If you were watching the NCAA Tournament last March, you probably still have the image of Kim Mulkey's sequins reflecting off the hardwood as her Tigers absolutely dismantled Florida State. That 101-71 blowout in the Round of 32 wasn't just a loss for the Seminoles; it was a statement. LSU didn't just win; they bullied their way into the Sweet 16, leaving FSU fans wondering what exactly happened to a team that looked so promising in the ACC.
Fast forward to right now. The 2025-26 season is in full swing, and the narrative around Florida State vs LSU women's basketball has shifted from a one-off tournament beatdown to a fascinating study in program rebuilding versus powerhouse maintenance.
Honestly, the gap between these two right now is all about the "Blue Chips." While Brooke Wyckoff is trying to find consistency with a gritty, transfer-heavy roster, Mulkey is out here playing chess with a lineup that looks more like a WNBA developmental squad.
The Reality of the 2025-26 Power Gap
People love to talk about the "rivalry," but if we're being real, the history has been a bit one-sided lately. Since that March 2024 (and technically 2025 tournament) meeting where Aneesah Morrow dropped 26 points and 11 rebounds like it was a light Sunday morning jog, FSU has been playing catch-up.
LSU enters this stretch of the season ranked No. 6 in the country with a 16-2 record. They aren't just winning; they're suffocating people. They’ve got Flau'jae Johnson—now a senior leader—averaging about 14.5 points and acting as the emotional heartbeat of the team. Then you have the "new" faces that aren't really new anymore, like MiLaysia Fulwiley, who transferred in from South Carolina to give the Tigers even more explosive scoring.
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On the flip side, Florida State is sitting at 6-12. That’s a tough pill to swallow for a program with their pedigree. They’ve struggled with a brutal schedule, including a 99-67 loss to UConn and an 89-67 thumping by Florida. They are scrappy, though. Solé Williams has been a bright spot, recently leading the way with 18 points in their opener against FAMU, but the depth just isn't there to match a team like LSU.
Why the Post Play Defines This Matchup
When you look at Florida State vs LSU women's basketball, the game is won or lost in the paint. Period.
- LSU’s Size: They brought in Kate Koval, a 6'5" sophomore transfer from Notre Dame who has been a literal wall.
- FSU’s Response: Pania Davis is FSU’s answer at 6'6", but she often finds herself on an island.
- The Rebound Margin: In their last major meeting, LSU out-rebounded the Noles significantly. It’s hard to win when you only get one shot per possession.
Basically, LSU plays a "bully ball" style that FSU hasn't quite figured out how to counter without getting into massive foul trouble.
Kim Mulkey vs Brooke Wyckoff: A Clash of Philosophies
It’s kinda wild to watch these two coaches work. Mulkey is all about the high-octane, high-pressure, "look at me" energy that translates into a frantic, transition-heavy offense. She wants the game to be fast because she knows her athletes are faster.
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Brooke Wyckoff, a legend in her own right at FSU, is trying to build something more sustainable through the portal and development. But it's been a rocky road. This season, FSU has leaned heavily on players like Jasmine Shavers and Sydney Bowles, but the chemistry has been "sorta" hit or miss. They’ll look like world-beaters for ten minutes and then go cold for an entire quarter. Against a team like LSU, a five-minute scoring drought is basically a death sentence.
The Recruitment War
You've gotta look at the rosters to see where the divergence happened. LSU’s 2025 recruiting class was ranked near the top of the country. They landed ZaKiyah Johnson and Grace Knox, both five-star talents who are already contributing double digits.
FSU is getting great production from Solé Williams (a junior) and Tatum Greene, but they are playing against a stacked deck. When LSU can bring players like Divine Bourrage off the bench, it’s just a different level of resource.
What to Expect in the Next Face-Off
If these two meet again soon—and the schedules are always shifting—don't expect FSU to just roll over. They’ve shown they can score; they put up 112 on FAMU and 89 on Nicholls. The problem is the defensive side of the ball. You can't give up 90+ points to UConn or Oklahoma and expect to beat a Mulkey team.
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Key Stats to Watch:
- Turnover Margin: FSU has been prone to high-turnover games (24 against Florida). LSU’s guards like Mikaylah Williams will eat that alive.
- Three-Point Shooting: FSU’s best chance is to get hot from deep. Emma Risch and Sydney Bowles have the range, but they need to hit at a 40% clip to keep the game close.
- Free Throw Disparity: LSU thrives on getting to the line. If FSU can't defend without fouling, this game ends in the first half.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
If you're following Florida State vs LSU women's basketball closely, here is what you should actually be looking for:
- Watch the First Quarter: LSU usually tries to bury teams early. If FSU is within five points after the first 10 minutes, their confidence grows exponentially.
- Monitor the Injury Report: LSU is deep, but their system relies heavily on Flau'jae Johnson's availability. If she's banged up, the Tigers' offense becomes much more predictable.
- Look at the Bench Points: FSU needs at least 20 points from their rotation players to stay competitive. If it's just the starters scoring, they will tire out by the fourth quarter against LSU’s press.
The gap is real, but in college basketball, "real" can change in a single February night if the shots start falling. For now, LSU holds the crown, but the Noles are clearly tired of being the underdog.
Next time you're checking the scores, look past the final number and check the rebound stats. That's where the real story of this matchup is written.
Practical Next Steps
- Check the SEC and ACC standings weekly; LSU is currently battling South Carolina for the top spot, while FSU is fighting for tournament bubble relevance.
- Watch the tape of the 2025 Tournament game to see how LSU exploited FSU's high-post defense; it's a blueprint teams are still using.
- Follow the recruitment of 2026 prospects like Jerzy Robinson; where these top-tier wings land will decide if FSU can close the talent gap by next season.