Honestly, watching the stock quote Freeport McMoRan feels a bit like tracking a high-stakes chess match between global industrial demand and geological reality. It’s not just a ticker on the NYSE. It is the world’s copper pulse. As of market close on January 16, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) settled at $58.71, down about 2.08% on the day. That might look like a simple red numbers day, but if you've been paying attention to the copper-gold giant, you know the story underneath is way more complex than a Friday afternoon dip.
Copper is the "metal of the future," right? We need it for EVs, AI data centers, and the entire green energy transition. But mining it isn't getting any easier. Freeport has been navigating a tricky recovery after a tragic mudslide at their Indonesian Grasberg operations back in late 2025. That event basically rewrote the company's production script for the next two years.
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The Reality Behind the Stock Quote Freeport McMoRan
Why does this specific price point matter? Because FCX is currently bumping against its 52-week high of $60.71, while sitting far above its yearly low of $27.66. The market is clearly betting on a massive turnaround.
Most people just see the price and think "expensive" or "cheap." They miss the EBITDA trajectory. Wall Street analysts, like those at BMO Capital Markets, recently bumped their target price to $68.00. They're looking at the sequential improvement in earnings expected to hit throughout 2026. While the upcoming January 22, 2026 earnings report might show a year-over-year dip in revenue—roughly $5.05 billion compared to last year—the "whisper" is that production at Grasberg is coming back online faster than the bears feared.
The Indonesian operations are a massive piece of the puzzle. Management expects to start the phased ramp-up of the Grasberg Block Cave in the second quarter of 2026. This isn't just "good news." It’s a fundamental shift. We’re talking about a mine that accounts for roughly half of the company's mineral reserves.
Copper Prices vs. Production Scarcity
Let’s talk numbers. Real ones.
Management is working with an assumption of copper at $5.00 per pound. If that holds, they’re eyeing an EBITDA of about **$12 billion** for 2026. But here’s the kicker: spot copper (COMEX) has been trading around $5.65 recently. That’s 13% above their "conservative" baseline. When you realize that 2026 is going to be a "tale of two halves"—with 60% of copper sales and 80% of gold sales back-weighted to the second half of the year—the current stock quote Freeport McMoRan starts to look like it might be underestimating the year-end surge.
- First half of 2026: Recovery mode, fixing the Grasberg Block Cave.
- Second half of 2026: The "Gold Rush" as high-grade production ramps up.
- 2027 Outlook: Production projected to hit 1.6 billion pounds of copper and 1.3 million ounces of gold.
Wait, don't just focus on the copper. Gold is the hidden stabilizer for FCX. With gold prices hovering near all-time highs, it acts as a "byproduct credit" that effectively lowers the cost of mining copper. Basically, the gold pays for the digging, and the copper becomes pure profit.
What Most Investors Get Wrong About the 2026 Outlook
A lot of folks are worried about the $5.05 billion revenue estimate for the quarter ending December 2025. They see an 11.7% drop and panic. But they're looking in the rearview mirror. Smart money is looking at the Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA multiples.
At the current price, FCX is trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of roughly 7.5 for 2026. Compare that to the historical average or other North American peers, and you’ll see it’s not exactly overpriced despite being near its 52-week high. Kathleen Quirk, the CEO, has been adamant that they’ve "incorporated the learnings" from the 2025 mudslide into their safety protocols. If they execute the Q2 restart without a hitch, that $68 target might actually be conservative.
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Is there risk? Of course.
There's always the chance of another operational delay in Indonesia or a sudden drop in Chinese industrial demand. Mining is a brutal business. You’re literally fighting the earth to get its treasures. But with the global push for critical minerals, the macro tailwinds for the stock quote Freeport McMoRan are arguably stronger than they've been in a decade.
Actionable Insights for Tracking FCX
If you are watching the stock quote Freeport McMoRan this week, keep your eyes on the January 22 earnings call. Don't just look at the EPS ($0.28 is the consensus). Listen for the "remediation progress" at the Block Cave. If they confirm the Q2 ramp-up is on schedule, the market usually prices that in ahead of time.
- Watch the $5.65 copper floor: If copper stays above this, FCX’s cash flow becomes a monster.
- Monitor the $57.70 support level: This was the recent low from January 16; if it breaks, we might see a larger correction.
- Check the dividend yield: It’s currently around 1.02% ($0.30 annually). It’s not a "yield play," but the quarterly 1-cent base + variable dividend structure means you get paid more when the company does well.
The next few months are going to be volatile. That’s just the nature of mining stocks. But for those looking at the 2026–2027 horizon, the "mini-dip" to $58.71 could look very different by Christmas. Focus on the production volumes out of PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI). That is the real engine driving the price.
Investors should verify these numbers against real-time data on the day of trading, as the $58.71 quote reflects the close of the most recent full trading session. Stay sharp, watch the metal prices, and remember that in the mining world, what's underground eventually dictates what's on the ticker.
Check the official Freeport-McMoRan investor relations site on January 22 for the full 2025 year-end report to see if the production guidance for 2026 holds steady at 3.45 billion pounds of copper.