Politics is a fickle business. One week you’re the golden child of the West Coast, and the next, you’re dodging questions about a $30 billion deficit or why the streets of San Francisco look the way they do. But if you look at the Gavin Newsom approval rating as we kick off 2026, you'll see something that feels almost like a glitch in the Matrix.
People are actually sticking with him.
Honestly, it doesn’t always make sense on paper. We’re talking about a guy who has been the punching bag for national conservative media for years. Yet, the latest data from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) shows that 54% of California adults and 56% of likely voters still approve of the job he’s doing.
That is a 10-point jump from where he was just six months ago.
The Weird Reality of the Gavin Newsom Approval Rating
So, why the sudden love? Or maybe it isn't "love" so much as a "well, it could be worse" sentiment.
Basically, the governor has benefited from a perfect storm of local wins and a massive contrast with what’s happening in D.C. While the federal government has been hacking away at healthcare and food assistance through bills like H.R. 1, Newsom has positioned himself as the ultimate "Resistance" leader. It’s a role he plays well. He leans into the slick, polished, "California is the future" persona that either makes you cheer or roll your eyes into the back of your head.
There is no middle ground with this guy.
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You’ve got to look at the demographics to see the real story. Among Democrats, his support is a staggering 79%. That’s a fortress. Even with Independents, he’s sitting at about 43%, which isn't great, but it’s enough to keep him afloat in a state where Republicans only make up about a quarter of the registered voters. Speaking of Republicans, they basically despise him—only 9% approve.
It’s a polarized state.
Why the Numbers Are Moving Now
The timing is everything. Just a few weeks ago, Newsom announced the largest drop in unsheltered homelessness in 15 years. Now, whether those numbers are perfectly accurate or just some clever accounting is a debate for another day, but the headline worked. People are desperate for any sign of progress on the homelessness crisis.
- The Budget Surprise: Remember when everyone was screaming about a massive deficit? Newsom’s 2026-27 budget proposal projected a $2.9 billion deficit, which, for California, is basically pocket change.
- The Federal Contrast: With President Trump back in office and pushing mass deportations (which 60% of Californians oppose), Newsom’s "California Way" feels like a safe harbor for the majority of the state's residents.
- Proposition 50: The recent passage of Prop 50 gave him a bit of a victory lap to run on, signaling that voters are still willing to follow his lead on major policy shifts.
The Economy Is Still a Massive Headache
Despite the decent Gavin Newsom approval rating, there is a huge disconnect between how people feel about him and how they feel about their bank accounts.
It’s weird.
About 69% of Californians think the state is headed for "bad times" financially over the next year. People are paying $7 for a dozen eggs and wondering if they’ll ever be able to afford a house that isn't a 400-square-foot shack in the desert. Housing affordability is the top concern for 25% of voters, followed closely by the general cost of living.
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If you ask a regular person in Fresno or San Diego how the economy is, they’ll probably say "poor" or "fair" at best. In fact, 36% of voters explicitly rate the California economy as poor. Yet, they don’t seem to blame Newsom entirely. Or, more accurately, they blame the "structural problems" of the state rather than the man in the suit.
The 2028 Shadow
We can't talk about his approval rating without talking about the fact that he’s basically running for President already. He’s a lame-duck governor now. He can't run again in California, so his eyes are fixed firmly on the White House.
In a recent Emerson College poll, Newsom is leading the pack for the 2028 Democratic nomination with 36% support. He’s ahead of Pete Buttigieg, AOC, and even Kamala Harris. That national ambition actually helps his local numbers. Californians like the idea of their governor being the "leader of the free world," even if they hate the traffic on the 405.
He’s surged 13 points in the 2028 primary polls since August. That’s not a fluke; it’s a calculated branding exercise.
What Most People Get Wrong
The common narrative is that California is a "failing state" and Newsom is the reason why. If that were true, his approval would be in the 30s. The reality is more nuanced.
Voters under 40 are his biggest fans, approving of him by a 21-point margin. They like the climate goals. They like the stance on reproductive rights. They like that he picks fights with Florida. For a younger generation, Newsom isn't just a governor; he’s a brand representing a specific set of cultural values.
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What This Means for the 2026 Governor's Race
As Newsom prepares to hand over the keys to the mansion, his approval rating acts as a gatekeeper.
Whoever wants to succeed him—whether it’s Katie Porter, Eric Swalwell, or a Republican like Chad Bianco—has to deal with his shadow. Right now, about 33% of voters say a Newsom endorsement would make them more likely to vote for a candidate. Conversely, 33% say it would make them less likely.
He is the ultimate 50/50 politician.
But in a state as blue as California, 50/50 is a winning hand. The "Newsom Era" is winding down, but he’s leaving on a high note that few would have predicted two years ago.
Actionable Insights for Following the Trends
If you're trying to figure out where the Gavin Newsom approval rating goes from here, keep your eyes on these three things:
- Gas Prices and Energy Costs: California has the highest gas taxes in the country. If these spike again this summer, watch his numbers dip among Independents.
- Federal Legal Battles: Every time Newsom sues the Trump administration over environmental or immigration rules, his base grows more loyal.
- The 2026 Primary Field: As Democratic candidates start trying to distance themselves from his "failures" to win over moderates, we'll see if his popularity holds up under friendly fire.
The most important thing to remember is that approval ratings aren't about "liking" a person. They’re about whether the voter thinks that person is the best available option for the current moment. For a majority of Californians in 2026, Gavin Newsom is still that guy.
To stay updated on the shifting political landscape, monitor the monthly releases from the Public Policy Institute of California and Emerson College Polling. These organizations provide the most consistent, non-partisan data on how the state's electorate is feeling in real-time. Additionally, watching the progress of the 2026-27 budget hearings in the State Legislature will reveal whether the governor can maintain his "fiscal moderate" image or if rising costs will finally catch up to his popularity.