You’ve probably seen the headlines about Florida's political climate lately. It's intense. But while everyone is obsessing over the Governor's mansion or who’s heading to D.C., there is this massive, quiet power struggle happening in the judiciary. Specifically, the Florida Supreme Court. If you’re looking for Florida Supreme Court race polls, you’re likely trying to figure out if the bench is going to stay as conservative as it currently is or if there's a shift coming.
Honestly, judicial "races" in Florida are weird. They aren't like a typical slugfest between a Republican and a Democrat. We use a system called merit retention. Basically, a justice sits on the bench, and every six years, you get to vote "Yes" or "No" on whether they keep their job. No opponent. No spicy debates. Just a thumbs up or thumbs down.
What the Latest Numbers Really Tell Us
Right now, as we look toward the 2026 cycle, Chief Justice Carlos Muñiz is the big name on the ballot. He was appointed by Governor Ron DeSantis back in 2019 and serves as a cornerstone of the court’s conservative wing.
If you look at the historical data, these retention votes usually go the way of the incumbent. In 2024, for example, Justices Renatha Francis and Meredith Sasso both kept their seats. Francis secured 63.1% of the vote, while Sasso pulled in 62.3%. That’s a pretty solid margin. It tells us that even in a purple-ish state, the "No" campaigns usually struggle to gain enough traction to actually oust a sitting justice.
But here is where it gets interesting. While the "Yes" votes usually win, the gap is narrowing compared to a decade ago. Back in 2012, justices were regularly getting 67% to 68% approval. That 4-5% drop in a decade isn't a fluke. It’s a reflection of how polarized the court has become in the public eye.
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The DeSantis Factor and Public Sentiment
You can't talk about these polls without talking about the Governor. DeSantis has effectively reshaped the entire court. Out of the seven justices, five were appointed by him. This has led to a 6-1 conservative supermajority (Justice Jorge Labarga is often seen as the lone moderate/liberal-leaning voice).
Recent polling from organizations like Mason-Dixon and St. Pete Polls often focuses on the Governor’s approval ratings, which directly bleed into how people feel about his judicial picks. When a justice is seen as an extension of a political brand, their retention poll numbers start to mirror partisan divides.
- Republican voters: Generally show 75-80% support for retaining conservative justices.
- Democratic voters: Often hover around 25-30% support, frequently fueled by organized "Vote No" campaigns from groups like the Florida Democratic Party or various advocacy orgs.
- Independents: This is where the race is won or lost. Currently, independents are splitting roughly 55/45 in favor of retention, which is why the incumbents are still safe—for now.
Why 2026 Feels Different
The 2026 election cycle is shaping up to be a pressure cooker. We aren't just looking at the Florida Supreme Court race polls; we’re looking at a state that has seen massive shifts in voter registration. Republicans now outnumber Democrats by over 1 million registered voters in Florida.
That math is brutal for anyone trying to flip a judicial seat.
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However, the "No" campaigns are getting smarter. They aren't just complaining about "activist judges" anymore. They are pointing to specific rulings. Decisions on reproductive rights and the legalization of recreational marijuana have put a spotlight on the court that didn't exist five years ago.
The Bar Poll Secret
One of the best "hidden" polls is the Florida Bar’s Judicial Merit Retention Poll. Every election year, the Bar asks its members—the lawyers who actually argue in front of these people—what they think.
In the last cycle, the approval ratings from lawyers were actually higher than the general public. We're talking 80% or higher in some cases. Why? Because lawyers often value stability and "predictability" over political ideology. Even if a lawyer hates a justice's philosophy, they might vote to retain them just to avoid the chaos of a new appointment.
The Logistics You Actually Need to Know
If you're looking at the calendar, the filing deadline for the 2026 retention race is April 24, 2026. The actual vote happens on November 3, 2026.
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Here’s the thing: Most people skip the judicial section of the ballot. It’s usually at the very end, and the names look like a law firm's directory. In 2024, nearly 15% of people who voted for President didn't bother to vote on the Supreme Court retention questions. That "ballot drop-off" is exactly what incumbents rely on.
What Could Swing the Polls?
There are three big things that could tank a justice's numbers before November:
- A Controversial Ruling: If the court drops a major opinion on something like the "Alligator Alcatraz" immigration center or education-related book bans right before the election, expect the "No" spending to skyrocket.
- The "Lone Dissenter" Effect: If Justice Labarga (the moderate) starts writing blistering dissents that go viral, it gives the opposition a roadmap for their messaging.
- Voter Turnout Disparity: If the 2026 gubernatorial race brings out a surge of young voters, the retention numbers for conservative justices will likely dip significantly, as younger demographics (under 50) currently view the judiciary with much more skepticism.
Actionable Steps for the 2026 Cycle
Don't just stare at the percentages. If you want to actually understand where this is going, you have to look at the money and the specific districts.
- Watch the "No" Campaigns: Check the Florida Division of Elections website for political committees specifically targeting the Supreme Court. If they start raising millions, the incumbents are in trouble.
- Read the Florida Bar Results: When the Bar releases their 2026 poll (usually in the fall), look for any justice who drops below 60% approval from their peers. That’s a major red flag for their legal competence.
- Check the Undecideds: In early 2026 polls, "Undecided" is often the biggest winner, sometimes as high as 50%. The race is decided by who educates those voters first.
The reality is that Florida Supreme Court race polls are often just reflections of how people feel about the state of Florida as a whole. If people feel the state is on the right track, they vote "Yes." If they’re angry, they look for someone to fire. In 2026, Carlos Muñiz will find out exactly which camp Floridians are in.
To stay ahead of the curve, monitor the Florida Division of Elections database for new PAC filings starting in mid-2026 to see where the opposition funding is concentrated.