If you want to start a heated debate at a California dinner table, just bring up the Governor. Honestly, it’s the quickest way to kill the mood or spark a three-hour marathon about the price of gas. But as we kick off 2026, the numbers coming in are doing something a bit weird. You’d think a guy in his final term, facing the usual "lame duck" fatigue, would be sliding into the sunset with dismal numbers.
Not exactly.
The gavin newsom approval rating today is sitting in a fascinating, if somewhat precarious, spot. If you look at the freshest data from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) released late last month and heading into this January, Newsom has actually seen a bit of a second wind. He’s hovering around 54% approval among all adults and 56% among likely voters. That’s a ten-point jump from where he was in the middle of last year.
It’s a bizarre reality. One half of the state thinks he’s the only thing standing between them and a federal government they distrust, while the other half points at their rent check and wonders how he still has a job.
Why the Numbers Are Climbing (The Contrast Effect)
You can’t talk about Newsom’s 2026 numbers without talking about Washington. It’s basically impossible. Mark Baldassare, the survey director at PPIC, has noted for years that California’s governor often benefits from being the "anti-Washington." With President Trump back in the White House, Newsom has leaned hard into the role of the national resistance leader.
For many California Democrats—who make up nearly half of the registered voters—his approval isn't just about how well he’s fixing the 405 freeway. It’s a vote for the guy willing to sue the federal government over environmental rollbacks or immigration.
Look at the December Emerson College poll. It showed him at a +8 net approval. That’s his highest mark in that specific poll for over a year. Why? It’s mostly driven by voters under 40. That demographic is backing him by a 21-point margin. They aren't necessarily thrilled with the "California Dream" price tag, but they see him as a shield.
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The Budget "Shell Game" and the Education Fight
But it’s not all sunshine and rising bars on a graph. Just this past week, on January 9, 2026, Newsom dropped his 2026-2027 budget proposal. He’s trying to be the "fiscally responsible" adult in the room, refilling the Rainy Day Fund and pitching a plan that handles a modest $2.9 billion deficit without total chaos.
He’s even proposing record spending for students.
However, the California Teachers Association (CTA) isn't buying the hype. David Goldberg, the CTA President, came out swinging on January 12, calling the budget a "shell game." The union argues the Governor is withholding about $5.6 billion in school funding guaranteed by Proposition 98.
When the teachers are mad, the approval rating usually feels it a few weeks later. This friction is a classic Newsom dilemma: he’s trying to maintain a "moderate" fiscal reputation for a potential 2028 presidential run while keeping his base in the state happy. It’s a tightrope walk over a very high canyon.
What People Get Wrong About the "Wrong Direction" Stat
You’ll often hear critics cite UC Berkeley polls saying a majority of Californians think the state is headed in the "wrong direction." And they’re right. Usually, about 52% to 57% of people say the state is on the wrong track.
But here’s the kicker: people don’t always blame Newsom for it.
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The December Emerson data showed that 34% of people think the economy is the biggest issue. Another 25% are terrified of housing costs. Yet, Newsom’s favorability stays relatively high. It’s a weird cognitive dissonance. Voters seem to distinguish between "everything is expensive and I hate it" and "I think the Governor is doing a bad job."
Basically, he’s managed to avoid becoming the face of the inflation crisis for a large chunk of the electorate, even if 51% of people in some polls do hold him responsible for the state's specific economic climate.
A Breakdown of the Current Support Tiers:
- The Die-Hards: Democrats are still largely in his corner, with approval ratings in the high 60s.
- The Middle Ground: Independents are the "swing" here. His recent 10-point bump in the PPIC poll was largely thanks to independents moving back into the "approve" column.
- The Opposition: To no one's surprise, Republican approval is in the single digits—sitting at roughly 9%.
The 2026 Governor's Race Shadow
We also have to look at the fact that Newsom is a "lame duck." He can't run again. This usually means people stop caring, but instead, the gavin newsom approval rating today is being used as a litmus test for his potential successor.
The race to replace him is wide open. You’ve got names like Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter, Chad Bianco, and Steve Hilton all duking it out. Interestingly, about 31% to 44% of voters are still "undecided" on who they want next.
Because there’s no clear front-runner, Newsom remains the main character of California politics. His endorsement is currently split down the middle: a third of voters say it would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, a third say less likely, and the rest don't care. That’s a lot of power for a guy on his way out.
Crime: The Surprising Statistical Win?
One reason his numbers might be holding steady despite the "doom loop" headlines is the actual data on public safety. Newsom’s team has been shouting from the rooftops about the 2026-27 budget’s $194 million investment in public safety.
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They’re claiming:
- An 18% drop in homicides.
- An 18% reduction in robberies.
- A 9% decrease in aggravated assaults.
If people actually feel safer, his approval stays up. If they see a viral video of a smash-and-grab in San Francisco or LA the next day, those stats don't matter. The "feeling" of safety is always more politically potent than a spreadsheet from the Department of Justice.
Actionable Insights: How to Track This Moving Forward
If you're trying to keep an eye on where the Governor stands as the year progresses, don't just look at one headline. The "approval rating" is a composite of a hundred different frustrations.
- Watch the May Revision: When the budget gets updated in May, we'll see if he caves to the teachers' unions. If he doesn't, expect his "Strong Democrat" support to dip.
- Monitor the 2028 Rumors: As Newsom travels more to "Red States" to campaign for national causes, his local approval often takes a hit because residents feel he's ignoring California's "home" problems.
- Check the Berkeley IGS Polls: These are generally considered the gold standard for California-specific sentiment. If their numbers start to diverge from the PPIC, something is shifting in the suburbs.
The reality is that Newsom is currently in a "rally around the flag" phase. As long as he remains the primary foil to the federal administration, his floor is likely around 45-48%. He's survived a recall, a pandemic, and a budget crisis. For now, "Governor Slick" (as his detractors call him) is holding his ground much better than the "wrong direction" numbers would suggest.
Next Steps for You: If you want to see how these ratings are impacting the 2026 race, you should look into the latest primary polling for candidates like Katie Porter and Chad Bianco. Their strategies are being built directly on the gaps in Newsom's current approval—specifically regarding housing affordability and the state's "wealth tax" debates.