If you’ve ever stood on Main Street in Fredericksburg with a light sweater in the morning only to be sweating through your shirt by noon, you know the Texas Hill Country has a sense of humor. Weather here isn't just a topic of conversation; it’s a lifestyle variable that determines whether you’re sipping chilled Viognier on a patio or clutching a hot mug of Glühwein by a limestone fireplace.
Honestly, the Fredericksburg TX weather forecast is a moving target. Right now, as of mid-January 2026, we’re looking at a classic winter oscillate. Today, Saturday, January 17, is staying crisp. The temperature is sitting at 40°F, though with that northeast wind kicking at 12 mph, the "feels like" is a biting 34°F.
It’s sunny, sure. But don’t let the blue sky fool you into thinking it's warm. The humidity is a bone-dry 20%. Basically, it’s the kind of day where your skin needs extra lotion and your coat needs a zipper.
The Immediate Outlook: Sun, Cold Snaps, and Rising Mercury
The next few days in Fredericksburg are doing that "Texas Two-Step" with the thermometer. We’re heading toward a high of 49°F today, but tonight is going to be a real freezer. We’re talking a low of 29°F. If you have sensitive plants or a literal "dog in the fight" against frozen pipes, tonight’s the night to pay attention.
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Tomorrow, Sunday, January 18, things start to thaw out beautifully. We’ll hit a high of 58°F under clear skies, with a low of 30°F. By Monday, the high climbs to 61°F. It’s a slow build that sets us up for a much warmer, albeit cloudier, mid-week.
By Wednesday, January 21, the humidity jumps from that dry 20% all the way up to 80%. You'll feel that in the air. The high will reach 64°F, and we might even see some scattered rain. It's not a washout, just a 20% chance of rain, but the "partly sunny" vibe will definitely shift to something a bit more gray.
Why "Average" Weather in Fredericksburg is a Lie
When you look at climate charts, they’ll tell you January averages around 60°F for a high. But averages are just the midpoint between "I can see my breath" and "Is it spring already?"
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Take a look at the historical extremes. Back in 1949, Fredericksburg hit -5°F. Yes, negative five. On the flip side, we've seen 90°F in January before (1943). That’s a 95-degree swing for the same month across different years.
Seasonal Realities for Travelers
Most people think summer is the only time to visit for the "full experience," but the weather tells a different story.
- Spring (March–May): This is the holy grail. Highs move from the 70s to the 80s. This is when the bluebonnets and Indian paintbrushes decide to show up, usually peaking in April. It’s also the wettest time, specifically May, which averages over 5 inches of rain.
- Summer (June–August): It gets hot. Like, 98°F hot. August is the brutal one. If you’re here then, you’re either at a winery with heavy AC or you’re in the river. No in-between.
- Fall (September–November): This is the locals' favorite. The humidity of summer breaks. Highs drop back into the 70s and 60s. October is particularly great for the Food and Wine Festival because you aren't melting into your plate.
- Winter (December–February): It’s quiet. It’s peaceful. It’s 40°F one day and 70°F the next.
Managing the Fredericksburg Wind and Sky
Wind is a factor people often forget to check in the Fredericksburg TX weather forecast. Today we have northeast winds, but by Sunday, they shift to the west at 11 mph. These shifts often signal the arrival of dry air versus gulf moisture.
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If you're planning on being outdoors—maybe hiking Enchanted Rock—the UV index today is a 3. That sounds low, but at an elevation of nearly 1,700 feet, the sun hits a bit differently on that granite dome. Even in January, you can catch a burn if you aren't careful.
What to Do With This Information
If you are in town right now or arriving this weekend, dress in layers. That sounds like cliché advice, but it's literal survival gear here. A base layer for the 30-degree mornings and something breathable for the 50s and 60s in the afternoon.
Keep an eye on Tuesday night. The chance of rain bumps up to 25%, and while that isn't much, the cloud cover will make it feel much cooler than the 52°F high suggests.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check the overnight lows: If you're staying in an older Hill Country B&B, ask about the heating—some of those limestone walls hold the cold long after the sun comes up.
- Plan outdoor treks for Monday/Tuesday: The temperatures will be in the low 60s, which is perfect for hiking without the January 17th "wind chill" bite.
- Hydrate: With humidity at 20% today, you'll get dehydrated faster than you realize, especially if you’re doing the "Wine Road 290" tour.
Fredericksburg weather is a bit of a wild card, but that’s part of the charm. Just don't trust a clear sky to stay warm, and always keep a jacket in the trunk.