Money talks. In the NFL, it usually screams. When we look at the list of free agents signed NFL teams gambled on this past year, it’s easy to get lost in the sea of zeroes and comma-filled contracts. But if you’ve been watching the tape, you know the biggest check doesn’t always buy the most wins.
Honestly, the 2025 cycle was kind of a fever dream. We saw quarterbacks who were written off as "busts" suddenly leading playoff charges and veteran wideouts proving that age is just a number if you can still beat press coverage.
The Sam Darnold Renaissance in Seattle
Let’s talk about the Pacific Northwest. When the Seahawks moved on from Geno Smith and handed the keys to Sam Darnold, people lost their minds. "The mono guy?" "The guy who saw ghosts?" Yeah, that guy.
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The Seahawks signed Darnold to a three-year, $100.5 million deal that looked like a massive overpay at the time. Fast forward to now: he’s sitting on an 81.0 PFF passing grade and has the Seahawks at a 12-3 record. He’s basically become the poster child for why a change of scenery matters. His rapport with Jaxon Smith-Njigba is unreal, especially in high-leverage spots like that Week 16 comeback against the Rams.
It’s not just about the stats, though. It’s about the context. Seattle didn’t just buy a quarterback; they bought a system fit.
Big Names, New Jerseys: The Skill Position Shakeup
The 2025 offseason felt like a game of Madden with the "chaos" slider turned all the way up. Seeing Davante Adams in a Rams uniform or Stefon Diggs catching passes in New England still feels a bit weird.
- Davante Adams (Rams): He signed a two-year, $46 million deal. Los Angeles needed a spark, and Adams gave them a bonfire. Even as a veteran, his release off the line remains the gold standard.
- Stefon Diggs (Patriots): New England went big with a three-year deal worth up to $69 million. It was a "pay for performance" move that actually paid off, giving their young offense a legitimate WR1 who doesn't mind the cold.
- Najee Harris (Chargers): A one-year, $5.25 million fully guaranteed flyer. Harbaugh wanted a "bell cow" and Harris fits that "punch-you-in-the-mouth" style perfectly.
Then you have the defensive side. The Buffalo Bills snagged Joey Bosa on a one-year, $12.6 million deal. It was a "prove it" contract for a guy whose talent was never the question—his health was. Playing 15 games and racking up double-digit sacks? That’s how you earn your next $100 million.
What Most People Get Wrong About NFL Free Agency
Everyone looks at the "Total Value" of a contract. That’s rookie talk.
In reality, the only thing that matters is the guaranteed money and the structure. When the Jaguars signed Jourdan Lewis to a three-year, $30 million deal, the "sticker price" was $10 million a year. But with $20 million fully guaranteed and $12.5 million hitting in Year 1, it’s basically a high-priced two-year deal with a team option for the third.
Teams like the Cowboys got crushed in the media for "sitting out" the early waves of free agents signed NFL fans were clamoring for. They focused on smaller, one-year deals like Javonte Williams ($3 million) and Dante Fowler ($8 million). It’s not flashy. It doesn't win the "offseason championship," but it keeps the cap healthy for those massive extensions like the one they just gave Osa Odighizuwa ($80 million).
The "System Player" Trap
We see it every year. A linebacker puts up 120 tackles in a high-volume scheme, hits free agency, gets $15 million a year, and then disappears.
Why? Because fit is everything.
Look at what Lou Anarumo did when he took the DC job with the Colts. He didn't just bring his playbook; he brought players who knew his disguise-heavy coverages. Even when injuries forced them to start practice squad guys, the scheme held up because the foundation was built on specific traits, not just "best available" talent.
The Money Behind the Madness
If you want to understand why teams are spending $30 million a year on cornerbacks like Sauce Gardner ($120.4M extension) or wideouts like Garrett Wilson ($130M), you have to look at the cap spikes.
| Player | Team | Contract Detail | Key Takeaway |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | Seahawks | 3 Years, $100.5M | The ultimate "system" win. |
| T.J. Watt | Steelers | 3 Years, $123M | Highest-paid non-QB for a reason. |
| Milton Williams | Eagles | 4 Years, $104M | Paying for the "trench" dominance. |
| Dan Moore Jr. | Titans | 4 Years, $82M | Overpaying for LT is a league-wide tax. |
The Titans paying Dan Moore Jr. $82 million might look crazy to a casual fan. But have you seen the tackle market lately? If you have a guy who can reasonably protect a blind side, you pay him, or your $200 million quarterback ends up on the IR by October.
Actionable Insights for the Next Offseason
If you're trying to figure out which moves will actually work next year, stop looking at the highlights and start looking at these three things:
- Snap Counts vs. Production: Don't be fooled by 10 sacks if 8 of them were "coverage sacks." Look for high win rates.
- The "Third Contract" Cliff: Avoid overpaying players for their third contract unless they are elite-tier stars (think T.J. Watt or Davante Adams). The drop-off is usually a cliff, not a slope.
- Scheme Continuity: If a team changes coordinators but signs "old" free agents, there's usually a massive adjustment period. Follow the coaches who bring "their guys" with them.
The 2026 offseason is already looming. With names like Rashid Shaheed and potentially Chris Godwin hitting the market again, the cycle of free agents signed NFL teams hope will save their season starts all over.
To stay ahead, keep an eye on the "void years" in these current contracts. Teams are pushing more money into the future than ever before. Eventually, the bill comes due. But for now, as long as the TV money keeps rolling in, the spending spree isn't slowing down.
Focus on the mid-tier "glue" signings—the $5 million to $8 million guys. They’re usually the ones holding the trophy in February.