If you stepped outside in Frederick this morning, you probably felt that crisp, deceptive bite in the air. It’s one of those classic Maryland winter days where the sun looks warm through a window, but the thermometer is playing a different game entirely. Honestly, frederick md weather today is basically a masterclass in atmospheric transition. We’re currently sitting in that weird pocket of time between a freezing dawn and a surprisingly mild afternoon, but don't let the 50-degree peak fool you into leaving your coat at home.
The city is waking up to a bit of a gray blanket. While we saw some early peaks of sun, the cloud cover is thickening up faster than the line at Beans & Bagels on a Saturday. By mid-afternoon, we’re looking at a high of roughly 51°F. That sounds comfortable, right? On paper, sure. But with the south wind picking up to about 11 mph, it’s going to feel significantly cooler if you’re walking down Market Street.
What’s actually happening with Frederick MD weather today
Most people check their phone, see "50 degrees," and think they can get away with a light hoodie. Big mistake. The humidity is hovering around 46%, which is dry enough to make that wind feel a bit sharper than it should. We’re currently under a "Mostly Cloudy" regime that’s going to stick around for the duration of the daylight hours.
You’ve probably noticed the breeze has a bit of a southern lean to it. That’s actually what’s dragging our temperatures up from the sub-freezing 29°F low we hit overnight. It’s a temporary reprieve. While the National Weather Service is only calling for a 10% chance of precipitation during the day, that changes the second the sun goes down.
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The timeline for your Tuesday
- Morning (8 AM - 11 AM): Frigid start. We climbed out of the 30s, but the wind chill kept things in the "winter coat" category.
- Afternoon (12 PM - 4 PM): The "peak." We’ll hit that 50-51°F mark. If you can find a spot shielded from the wind, it’ll feel great.
- Evening (5 PM - 9 PM): Temperatures start a slow slide back into the 40s. The clouds will get heavier.
- Overnight: We’re looking at a low near 40°F, which is actually warmer than last night, but it comes with a catch: rain is moving in.
Why the "Feels Like" temp matters more right now
In Frederick, we’re tucked into a valley, and that topography does weird things to how we experience the cold. Today, the barometer is sitting at about 30.14 inHg. When the pressure is steady like this, the air feels heavy and still, but the moment you hit an intersection where the wind tunnels between buildings, that "feels like" temperature drops five to seven degrees instantly.
If you're planning on hitting the Carroll Creek Linear Park for a walk, you’ll want layers. The water keeps the immediate air a bit nippier. Plus, the UV index is a measly 1 today. You aren't getting any "solar warmth" to help you out, even during those brief moments when the sun manages to poke through the overcast sky.
Looking ahead: The Wednesday rain-to-snow trap
If you think today is indecisive, wait until tomorrow. The frederick md weather today is just the opening act for a much messier Wednesday. We have a cold front barreling toward the DMV that is going to turn our mild Tuesday into a soggy, slushy mess by Wednesday night.
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We’re expecting rain to become "likely" by Wednesday afternoon, with a 70% chance of precipitation. As the sun sets tomorrow and the temperature crashes toward a low of 23°F, that rain is going to try its hardest to turn into snow. Most local meteorologists are saying we won't see much accumulation—maybe a dusting—but the real danger is the wind. We’re talking gusts up to 40 mph after midnight Wednesday.
Basically, today is your "get it done" day. If you have errands to run or windows that need sealing, do it now.
Quick tips for Frederick residents today:
- Hydrate your skin. The dewpoint is low (around 21°F), which means the air is thirsty. Your hands will crack if you aren't careful.
- Check your tires. Rapid temperature swings from 29°F to 51°F cause pressure fluctuations. If your "low tire" light came on this morning, it might not be a leak—just the cold.
- Secure the light stuff. Those 20-25 mph gusts predicted for tonight will knock over empty trash cans or light patio furniture.
The bigger picture for January 2026
We are currently tracking a stronger-than-usual Polar Vortex this year. While today feels like a "standard" winter day, the long-range forecast for Frederick suggests that the back half of January is going to be significantly more brutal. We’re currently about 2 degrees below our historical average for the month.
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Interestingly, the Farmer's Almanac and more traditional models like the GFS are actually agreeing for once: the Appalachians (and us here in the foothills) are in for a colder, drier stretch after this mid-week system passes.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Dress in three layers today: A base moisture-wicking layer, a fleece or sweater for insulation, and a wind-blocking outer shell.
- Prepare for tomorrow's commute tonight: Ensure your windshield wiper fluid is rated for freezing temps, as tomorrow's rain will likely freeze on impact by tomorrow night.
- Monitor the wind: If you live in an older home in the Historic District, expect some drafts to kick up by 8 PM tonight as the south wind intensifies.