Honestly, Fresno in January is kind of a mood. You wake up, and basically, you can't see your own mailbox because of the Tule fog. Then by 2:00 PM, you’re wondering if you actually need that heavy coat or if a light hoodie would've been better. It’s that classic San Joaquin Valley dance. If you’re looking at the fresno weather forecast 15 day outlook right now, you’re probably seeing a lot of "mostly cloudy" and "patchy fog" on your screen.
Today, January 17, 2026, we’re sitting at a cool 45°F right now under a partly cloudy night sky. The air is thick—100% humidity—which is exactly why that fog is such a nightmare for the morning commute. But don't let the dampness fool you. We’re heading for a high of 62°F today. That’s actually pretty comfortable for mid-January.
The Tule Fog Factor
Most people look at a 15-day forecast and think, "Oh, cloudy, I'll stay inside." In Fresno, "cloudy" often just means the fog hasn't lifted yet. The National Weather Service in Hanford has been pretty vocal lately about the Dense Fog Advisories. It’s a literal wall of gray.
When you see a fresno weather forecast 15 day report, you have to read between the lines. For the next week, we’re looking at consistent highs in the low 60s.
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- Saturday, Jan 17: High 62°F, Low 43°F. Mostly cloudy with a slight 20% chance of rain.
- Sunday, Jan 18: Expect more of the same, highs near 66°F.
- MLK Day (Jan 19): Mostly sunny, high near 65°F. Perfect for a parade or a park day.
- Mid-week: We might even touch 68°F by Tuesday.
It’s a weirdly warm stretch. Usually, Fresno averages around 55°F to 58°F this time of year. Being in the mid-60s feels like a gift, or maybe just a sign that the ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Southwest is doing its thing.
Rainy Days and Monday (and Tuesday)
The long-range outlook from sources like the Farmers' Almanac and local meteorological data suggests a shift around Jan 19–23. We’re expecting some rainy periods. Some of it might even be heavy.
Rain in the Valley is a mixed blessing. We need the water, sure, but it turns the dust into a specific kind of Central Valley slickness on the roads. If you’re planning a trip up to Yosemite or Shaver Lake in the next 15 days, watch those snow levels. In Fresno, it’s just rain, but those same storm systems are dumping snow in the Sierras.
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Why the Forecast Changes So Fast
Predicting weather in a bowl like the San Joaquin Valley is tough. The mountains trap the air. If a storm system doesn't have enough "oomph" to kick out the stagnant air, we just get more fog. If the wind picks up—like the 2-5 mph breezes we’re seeing in the current data—it can clear things out just enough to let the sun hit the pavement.
The humidity right now is staying high, mostly above 50% even in the afternoons. That keeps the "feels like" temperature pretty close to the actual number. You won't get that dry desert chill, but it’s a damp cold that gets into your bones if you aren't moving around.
How to Handle the Next Two Weeks
If you live here, you know the drill. Layering isn't just a fashion choice; it's a survival strategy. You start the day in a parka and end it in a t-shirt.
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Looking at the fresno weather forecast 15 day trends, the back half of January (Jan 24–31) looks like it might turn chilly again. We're talking sunny but cool. It’s the kind of weather where the sky is a brilliant, piercing blue, but the air has a sharp bite.
Actionable Next Steps for Fresnans:
- Check your tires: The first rain after a dry spell makes Highway 41 and 99 like ice rinks.
- Clean your HVAC filters: The stagnant air during fog season can trap allergens and pollutants in your home.
- Plan outdoor tasks for midday: Between 11:00 AM and 3:00 PM is your "golden window" for sun before the evening chill sets in.
- Monitor the NWS Hanford updates: They are the gold standard for specific Valley fog warnings that generic weather apps sometimes miss.
Whether you're hitting the Tower District for dinner or heading out to Woodward Park, the next 15 days in Fresno are looking remarkably mild, provided you can handle a little morning gray.