If you’ve been watching the ticker for the Federal National Mortgage Association lately, you know things are getting weird. Honestly, "weird" might be an understatement. For years, Fannie Mae was the "dead money" stock—a giant stuck in a government-run purgatory known as conservatorship. But as of January 13, 2026, the fnma stock price today is sitting around $10.85, and the conversation has shifted from "if" they will ever be free to "how" the new administration is using them as a massive economic lever.
The stock slipped about 1.45% in the last trading session, coming off a previous close of $11.01. It’s a bit of a breather after some wild volatility. Just a few days ago, the market was digesting a massive headline: President Trump directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
The goal? Pull down mortgage rates that have been strangling the housing market.
For shareholders, this is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it proves Fannie Mae is still the most powerful tool in the U.S. housing shed. On the other, it basically tells the world that the government isn't ready to let go of its golden goose just yet.
The $200 Billion Elephant in the Room
When the news hit that the administration was "instructing representatives" to go on a $200 billion buying spree, the markets reacted like a cat on a hot tin roof. Traders were trying to figure out if this helps or hurts the case for privatization.
Think about it.
If Fannie is busy being a policy tool to lower monthly payments for homeowners, it’s hard to pitch them as a standalone, private company to Wall Street investors. Analysts at Morningstar recently noted that this directive might actually "deal a blow" to the hopes of a massive Initial Public Offering (IPO) in the near term.
But there is a flip side.
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The fnma stock price today reflects a company with a market cap of roughly $12.75 billion. That’s tiny when you consider they have trillions in assets. Some experts, like those at Alpha Spread, suggest that if you look at the "intrinsic value"—basically what the business is worth if the government just got out of the way—the numbers could be as high as $185 per share.
Compare $185 to $10.85.
That’s the gap that keeps speculators awake at night. It’s a lottery ticket with a very long fuse.
Why the Price is Moving (or Not)
Let’s look at the actual numbers from the last few days of trading. This isn't your typical blue-chip stock movement. It’s more like a political sentiment gauge.
- January 12, 2026: The stock closed at $10.85. It hit a day low of $10.68.
- January 9, 2026: A spike to $11.01, up nearly 1.5%.
- The 52-Week Range: We’ve seen a massive swing from $4.83 to $15.99.
Basically, if you bought a year ago, you’re up over 100%. If you bought at the peak three months ago, you’re feeling a bit of a sting.
The "momentum has cooled," as Simply Wall St puts it. They point out that while the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 2.2x makes the stock look "cheap" compared to peers (who average around 4.5x), their Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models suggest the fair value might only be $2.
How can two models be so far apart?
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Because one assumes Fannie stays a government-controlled entity forever ($2 value), and the other assumes it eventually becomes a private, profit-driven powerhouse ($185 value). You’re essentially betting on a court case or a White House memo.
The Privatization Puzzle: 2026 Edition
There’s a lot of talk about a "second quarter 2026" exit from conservatorship. UCLA Professor Wesley Yin recently warned that a "hasty, insider-driven IPO" could actually risk a second Great Recession by eroding the safeguards that keep the housing market stable.
It’s a heavy accusation.
But it highlights the tension between the administration’s desire to "roll back regulations" and the need to keep 30-year fixed-rate mortgages affordable. If Fannie goes private, it needs to make a profit. To make a profit, it might have to charge more to guarantee loans.
If it charges more, your mortgage rate goes up.
That’s the political nightmare nobody wants. So, we see these half-measures, like the $200 billion bond-buying plan, which uses Fannie’s muscle without giving up control.
Breaking Down the Financials
If you’re looking at fnma stock price today for a quick trade, you need to know the technicals.
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- Support Levels: Traders are watching $10.74 closely. If it dips below that, the next safety net is way down at $8.70.
- Resistance: There’s a lot of "overhead supply" at $11.44. The stock has struggled to break through that ceiling recently.
- P/E Ratio: It’s currently at a nonsensical 5,300x. Why? Because the "earnings" are mostly being swept or held in capital reserves. Standard metrics just don't work here.
What Most People Get Wrong
Most retail investors think a court ruling will suddenly hand them a check. While there have been dozens of lawsuits over the "Net Worth Sweep" (where the government took all of Fannie’s profits), the legal path has been a grind.
The real catalyst is more likely to be a "re-listing."
Currently, FNMA trades on the OTC (Over-The-Counter) markets. It’s the "Wild West" of trading. If the administration decides to re-list Fannie on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the floodgates of institutional money—pension funds, big ETFs—would open. That’s where the real price action would happen.
Actionable Insights for the Road Ahead
If you’re holding or looking to jump in, here’s how to navigate the current climate:
Watch the "Senior Preferred" Stake
The government holds a massive amount of "senior preferred" stock. If they decide to "forgive" this debt or convert it to common stock, it would drastically change the book value. This is the "hidden" variable that could move the price 50% in a single day.
Follow the 50-Year Mortgage Talk
There are rumors that the administration might push for 50-year mortgages to help first-time buyers. If Fannie is tasked with backing these, it ensures their relevance for the next half-century, but it also adds a layer of long-term risk that the market hasn't priced in yet.
Set Realistic Stop-Losses
Because this is an OTC stock with a beta of 1.78, it moves nearly twice as fast as the S&P 500. It’s volatile. If you can't stomach a 10% drop in a week, this isn't the ticker for you.
Monitor the FOMC and Mortgage Rates
The fnma stock price today is tethered to the housing market's health. If the Fed continues to hold rates steady while Trump’s "representatives" buy bonds, we could see a "Goldilocks" scenario for Fannie: high volume and lower systemic risk.
Keep an eye on the upcoming earnings report scheduled for February 11, 2026. While the "net income" numbers are often distorted by accounting rules, the "Revenue" line (currently around $28 billion) will tell you if the core business is actually growing amid all the political noise.