Pitchers and catchers are literally weeks away from reporting to Florida and Arizona. Yet, the Hot Stove feels like it's stuck on a low simmer. Usually, by mid-January, we've seen the massive dominoes fall, but the list of free agents left MLB is surprisingly loaded with guys you'd expect to be wearing new jerseys by now.
It's a weird vibe. You’ve got Cy Young finalists and former MVPs just... waiting.
Honestly, it’s not just about the money anymore. Between the weird RSN (Regional Sports Network) broadcast drama affecting team budgets and some agents holding out for "Ohtani-adjacent" numbers, we’ve reached a stalemate. If you’re a fan of a team that still needs a front-line starter or a power bat, there’s actually a lot of hope left on the table. But the clock is ticking.
The Big Fish: Framber Valdez and the Ace Shortage
If you look at the starting pitching market, Framber Valdez is basically the last true ace standing. With Ranger Suárez recently coming off the board to the Red Sox on that five-year, $130 million deal, Valdez is the clear prize.
Why is he still unsigned?
Teams might be overthinking his 2025 season. Sure, a 3.66 ERA was his "worst" qualified year, but the guy is a literal ground-ball machine. He had a 59.4% grounder rate last year. In an era where everyone is trying to lift and separate, having a guy who forces hitters to beat the ball into the dirt is gold.
Then there’s Zac Gallen.
He had a bit of a "down" 2025 by his standards, but his final 11 starts were vintage Gallen. We’re talking a 3.32 ERA and a massive reduction in home runs allowed. Someone is going to get a bargain here because they’ll look at his overall season stats instead of the late-season surge. If your team needs a guy who can actually give you 180 innings, these are the names.
The Power Bats: Cody Bellinger and the Waiting Game
It feels like we talk about Cody Bellinger every single winter. He’s the ultimate "beauty is in the eye of the beholder" free agent.
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Last year with the Yankees, he was... fine? He hit .272 with 29 homers. He’s only 30 years old, which is basically a baby in free agent years. But he declined his player option, clearly betting that the market would see him as the versatile, Gold Glove-caliber centerpiece he can be.
The Mets and Yankees have both been sniffing around, but they seem to be using him as a "Plan B" if they can't land a trade or a cheaper short-term fix. It's a risky game for Belli.
And don't forget Marcell Ozuna.
The dude just puts up numbers. 40 homers one year, 39 the next. He’s a pure DH at this point, which limits his market, but if you’re a contender looking for a middle-of-the-order thumper, it’s wild he’s still one of the free agents left MLB this late in the game.
Future Hall of Famers in Limbo
This is the part that feels the most surreal. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are both unsigned.
I know, I know—they’re older than most of our dads. Verlander is pushing 43. But did you see his second half with the Giants? A 2.60 ERA over his final 13 starts. That isn't a guy who's "washed." It’s a guy who figured out how to pitch without a 99-mph fastball.
Scherzer is in a similar boat. They aren't looking for five-year deals. They want to win one more ring and probably get paid a high AAV (Average Annual Value) for one or two seasons.
- Justin Verlander: Still has that elite command and a 2.60 second-half ERA.
- Max Scherzer: The ultimate competitor who likely signs a "prove it" one-year deal.
- Paul Goldschmidt: Had a brutal second half (.226 average), but his clubhouse presence is legendary.
- Andrew McCutchen: It’s basically "Pirates or retirement" for Cutch, but he’s still technically a free agent.
Why the Market is This Slow
You've probably heard the term "Luxury Tax" thrown around a lot. This year, it’s a massive hurdle. Teams like the Cubs and Red Sox are hovering right near that line.
The Cubs just dropped $175 million on Alex Bregman. Now they’re trying to figure out if they can afford another big move without trading away someone like Nico Hoerner or Jameson Taillon. It’s a giant game of financial Tetris.
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Also, the local TV money is a mess. Nine teams are currently waiting to see if their broadcast deals with Main Street Sports Group will even exist in a month. If you don’t know how much money is coming in from TV, you aren't exactly going to hand out $100 million to a starting pitcher.
The Underrated Gems Still Available
While everyone is staring at Valdez and Bellinger, there are some really solid "glue guys" still looking for work.
Harrison Bader is one of them. He’s arguably the best defensive center fielder on the market. Even if he hits .240, his speed (85th percentile) and his ability to rob home runs make him a 2-3 win player easily.
Then there’s Zack Littell. He’s not flashy. He throws 92. But he has one of the lowest walk rates in baseball. In a world where bullpens are getting taxed more than ever, a guy who just throws strikes and eats six innings is a godsend.
- J.T. Realmuto: The best catcher of his generation. He's 35 now, but the athleticism is still there.
- Luis Arraez: All he does is hit. He’s won batting titles with three different teams. Someone needs a leadoff hitter, right?
- Michael Kopech: If you want a high-upside arm for the bullpen, he's the one. He still touches 100 mph.
What Happens Next?
Expect a flurry of "one-year, high-dollar" deals.
When guys like free agents left MLB this late, they usually stop looking for the 7-year mega-deal and start looking for a "pillow contract." They sign for one year, hope to put up massive numbers, and try again next winter when the TV money is (hopefully) sorted out.
The Blue Jays and Red Sox still feel like they have work to do. The Dodgers are always lurking. And honestly, don't sleep on the "mystery team" (looking at you, San Francisco) that suddenly decides they have $20 million burning a hole in their pocket once spring training starts.
If you’re tracking these moves, keep an eye on the "reporting dates" for pitchers and catchers. That’s the real deadline. Once the buses start rolling to the training complexes, the leverage shifts back to the teams.
Actionable Insights for the Rest of the Offseason:
- Watch the Trade Market: Teams like the Cubs may trade a veteran to clear space for a late-January signing.
- Focus on the "Second Half" Stats: Don't just look at 2025 season totals; players like Verlander and Gallen were much better late in the year.
- Monitor the RSN Deadlines: The next 10 days are critical for the nine teams waiting on their TV rights payments, which will dictate their spending.