You’re driving north on I-25, the cruise control is set, and the New Mexico landscape is doing its usual high-desert thing. Then you see it. The wall of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains rises up, and suddenly, the road starts tilting. Welcome to Raton Pass.
If you haven’t driven this stretch between Raton, New Mexico, and Trinidad, Colorado, you might think it’s just another highway hill. It isn't. At 7,834 feet, it’s a geographical bottleneck where the weather doesn't just change—it pivots.
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Checking the forecast for Raton Pass before you leave the hotel in Santa Fe or Denver isn't just a "good idea." It’s basically the difference between a smooth trip and spending six hours sitting in your car while CDOT plows a jackknifed semi off the road.
The Reality of the Forecast for Raton Pass Right Now
Look, as of mid-January 2026, we’re seeing some weird swings. Today, January 15, is actually surprisingly mild. We’re looking at a high near 62°F with plenty of sun. It feels like spring, honestly. But don't let that fool you into a false sense of security for the weekend.
Mountain weather is moody.
By tomorrow, Friday, January 16, a cold front is sliding in. Highs will drop to about 43°F. More importantly, those overnight lows are dipping into the low teens. When you combine those temperatures with the leftover moisture from recent snow—like the storm that dumped nearly a foot on the pass just a week ago—you get black ice.
Here is the breakdown for the next few days:
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- Thursday: Sunny and warm. High 62°F, Low 20°F. Great for driving, but watch the shadows.
- Friday: Clouds moving in. Much cooler. High 43°F, Low 13°F.
- Saturday: Cold. High 32°F, Low 13°F. There’s a slight chance of light snow (about 20%).
- Sunday: Warming back up. High 54°F.
The wind is the real kicker here. Even on sunny days, gusts coming off the mesas can hit 45 mph. If you’re towing a trailer or driving a high-profile van, those gusts will try to push you right into the next lane.
Why the "Official" Forecast Often Misses the Mark
Most people check the weather for "Raton, NM" and assume that’s what the pass looks like. That is a massive mistake. The city of Raton sits at about 6,600 feet. The summit of the pass is over 1,200 feet higher.
In the world of meteorology, that elevation gap is a lifetime.
It can be raining in the Raton downtown area while a full-blown blizzard is happening at the state line. You’ve got to look at the "Zone Forecast" for the Johnson and Bartlett Mesas. This is where the National Weather Service (NWS) Albuquerque office tracks the specific microclimate of the pass.
The Microclimate Problem
The pass acts as a funnel. Cold air from the north gets trapped against the mountains, creating "upslope" conditions. This means clouds are forced upward, they cool down, and they dump snow exactly where you’re trying to drive.
I’ve seen days where Trinidad is clear and Raton is clear, but the five miles in between are a total whiteout. It's wild. You’ll be driving in the sun, round a corner near the Wootton Ranch exit, and suddenly you can't see your own hood.
Survival Guide: What to do Before You Hit the Grade
If the forecast for Raton Pass shows even a hint of "wintry mix" or "blowing snow," you need to change your mindset. This isn't Kansas. The grades here are steep—up to 6% in some spots.
- Check the cams. Don't trust the text on your weather app. Go to the NMDOT (NMRoads) or CDOT (COtrip) websites and look at the live cameras. If the road looks black and wet, it’s probably icy. If it looks white, the plows haven't won yet.
- The "Three-Second" Rule is a Lie. On Raton Pass in the winter, you need about ten seconds between you and the guy in front of you. If a semi loses traction on the climb, they’re coming backward. You need room to move.
- Check Your Tires. Colorado has a Traction Law (Code 15). If the weather is bad, you are legally required to have snow tires, 4WD/AWD, or at least M+S (Mud and Snow) rated tires with 3/16" tread. If you get stuck and don't have these, the fines are huge. Like, "there goes my vacation budget" huge.
Common Misconceptions About Driving the Pass
People think because it’s an Interstate (I-25), it will always be clear. That's just not how physics works. The New Mexico and Colorado DOTs are great, but even they can't fight a 2-inch-per-hour snowfall rate.
Another big one? "I have 4WD, I'm fine."
4WD helps you go; it does not help you stop on an icy 6% downgrade. Most of the vehicles I see in the ditch at the bottom of the pass are big trucks and SUVs whose drivers thought they were invincible.
What if the Pass Closes?
It happens more often than you’d think. If the gates go down in Raton or Trinidad, you’re stuck. There are no "back roads" that are safe in a storm. Trying to take Hwy 77 or going around through the gravel roads is a recipe for a search-and-rescue mission.
If the gates close:
- Find a hotel in Raton or Trinidad immediately. They fill up in about twenty minutes.
- If you're stuck in line on the highway, stay in your car.
- Keep your exhaust pipe clear of snow if you’re idling for heat. Carbon monoxide is a real threat.
Actionable Next Steps for Your Trip
Don't just wing it. If your route takes you through this corridor, here is your pre-flight checklist.
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- Download the Apps: Get the COtrip Planner and the NMRoads app. These are updated by the actual guys in the plow trucks, not a computer model in a basement.
- Fuel Up: Never start the climb with less than half a tank. If the pass closes while you're on it, that gas is your only source of heat for the next few hours.
- Weight Matters: if you’re driving an empty pickup truck, throw some sandbags in the back. You need that weight over your rear axle to keep from fishtailing on the slush.
- Time it Right: If the forecast looks dicey, try to cross between 10:00 AM and 2:00 PM. That’s when the sun is highest and the pavement has the best chance of being above freezing.
Basically, respect the mountain. The forecast for Raton Pass is your best friend, but your own eyes and a little bit of caution are what actually get you to the other side in one piece.