
He’s been trolling the President on X (formerly Twitter) constantly. He’s positioning California as a literal nation-state that acts as a buffer against federal policies. It’s a high-stakes game.
The Hurdles He Can't Ignore
- The "California Problem": Critics love to point at San Francisco's streets or the state's massive budget deficit. Newsom is currently slashing spending on social services and health care to try and balance the 2026-27 budget. That’s going to hurt him with the progressive wing.
- Kamala Harris: The former Vice President isn't going away. She’s already touring swing states for her new book. If both of them run, it’s a California civil war for the same donors and the same base.
- The SAT Score: In a weirdly vulnerable moment, Newsom often brings up his dyslexia and his 960 SAT score. He uses it to sound relatable—the kid from the back of the classroom who made it. Whether that "everyman" vibe sticks to a guy who looks like a movie star remains to be seen.
The Money and the Memoir
You know someone is running for President when they suddenly have a lot to say about their childhood. Newsom is releasing a memoir in February 2026. These books are rarely about literature; they are about "owning the narrative" before the opposition research teams do it for you.
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Money is also moving fast. Newsom has already banked nearly $4 million in his leadership PAC. He’s using that cash to help other Democrats in the midterms. It’s a "shadow campaign" tactic. You give a candidate in a swing district $10,000 now, and you get their endorsement in 2028. It’s classic politics.
He was recently spotted in Los Angeles at the DNC winter meeting, rubbing shoulders with J.B. Pritzker and Josh Shapiro. These guys are all "friends," but they are also shark-circling the same waters.
What Most People Get Wrong
People think Newsom's biggest threat is a Republican. It’s actually his own state's math.
His 2026 budget proposal is a minefield. He’s trying to balance it without raising taxes, which is almost impossible given the current deficit. If the California economy wobbles while he’s on the campaign trail in Iowa or South Carolina, the "California is a failed state" ads will write themselves.
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He’s trying to be a cultural warrior and a fiscal conservative at the same time. It’s a tightrope walk.
Your Move: Tracking the 2028 Trail
If you're trying to figure out if the Gavin Newsom considering 2028 presidential run after midterms talk is real, watch these three things:
- The May Budget Revision: If he can’t close the deficit without a massive tax hike, his "California Success Story" narrative takes a hit.
- The 2026 House Results: If those five redrawn California seats go Democratic, expect a formal announcement shortly after his term ends in early 2027.
- South Carolina Visits: He’s already been there. If he goes back again this year, he’s not just "helping the party"—he’s building a ground game.
The 2028 race is already here. It’s just happening in the shadows of the midterms.
Next Steps for You: - Monitor the 2026 midterm results in California's newly drawn 13th, 22nd, and 41st districts; these are the seats Newsom's "Prop 50" strategy needs to flip to secure his national "winner" status.
- Watch for Newsom’s book tour schedule in February 2026; if he spends more time in Philadelphia and Atlanta than in Sacramento, the campaign is officially "on" in all but name.