Week 5 in the NFL is usually where the "lucky" starts to wear off and the "real" starts to show up. We’ve finally got enough tape to know who’s actually good and who just had a soft September. Plus, the byes are finally here—Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh are all sitting this one out—which means you have a smaller slate to obsess over.
Honestly, it’s a weird week. We have a London game, a Monday night clash in Jacksonville, and a whole bunch of backup quarterbacks potentially making messes of things. If you're looking at football picks week 5, you've probably noticed that the spreads are getting wider for the elite teams and razor-thin for the cellar dwellers.
The London Trap: Vikings vs. Browns
Football in London is always a coin flip. The travel, the grass, the weird 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff—it messes with everyone. This year, the Minnesota Vikings are laying 3.5 points against a Cleveland Browns team that is, frankly, in a bit of a tailspin.
Cleveland is expected to start rookie Dillon Gabriel. Welcome to the NFL, kid. Your reward is facing Brian Flores’ defense, which is basically like trying to solve a Rubik’s Cube while someone throws bricks at your head.
Minnesota's offense has been efficient, and the Browns' defense, while statistically solid (ranking near the top in Defensive DVOA), is spending way too much time on the field. I’m leaning Vikings -3.5 here. Gabriel is likely going to be coached into a "game manager" role, but against Flores, that usually ends in a lot of three-and-outs and maybe a couple of "I didn't see that linebacker" interceptions.
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Why the Cardinals are the "Sharp" Play
Look, nobody likes betting on the Arizona Cardinals. It feels wrong. But they are currently 7.5-point favorites against the Tennessee Titans, and honestly? It might not be enough.
Tennessee has been a disaster against the spread (ATS), going 3-18 since the start of the 2024 season. That is impressively bad. They’re starting Cam Ward, who is talented but prone to the kind of "hero ball" that leads to 14-point swings.
Arizona is coming off extra rest after playing on Thursday night in Week 4. History says teams with that "mini-bye" perform significantly better, especially against non-conference opponents. The Titans are currently last in the league in points scored and yards gained. If Arizona’s No. 5 scoring defense shows up, this could be a 30-10 kind of afternoon.
The Underdog Everyone's Ignoring
The Cincinnati Bengals are 10.5-point home underdogs against the Detroit Lions. Yes, you read that right. Double digits at home.
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Detroit is a juggernaut, but their secondary is currently held together by athletic tape and prayers. Terrion Arnold is banged up, and they’ve been giving up big chunks of yardage to any receiver with a pulse. While Detroit should win the game, 10.5 points is a massive number in the NFL, especially for a Bengals team that still has enough offensive firepower to keep things interesting in the fourth quarter.
Monday Night Chaos: Chiefs at Jaguars
Kansas City is heading to Jacksonville, and the line is sitting at Chiefs -3.5.
It sounds like a trap. The Jaguars are arguably the hottest team in the league right now, riding an eight-game winning streak (dating back to last season's surge). Meanwhile, the Chiefs have looked... fine. Just fine. Patrick Mahomes is doing Mahomes things, but the offense isn't the explosive machine it used to be.
One huge factor to watch: Xavier Worthy. Reports came out that his ankle swelled up on the flight to Jacksonville. If he's out or limited, the Chiefs lose that vertical threat that keeps defenses honest. I’m actually looking at the Jaguars +3.5 here. They've been lights-out at home, and their run defense is stout enough to force Mahomes to win it entirely with his arm against a very improved Jags secondary.
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Injury Red Flags to Watch
You can't make football picks week 5 without looking at the training room. This week is particularly brutal for some of the league's biggest stars.
- Lamar Jackson (Hamstring): He sat out Week 5 practice. If Cooper Rush starts for Baltimore against the Texans, that Houston -1.5 line becomes the steal of the century.
- CeeDee Lamb (Ankle): Dallas is already struggling, and losing Lamb for the Jets game would be catastrophic for Dak Prescott.
- Mike Evans (Hamstring): The Bucs are traveling to Seattle without their top threat. Seattle’s defense is currently top-three in yards per play allowed.
Finding Value in the Totals
The Broncos and Eagles are playing in Philadelphia, and the total is set at 43.5. That feels high.
Bo Nix has been predictably up and down, and while Jalen Hurts has the Eagles at 4-0, their offense hasn't actually looked good. It’s been clunky. Both of these defenses rank in the top six in defensive success rate. If you're looking for a play that doesn't involve sweating out a point spread, the Under 43.5 in Philly looks like a very professional way to spend a Sunday.
Actionable Strategy for Week 5
Don't chase the big names just because they're the big names. The NFL in 2025/2026 has been defined by parity and defensive adjustments.
- Tease the Lions/Bengals line. If you can get the Lions down to -4.5 in a teaser, do it. But don't trust them to cover 11 on the road.
- Monitor the Baltimore QB situation. If Lamar Jackson is officially ruled out, the line will move instantly. If you can grab Houston at -1.5 or -2 now, you'll have massive closing line value.
- Bet the Cardinals. I know, I know. But the Titans are fundamentally broken right now, and Arizona is a top-10 team in most advanced metrics that the general public hasn't caught up to yet.
Stick to the data, watch the injury reports until 60 minutes before kickoff, and remember that London games almost always produce fewer points than the Vegas models predict.